The World This Week: What’s the Future of Foreign Policy Under Trump?

By Mike Froman

Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential election raises many questions, but the one I’m hearing most is this: What kind of foreign policy will he have?

In some ways, this should be an easy question to answer, since we have a whole presidential term’s worth of data to look at. But Trump’s first term was marked by significant volatility in foreign policy, making it hard to point to a fully coherent strategy. What’s more, Trump has claimed that he was held back during his first term by disloyal advisers and resistant bureaucrats, suggesting that his second one may look very different.

What we do know is that, to a certain degree, personnel is policy, especially in Trump’s orbit, where competing cliques of advisers have jockeyed for power and the chance to whisper in his ear. While no one can predict with confidence what specifically Trump will himself decide to do in his second term, we should, in the months before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, get a sense of the team he is assembling. Who, at the end of the day, will have his ear?

We also know that Trump has strong and long-standing convictions on two issues: immigration and trade. It’s unclear exactly how far Trump will ultimately decide or be able to go on these two issues. How many undocumented immigrants will he be able to deport? How high will he raise tariffs, and will he hit everyone or spare our closest trading partners? Despite some uncertainty about extent, there is every reason to believe that on these signature issues, Trump will break sharply from the Biden administration.

On China, there may be more continuity from the Biden administration than one might expect—in part because Biden’s policies were largely a continuation of Trump’s. Biden kept in place most of Trump’s tariffs on China (and added some targeted ones of his own) and largely carried on the hard-edged stance that Trump had articulated in his first term.

On the Middle East, too, expect more of the same: continued support for Israel’s security, likely with less of an effort to moderate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign in Gaza or to address Palestinians’ concerns; a continued lack of interest in reviving the nuclear deal with Iran and a continued interest in applying pressure; and continued efforts to expand the Abraham Accords by further developing the partnership with Saudi Arabia.

The promised return of an “America first” foreign policy is sure to roil allies and partners. On that front, the biggest question mark hangs over Ukraine. Trump promised on the campaign trail that he could end the war as soon as he took office, a pledge that many interpreted to mean selling out Kyiv and accommodating Vladimir Putin. His running mate, JD Vance, has proposed a peace plan that looks a lot like Putin’s, and some of Trump’s advisers, such as Elbridge Colby, have emphasized the need to pivot away from Ukraine to focus on China.

But other advisers and many Republicans in Congress are much more supportive of Ukraine. Mike Pompeo—who served as director of the CIA and secretary of state in the first Trump administration and may well serve in the second one—has called on the United States to “stand with Ukraine in its existential fight for national survival.” Across Western capitals, officials are waiting with bated breath to see which way Trump will go.

Talking to people from around the world over the past few days, I have found that colleagues in Europe are in full panic, those in the Middle East seem relieved, if not jubilant, and those in Asia appear nervous about being forced to choose between the U.S. and China.

There is a great deal of uncertainty, of course, so we should all exhibit humility about our capacity to predict what foreign policies Trump will pursue. But what is certain is that much is at stake for the United States, particularly given the intensifying competition with China, an increasingly troubling “axis of autocracies” (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), and growing calls in the Global South for more effective seats at the table.

(Photo: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

OTHER ANALYSIS FROM THIS WEEK

Trump’s Tall Task Ahead

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

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