World Population Day: Population Propels Protein Forward

The relevance of protein has never been more clear than the past few months as we found store shelves bare and protein prices spiked. But that was just a once in a century issue spurred by a global pandemic, right?

Maybe not. Today, on World Population Day, 7.8 billion people roam our globe. By 2050, we anticipate about 2 billion more neighbors – and they’ll have a lot more spending power as 3 billion people enter the middle class. It took 200,000 years of human history to reach a billion people, and only 200 years to hit 7 billion.

This middle-class boom means an increased demand for meat, milk, and eggs—as what was once a “luxury” becomes more accessible. Headlines lead us to believe that animal protein is on the decline, but the facts don’t support that rhetoric. In fact, experts expect a 70 percent demand increase in these proteins in the next few decades – at a multiplier faster than population growth.

Everyone deserves high-quality protein – and our industry, and the people that make it up—are making an impact, but there’s still work to do. As I’ve reflected on the challenges of the past months, I come back to these three truths.

The Basics Matter

Taste, cost, nutrition are always consumers’ key decision drivers. When the shelves emptied, what was the last thing to go? Higher-priced niche products – alternative proteins, cage-free eggs, organic milk. Certainly, the lack of the basics drove the trial of these niche products to a wider group of consumers. Will any of these trials become repeat users? Over the past 15 weeks has shown growth in the sales of plant-based meat alternatives, but the overall dollar and volume share are fractions when compared to overall meat sales—hitting a low of 0.5 percent of total meat department sales the week of April 12. 

These unprecedented times have allowed many of us to enjoy home-cooked meals, actually sitting with family at a kitchen table. And as families have a choice of what the protein they are putting on their plates, taste, cost and nutrition still matters, and animal-based protein is still king.

Protein Needs to Be Affordable

The pandemic drove a blip in the supply chain, but unemployment also affected a portion of the population’s ability to procure protein, relying on local food banks and pantries. As the most affordable, practical protein source available – about half the cost of alternatives - it is likely that retail meat demand will continue to track well above 2019 levels for the foreseeable future. One of the biggest winners – hot dogs! Retail meat department dollar sales were up year-to-date 24.2 percent— an additional $6.2 billion sold versus the same time period in 2019 – or 1.2 billion pounds of additional meat and poultry.

At the same time, need has spiked. And it’s affected some populations harder than others. Nearly four in 10 Black and Hispanic households with children can’t feed their families during the pandemic – threatening the health of millions of American children. The World Food Programme predicts that globally 130 million more people will be pushed to the brink of starvation this year alone.

High-quality protein is a necessity –not just a luxury for those that can afford it. That’s the ultimate goal this World Population Day. An opportunity to intentionally step back, reflect, and take action to feed a growing population. 

Farmers, Ranchers and Innovation are Essential

Nothing reminded us more of the impact that farmers and ranchers have on our food supply than going to the grocery store in the past few months. Producers were met with challenges they couldn’t control – closed processing plants, disrupted supply chains, evolving retail and restaurant requirements – and animals that were on a strict timeline.

Like producers always do, they pivot. They adjust. They modified diets. They approached their timelines and schedules differently. They utilized resources in ways that they do at any time they are challenged. Whether it’s African Swine Fever or a global pandemic, farmers and ranchers are visionary, humble, innovative, durable and resilient.

As our next normal evolves, and our population keeps surging toward nearly 10 billion people, I know our farmers, veterinarians, and companies like Elanco, will keep innovating to ensure the shelves are stocked with affordable, nutritious meat, milk and eggs for all.