The world waits...

“Nobody should have any illusion about the possibility of gaining military superiority over Russia. We will never allow this to happen.”

A remark from Vladimir Putin in December 2013 which was interpreted as a veiled threat to the United States and to NATO on the development and deployment of missile shield technologies.

We have all seen the images, the reports and the personal stories from those in Ukraine. Unlike the annexation of Crimea in 2014, this is sustained, violent and inexcusable military action into another sovereign state. Undertaking such action where it can be reasonably assumed there would be significant civilian casualties, or in this case to target civilians, is intolerable and reprehensible by any standard. The aggressor being a member of the United Nations and a permanent member of the Security Council.

In many ways, this was inevitable and appalling in equal measure. Crimea was the indication of a renewed desire for a modern Russian-led union in the former Eastern Bloc. We have poked, prodded and marginalised Russia whilst simultaneously using overtures of a modern world with Russia at the table. The image of the 'Russian Bear' somehow tamed and almost perceived as some form of circus animal - on display for our amusement 'Oops, the Russians are at it again'.

Spend some time in Russia, as I have, and you quickly become aware of three key things. This is a nation tempered by cold - literal and figurative. It brings a resilience to external 'noise' quite unlike any other. It is a nation with a strong sense of national pride and tradition which stretches as far back in history as the country is large. The last is possibly the most poignant now, it is a nation with decades of indoctrination which cannot simply be talked away in a few bilaterals - it is intrinsic and visceral.

This is not to say the Russian people are evil, spiteful, paranoid fire breathing aggressors who wish to impose their will on anyone and everyone. That would be a vile generalisation. It is necessary to divorce the Russian people and the Russian state when one considers these matters. I have met many Russians who take great pride in sharing their hospitality, their culture and their time with others. The same could be said of many nations, the difference here being the state having a distinct personality and intent of it's own.

Sanctions are a real threat to Russia. Marginalising, negating and removing the ability for a national economy to operate is a serious matter. However, we would be na?ve to imagine that this has not been baked into the equation and other means put into place through friendly nations to mitigate some of the impact until the 'special military operation' is completed. We should not ignore the impact that this ultimately has upon the population of Russia. On the one hand, this may rally support from within Russia for the action to be ceased. After over 20 years in power, it is reasonable to think that Putin may be overestimating his influence or becoming somewhat complacent. On the other hand, it may - with the support of state-owned media - reinforce and strengthen Putin's message. Putin has proven many times that he is an able and convincing orator to his people.

Military response on the behalf of EU / NATO / UN seems unlikely as it would be an escalation that cannot be easily reduced later. Putin has already made clear his view on such action in terms of the response that it would evoke from the Russian state. Beyond providing logistics, equipment and support, there seems to be no way or appetite to do more. The imposition of a no-fly zone to protect civilians is seen by many as a reasonable and defensive response. However, Russia is not in a state of war or conflict with either NATO or the EU. Ukraine is not a member of NATO or EU either. Therefore any such action would, potentially, make NATO or EU an aggressor and give Russia the justification for further action. Ukraine being installed into either organisation would, perhaps, provoke likewise. Neither do I see war crime investigations revealing anything more than we already know. Besides which Russia never ratified the Rome Statute and Putin withdrew Russia as a signatory in 2016. It would be an investigation and an indignation without consequence nor just closure.

One of my favourite quotes is that from John Donne:

Each man's death diminishes me, for I am involved in mankind. Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee.

I am involved in mankind. Where I see hurt, pain or conflict I feel both the need and the imperative to do all I can to help. Whether that is a danger or burden to me or not. The actions in Ukraine do not offend me, disgust me or appal me - they hurt me. It hurts me to see a sovereign nation being terrorised by another. It hurts me to see people fleeing in fear from their homes. It hurts me to see casualties being inflicted. It hurts me.

What to do? That is the question. I'm trained as a high risk and remote trauma medic, I am trained in incident and operational leadership, I have a background in strategic planning and analysis and I am an experienced programme director. Do I seek a way in which I can bring these to bear in defending Ukraine and the cause of democracy? Do such avenues exist? Or would such an action be only to make me feel better - that I am doing something. What else is there? An angry tweet here, a philosophical debate there, deep meaningful prayer everywhere? I don't have an answer.

There is one thing for certain - unity. This is a time to be near to each other, to be resolved with each other and to stand together. Whether that is in families, communities or nations. It must be across the breadth and depth of our lives. On the national and international stage we need leadership - resolute, strategic and compassionate - in response. Leaders who will look at the whole picture, will listen to expertise and then take resolved determined action which is compassionate and just in the sole pursuit of the common good. Unity and leadership.

In all of this we must remember one thing - Putin loves chess. He plays the game regularly. The best moves in chess are those which build a strategic position and then force your opponent to aggressively respond. You've read those responses, factored them in and have a counter move each time. Eventually, you break through to win or, sometimes, you end in a stalemate. One has to wonder where this conflict will lead.

You will be hearing of wars and rumours of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end. (Matthew 24:6)

Please note this is a personal commentary which reflects my own views without suggestion, implication or association with any organisation.