?? "The World Shrinks" ??

"The world is now so small that if you don't like it, you can't get away from it. The truly rich are those who can change the subject." - Julian Treasure

?? Deglobalisation's False Victory ??

I've been writing a lot about The Great Resignation and almost forgot about what is going on globally for all to understand what really is going on. The world is slowly becoming more suspicious, smaller and hostile than in previous years. It appears the advocates for deglobalisation have won - but have they really? ??

?? TSMC's Troubles: A Global Concern ??

Current Hurdles in Arizona and Dresden

TSMC, the largest chipmaker in the world, is struggling. The company's Arizona Fab plant is facing operational issues, while its investment in Dresden, Germany, isn't yielding fruit ($43.8Bn investment). It's not just a problem for TSMC; it's a global concern.

AI's Role in Shifting Paradigms

AI is now a significant player, affecting everything from automation to hiring. It's not just about making more intelligent computers; it's about changing the entire landscape of how we live and work and its dependency on chips is understandable.

Labour Shortages: A Constraint

Both Arizona and Dresden are experiencing labour shortages, not to mention problematic financing due to a recession in Germany for 2 quarters in a row and climate changes of 45 degrees (centigrade) on average in Arizona, making energy costs unbearable. Skilled labour is hard to find, and this doesn't bode well for the industry or the regions they are in.

Supply Chain Mayhem

TSMC's operational hiccups have backed up supply chains for 18 months. Any small piece of the puzzle not fitting could push back delivery times by 6 to 9 months.

?? Scenarios to Consider

1?? If TSMC's Arizona plant isn't operational on time, the ripple effect could be global.

2?? Labour shortages in Arizona and Dresden would slow down production, affecting various industries.

3?? An over-reliance on employees could prove detrimental for employers.

4?? Supply chain disruptions are already hurting businesses; further delays could be disastrous.

5?? The chip price could skyrocket, affecting everything from mobile phones to cars.

?? Intel's IPO: A Game Changer? ??

Intel's Lifeline: The Polish Fab

Intel is making some big moves. With a €4.6Bn investment in a chip fab in Poland, Intel might just find the lifeline it needs. This could allow Intel to produce chips despite TSMC's struggles, offering a semblance of stability.

Global Foundries: The Third Wheel?

A possible collaboration between Intel and Global Foundries, the world's third-largest chip maker, could be a masterstroke. It's not just about making chips; it's about creating a robust ecosystem that can withstand shocks and surprises.

Intel vs. AMD and Nvidia

How does Intel's strategy affect other players like AMD or Nvidia? While Intel is trying to solidify its ground, AMD and Nvidia aren't sleeping. They're making their own moves, creating a complex web of strategies and counterstrategies.

The IPO and Intel's Future

An IPO is a critical step for any company. For Intel, treating Programmable Solutions Group, a standalone subsidiary, as a possible candidate for an IPO, could either propel it to new heights or send it spiralling down. The stakes are high, and the world is watching.

?? Scenarios to Mull Over

? If the IPO is successful, Intel could regain its footing and set new industry standards.

? The global chip industry could experience a renaissance, driven by Intel's resurgence.

? AMD and Nvidia could be forced to rethink their strategies, leading to more innovation.

? If the IPO fails, Intel could find itself in a downward spiral, losing market share and influence.

? The global chip industry could face further consolidation, reducing competition.

? AMD and Nvidia could seize the opportunity, potentially dominating the market.

?? Nokia: The Unexpected Saviour? ??

Nokia's Cutting-Edge Tech

Remember Nokia? The company that once ruled the mobile world is back, and this time it's all about chips. Nokia is employing cutting-edge technology to provide a much-needed boost to Western chip-making.

The AI Game-Changer

Nokia's AI could redefine the rules of the game. Much like Naver's partnership with Samsung, Nokia's AI is set to disrupt the semiconductor industry and other high-end manufacturing sectors.

Microsoft & Nokia: A Second Chance?

Nokia's earlier sale of its mobile division to Microsoft in 2014, might not have been a blockbuster deal, but here's the twist. Microsoft is now venturing into chip-making, and Nokia could once again play a vital role in shaping its future.

Finland: The Hidden Gem

This isn't just about Nokia; it's about Finland. With its push for the CHIPS Act, the country is putting itself back on the global map. And let's not forget its history of innovation and the potential for a new, EU-approved method of data scraping for AI.

?? Takeaways: The Future with Nokia

1?? Finland is getting its groove back, aiming to be a tech powerhouse again.

2?? With its history of innovation, Finland's AI capabilities could be a game-changer.

3?? New EU AI and GDPR-approved methods could disrupt the current data scraping models.

4?? Nokia's partnership with Microsoft could pave the way for a new era in chip manufacturing.

5?? Let's not forget the Symbian OS fiasco. If Nokia's AI backfires, it could dent Finland's reputation for innovation.

?? Russia: A ↓ Rouble and ?? Consequences ??

Interest Rates Skyrocketing

Russia's central bank might have to hike interest rates to a staggering 15% or even 18% (currently 13%) by the end of 2023. The rouble's slump is more than just a domestic issue; it's a global concern.

Japan's Car Ban and Russia's Military

Trade restrictions on used cars from Japan aren't just about mobility; they could be a subtle means to weaken Russia's military, which relies on repurposed engines and car parts.

A Depleting Human Capital

With an extremely low fertility rate and a massive exodus of skilled workers (over 1M), Russia's human capital is draining fast. This situation could lead to significant consequences for its economy and global positioning.

The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has led to a refugee influx that surpasses 6.2 million people. This situation adds an extra layer of complexity to Russia's already precarious economic state.

?? Takeaways: Russia’s Gloomy Forecast

1?? The rouble's slump could lead to a financial crisis in Russia, affecting global markets and pushing migrant workers (6M) to leave the country.

2?? Japan's car ban could be a strategic move, targeting Russia's military capabilities.

3?? Russia's dwindling human capital could lead to a significant brain drain, affecting its global competitiveness.

4?? The Ukrainian refugee crisis could exacerbate Russia's economic woes.

5?? The overall decline in Russia could lead to "Spy Vs. Spy" scenarios in neighbouring countries between Russians and Ukrainians (a feat which has already happened in Bali, Indonesia), further destabilising the region.

?? China: Isolation & Economic Uncertainties ??

Kicked Out: Germany's Cold Shoulder

Germany is kicking Chinese investors to the curb and removing its reliance on the Chinese industrial prowess. The change in investment climate is a sign of China's increasing isolation from the West.

Evergrande: A House of Cards?

Evergrande's trade reopening doesn't spell resilience for China's economy. With the company's chair under police surveillance and the company's debt worth 2% of China's GDP, letting Evergrande fall would have catastrophic consequences.

Indonesia's Pivot Away from China

Even countries that have benefited from China's investments are starting to distance themselves. Indonesia, for example, is curbing TikTok's reach for retailers in favour of local e-commerce options.

The Real-Estate Bubble: A Ticking Time Bomb

Around 70% (and quite possibly up to 85%) of all private wealth in China is tied to real estate, which makes up over 30% of the country's GDP. This dependency on a single sector is nothing short of perilous.

?? Takeaways: China's Uncertain Path

? China's economic size still makes it a global player.

? Despite being isolated, China has the capability to sustain itself to some extent.

? China's technological advancements could still outpace its economic woes. ? China's isolation could reduce its influence over global economic policies.

? The dependency on real estate is a bubble waiting to burst.

? The country's opaque governance means the actual economic situation could be worse than reported.

?? The Great Resignation: The Curtain Call ??

Bluff Called: The Employee's Leverage

Employees thought they had the upper hand with their newfound remote working freedom. But guess what? Employers are calling that bluff, thanks to advances in AI.

Influencers, You're Next!

Remember those influencers who left their high-paying jobs to be their own boss? AI might just replace them too (which is already happening in China), turning the social media world into a battlefield.

Remote Work: A Dying Trend?

With AI taking centre stage, the need for remote work is dwindling. Real estate moguls and employers are grinning from ear to ear.

The Gen Z Quandary

Gen Z will make up about 30% of the workforce by 2030. Yet, they're already showing signs of burnout and fatigue. Employers, you might want to listen up.

?? Takeaways: What's Next?

1?? Employees might need to rethink their WFH dreams.

2?? Employers have the upper hand but need to focus on employee well-being. 3?? Gen Z's rising burnout is a red flag for the future workforce.

4?? AI could be both a boon and a bane for the job market.

5?? The real estate sector could see a resurgence.

?? Takeaways for Business Leaders ??

1?? Leverage AI for Talent Retention

??? Use AI to monitor employee wellness.

??? Implement AI-driven personalised training programs.

2?? The End of Great Resignation = New Talent Pool

??? Highlight job stability in your recruitment ads.

??? Use AI to match potential candidates with suitable roles.

3?? Address Burnout Proactively

??? Implement mental health days.

??? Offer virtual counselling sessions.

4?? Redefine Work Environments

??? Create hybrid office spaces.

??? Implement AI-driven desk allocation.

5?? Focus on Gen Z's Well-being

??? Offer mentorship programs.

??? Implement virtual team-building activities.

6?? Invest in Continuous Learning

??? Develop AI-driven learning paths for employees.

??? Offer incentivised learning opportunities.

7?? Transparency is Key

??? Monthly virtual town halls.

??? AI-driven feedback collection and analysis.

?? Are You Experiencing This Too? ??

Are you seeing similar trends and challenges in your organisation? If so, let's have a chat. My inbox is always open for meaningful conversations.

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