WORLD WAR THREE

The year is 1914. The archduke of Austria Hungary, Franz Ferdinand, and his wife are in Bosnia and Herzegovina for a routine inspection of the armed forces. As the archduke’s envoy is traversing the streets of Sarajevo, a young student by the name of Gavrilo Princip walks from the café where he was sitting, and onto the street. He empties the chamber of his FN model 1910 pistol into the neck of Ferdinand and the abdomen of Ferdinand’s wife, Sophie. It might seem like a simple pre-meditated assassination, however, this murder led to the First World War. But was this really the spark that set the powder keg ablaze? Or was there a series of chain events that would have eventually led to a face-off between the major powers of the 20th century. I am more inclined to the latter. Allow me to explain.

Before the world war began, and even the Second World War. The world powers had already began aligning along several spheres of influence, and each group was growing increasingly wary of the other. Several ‘defence’ pacts existed, such as between Russia and Serbia, Britain France and Belgium, and Germany and Austria-Hungary. These defence pacts are what prompted the major powers to get involved in a petty squabble between two seemingly weak opponents. As soon as Austria-Hungary declared war against Serbia, Russia came in defence of Serbia, and Germany began to militarize in response to Russia. However, this is not a History lesson. My aim is simply to help you recall several historical occurrences so that I can put you into perspective, for what am about to discuss. Sir Winston Churchill wisely states, those who do not remember their history, are bound to repeat it.

In a nut-shell, three things led to the world wars; military alliances, militarization and imperialism, and we are already witnessing these things unfold today. In 2020, the United States spent 766 billion dollars on its military, more than the GDP of most developing counties, and more than the military spending of France, Russia, Germany, India and China combined. For what purposes are the United States spending such enormous amounts of money on their military? I don’t know, but as History teaches us, military spending goes up during war times or when war is close

Secondly, the world powers have come up with new military alliances. Such as NATO, or Warsaw pact, which was formed in response to Nato, even though it eventually collapsed with the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is the reason why Nato has been extremely meticulous not to get fully involved in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Because, if Nato was to get involved, then it would be a full-on war between two of the world’s largest nuclear powers, effectively ushering in world war three. Even so, I believe that world war three is alarmingly close. Exacerbated by the fact that, for the first time, the United States has a relatively weak president who cannot be able to check the power of the East. We might be standing at the precipices of the collapse of the petrodollar as we know it, if several unprecedented developments are anything to go by. Recently, Vladamir Putin announced that he will only accept Ruble payments for Russian gas and oil from unfriendly countries in the European Union and North America. Moreover, Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s gas and 25% of oil. Russia also accepted rupees from India as payment for a consignment of Russian oil, and Saudi Arabia accepted Chinese yuan from China. For the first time, the United States has a worthy adversary. An adversary that it cannot just brush aside by slapping sanctions on them, like Cuba and Iran. Russia enjoys support from countries like China, India, and Pakistan. And together they account for more than 2.5 billion of the world’s population.

We have witnessed a recent spate of unnecessary expansionism from the world powers, and not only in terms of conquest but also in terms of proxy wars and treaties_ ?Nato’s adamant Eastward expansion, almost all the countries that broke away from the Soviet Union joined Nato, the Syrian war, Yemen, and the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. ?There have clearly been a myriad of obvious provocations between the West and the East.

I strongly believe that if events continue to unfold as they are, then we will be the generation that witnesses a third world war.