The world under Coronavirus (Covid-19)

The world under Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Understanding Crisis:

Each major crisis usually has 3 phases

Phase 1:

Knowledge or learning phase:

The learning phase brings major awareness of a certain crisis, this phase is usually spread faster than the whole crisis itself due to the following:

a-Social Impact and human behavior:

We have been brought up in the world that the distribution of any information is a necessity whether that information is accurate or not; that information may not even have all the facts available. In forms of communication, humans explicitly state to keep information secret because that information is not meant to be shared with others because certain human behavior can cause negative social impacts that is a virus in itself because it can be used as a self-satisfaction tool.

b-Fear

Fear is the key driver in such a phase because of all the information received. When people are receiving news so rapidly from multiple outlets, it enhances fear exponentially. In this phase, fear is driven by information that is out-of-touch with reality.

The Goal:

The goal in this phase should be to analyze the data and gather the actual facts versus myths and build an action plan accordingly.

The Impact:

During this phase, many will be impacted directly and indirectly due to immediate actions taken and it will hurt several businesses across many industries, but it will also create huge short-term opportunities.

The Opportunity:

During this phase, the short-term opportunity is built up and people can capitalize on huge demand with limited supply.

Phase 2:

Living in Crisis:

This phase is very different from phase 1, where you can actually feel and live in the reality and understand the real impacts; this can often be very different from the information received in phase 1 from the multiple outlets.

a-The social impact and human Behavior: (reference impact)

Human behavior and social impacts are often driven by information and conclusions formed by those who haven’t yet experienced the harsh reality of the crisis, solely relying on references that have not been confirmed.

b-Fear

Fear in this phase is very different from phase 1, fear is more sort of an immediate action on the “exit” plan from the impact.

The Goal:

The goal in this phase is to stay calm and use less reference points, relying more on first-hand knowledge from reliable sources and using that to form a decision.

The Opportunity:

The opportunity is to reevaluate the past and build an exit and preventative plan for the next crisis or build a “reference point” based on living experience.

Phase 3:

Post-Crisis:

During this phase, the world has completely changed. The way people act, work, live and take direct or indirect actions. This phase goes through new guidelines and sudden change until it becomes the norm. Think more like post 9/11 - the whole travel experience has changed since then, and the TSA screening process has become the norm.

The impact:

The impact in this phase is long-term and more sustainable 

The opportunity:

Building up resources during phase 1 or phase 2 may have a more positive impact and could be a more sustainable model.

COVID 19:

COVID 19 is a much bigger threat than any other threat, it is not impacting a small geographic area or just one country – it is impacting the entire world. This threat is larger than a war because it is spreading globally.

Mapping with All 3 phases:

Now if we map the current pandemic, we can simply map the impact on phase 1 and phase 2 and apply to phase 3

The Impact:

There may be a long-term impact where people may avoid traveling, dining in at a restaurant, attending large gatherings such as games and concerts or even working in an “open office” concept where more and more collaborative efforts were being made in the past decade.

The Opportunity:

Automation:

The current pandemic has proven to the world that dependencies on the supply chain in other countries is a serious problem which will drive faster automation and in-house product development with less dependencies.

Food:

The concept of in-house, home-grown produce may accelerate by using the technologies to grow plant-based food within small areas including vertically and horizontally in a daily consumable environment, even within a small apartment and in any climate.

Travel:

We should not be surprised when we go through the security screening with TSA requiring us to have a medical screening included as part of the normal airline travel experience and we may see the guideline included for similar “hazardous items” in the carry-on. If you have any symptoms present, you may not be able to travel unless have doctor’s note or they may assign a special seat for emergency travel.

This may apply for all leisurely attractions, and it would not be surprising when your next Disneyland visit includes some sort of medical screening during the security check.

Restaurants:

Whether new concepts are built or existing restaurants adopt further safety guidelines, how food needs to be prepared and food safety in general will be a major consideration.

Hotels:

Similar to room temperature, your room may include hygienic testing results posted during check-in.

Work Environment:

Today, most projects are done internally by hiring staff in-house, outsourcing to others or by bringing professional contractors onsite to complete the projects. With the current pandemic and the economic impact caused to many businesses, instead of using the typical model or dependencies on the vendor-based monopolized solution, it may move to a platform solution where tasks and productivity are more important than the process or vendor management.

Shared Economy:

AirBnb and Uber. This next-generation industry may be in serious trouble similar to centralized versus decentralized computing where we eventually move to the centralized “cloud environment” again. We do not just want to be dependent on any shared services any longer and more automation and autonomous vehicles may take over faster than expected with federal guidelines and regulations moving faster towards that goal.

Others:

We may see this impact in many industries and the idea should be to think whatever industry you belong in - leverage that to build something next…

Learning from the past:

Look at each crisis and see how people capitalize and build the next big thing, whether it was the World Wars, HIV, 9/11, Spanish flu or any other big crisis, visualize the world during and after. You see new companies and industries built during that time and you should be a part of that versus spending time on social media and feeling down that the world is ending…

The thinking process:

When a crisis happens, people normally live and think from the inside but to understand the impact, information gathering and opportunities, you may need to think from the outside and think about the bigger picture

What you can do:

If you are part of a business that is currently going through this cycle, you need to build a two-phase plan for yourself.

a-Survival Stage:

In the survival stage, you may want to build a “preservation of capital” and expense control. In this area, you may need to radically change your lifestyle and build the belief system with compassion of others that this will pass. Further, you can build a plan; start something which impacts the short-term and gives you enough for survival stage and provides you enough for you and your family and even some neighbors and friends.

Survival Stage Technique:

The survival stage technique is simply to capitalize on your existing capital, resources and even your skills. If you are a part of the restaurant industry and going out of work, your skills can be taught online such as cooking channels, writing a book, making the best cocktail at home, or building contents or anything which you can leverage by finding your core skills which you can monetize since many of people are staying at home.

b-Next Phase:

Visual yourself in the next phase today. Instead of suffering and talking about the existing problem, you can form an idea; how can you materialize and be a part of the next “big thing”? Using this “lockdown” and downtime by learning new skills which will be needed in the next “new world” or start something which may be needed at a higher demand when the current models are obsolete immediately across many businesses.

In the End: “Hope”:

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We all know when we are in phase 1 and phase 2, we think the world is ending but once we pass that, we are left with “we could have and should have”, let's “hope” we will pass this together and build something great for the next “big thing” that is going to protect you and your family from this situation in case it happens again.

During these hard times, I will try my best to assist people who are in need of my knowledge and experience in survival and the next stage. I also ask others and encourage them to join me in such a plan so that we can help each other genuinely. Next, I will try to build a “survival stage” guideline and plans in multiple business ideas which can be done in downtime!

God Bless & Good Luck! “We shall pass this”

Note: All images are used for education purpose only