The world is not made up only of dry facts
"The world is not made up only of dry facts (what we might call data today); rather, these facts are glued together by an intricate web of cause-effect relationships" - Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie, The book of Why (1)
E.g. to do a good run/race I need good shoes, but I also need to exercise, practice and develop a running skill. But, on the day of the race I need to make sure I'm not sick, have gotten the right nutrient balance, understand how to navigate the GPS on my watch, brought the right supplements and wear the right clothing etc..
Judea Pearl suggests that in order for us to understand how the world works we first need a theory of why things happen. E.g. if I'm to be successful at running these things need to be in order ..
But he argues that most data models don't have this theory in place. They are just trying to make assumptions about what is happening based on the correlations they see in the data it has access to.
The result is a world without connections where there is an assumption that if A happens (by correlation) B will happen to.
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Pearl argues that in order for us to make the most out of the data and machines we invest in we first have to create our own model for how things work (he recommends a Causal Diagram (2)), then with a map of the known relationships and force of influence between things we also have a recipe for what data we need to collect.
Visit this article on how to get started by making the simplest possible causal diagram for your situation / market etc.: https://everythingnewisdangerous.medium.com/how-to-make-a-system-map-in-the-simplest-possible-way-a8cce6b7acae
Sources and further reading:
(1). Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie, The Book of Why, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Why
(2). Helge Tenn?, How to make a system map (in the simplest possible way), https://everythingnewisdangerous.medium.com/how-to-make-a-system-map-in-the-simplest-possible-way-a8cce6b7acae
VP of Marketing @ PDI
2 个月Brilliant Helge.
Founder & Managing Director | Former Marketing Excellence Architect @ Microsoft Corp. | Helping organizations close their customer knowlege gap and discover market opportunities
2 个月Helge Tenn? I love that you aim at understanding causality and "connecting the dots". This is absolutely necessary because often enough this activity is neglected in business. At the same time, I would issue a caution: Drawing conclusions based on assumptions, meaning that they are not based on real-world customer input, can be wrong, even if your conclustions re. cause and effect are all plausible. Plausability can even lead you into the wrong direction. Cause and effect should be in the eye of the beholder in my mind. One example: I love to run. I run regularly. I've been using the same pair of running shoes for 13 years. Why? Just because I didn't care to buy new ones when I thought they are doing their job decently (no pains in my knees). One of my good friends would say "Eckhart, you definitely need a new pair of shoes. In fact, you should buy new shoes every year." Obviously, I would strongly disagree. I must admit I have not read the book so I don't know the full theory. But often decisions look irrational to us when in fact they are fully rational to the decider. So, to strenghten your model, you should base it on customer input. Just my 2 cents.