World War Zeihan

Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World is a stimulating book with an in-depth analysis of the dynamics at play in major nations in the light of the greatest period of change in foreign policies. There's a lot of food for thought here. 

"Disunited Nations is about what happens when major powers decide they are better off competing instead of cooperating"

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist. Zeihan's core thesis is that the US will pull back from the current global Order, which was imposed post World War II to unite countries against the Soviet Union. With the US guaranteed global military security and the global alliance, many developing countries economically flourished such as China, Russia, and many others. As the US-imposed global Order dissolves, there are going to be major changes for many nations, driven by their geography, demography, financials, and it's history.

Zeihan thinks while the end of American hegemony will be detrimental for many, the US will benefit greatly, for example, reallocation of capital to innovation, defense, re-industrialization, Dollar Diplomacy 2.0. He outlines a deep analysis of the major countries of how each will survive the next phase of Disorder.

The book also covers changes in the US political landscape. George H.W. Bush was the last president who had a strategic vision and interest in foreign policy. American retrenchment started long before Donald Trump's presidency (contrary to popular belief.) George W Bush initiated global drawdown of troops, Obama and Trump continued: "Bill Clinton found foreign policy boring and did his best to avoid it. George W Bush became embroiled exclusively in the Middle East. Barack Obama proved so insular he refused to have many meetings... Americans now have fewer troops stationed abroad than at any time since the Great Depression."

The book came out in Mar'20, into the explosion of the global pandemic, which I think will accelerate some of Zeihan's predictions i.e. Mexico, and China.

I will not give away the details of Zeihan's rationale for each country, but you could see an overview of how he expects this will play out for major countries below. This book is a must-read!