World Elections could impact Energy Transition policies & legislation heading into COP29

Earlier this year Paul Wiseman wrote for Industrial Info Resources (IIR) on how Global Elections May Affect Energy Transition Trajectories Promised in COP28

Elections scheduled for 2024 will affect around half the world's population and gross domestic product (GDP). These elections, in turn, could affect the promises made at the COP28 climate change conference, wherein the "beginning of the end of fossil fuels" was trumpeted loudly. The United States, the EU, India, Venezuela, Indonesia, Mexico and Ukraine (depending on what the war allows) are among the most significant COP28 attendees on the 2024 election list.

Where it was stated the overall picture seemed to be that..

While climate change issues are not likely the driving forces behind the upheaval, they will be affected, nonetheless. Will right-leaning leaders delay or undo completely some of the green funding? Those committed to the energy transition have already proclaimed that current funding levels and projections are light years short of what is needed to attain the 1.5-Centigrade 2050 goals embraced by most nations.

Where I held (& still hold) the opinion that "voters have not yet decided that energy transition and climate change are more important than their immediate energy and economic security. They do not yet see themselves as part of the global community, working across political and economic borders to innovate their way into a more sustainable future."

Now Mexico voters have gone to their polls to vote for Claudia Sheinbaum who -- as John Egan recently wrote for Industrial Info in Mexico's New President Inherits an Economy in Shambles --

will inherit "a number of headaches" when she is inaugurated later this year, a longtime observer of Mexican affairs told Industrial Info in an interview this week. Under Sheinbaum's predecessor, Andrés Manual López Obrador, or AMLO, Mexico's economy deteriorated significantly. Notably, liberalization of the Electric Power, Oil and Gas and Metals and Minerals sectors stalled after AMLO was elected president in 2018. State-run enterprises have deteriorated since then, largely because foreign companies and capital have largely been shut out of Mexico.

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Continuing AMLO's policies will make Mexico poorer, more disorganized and more dangerous, with a crumbling infrastructure and an economy ever-more dependent on foreign remittances, Tony Payan , Ph.D., director of the Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy U.S.-Mexico Center told Industrial Info.?

In short, a country nearing collapse. The continuation of her predecessor's policies shutting out foreign investment in prized state-run enterprises means Mexico's country risk will continue to rise, he predicted, adding: "The financial markets sent a shot across the bow to Mexico after Sheinbaum's election when the currency and stock market fell. The financial community knows Mexico needs to course-correct, but I see no indication that will happen until and unless a financial or fiscal crisis forces meaningful change."

India has wrapped up the biggest election here in 2024. And, Paul Wiseman writing for Industrial Info shared his thoughts in his article Electing the Future: India's Modi Continues as PM, but Faces Energy Challenges

Of the recent elections in India, in which longtime prime minister Narendra Modi's Bharativa Janata Party (BJP) lost its ability to govern without a coalition, one analyst was quoted by 彭博资讯 as saying, "This is not an election--it is a kind of political earthquake."

niranjan sahoo , senior fellow with the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation added, "Even if Modi becomes the prime minister, his position will be diminished to a great extent. He will not be the same Modi."

As the world's most populous nation (about 17.8% of the world's people) struggles with economic issues and energy/climate issues, a Modi government that must include other parties may face compromises that alter many policies, including the nation's energy balance.

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The biggest challenge is that the nation needs a massive influx of all kinds of energy to supply energy demands that are expected to double over the next 50 years. With Modi's mandate gone due at least in part to a growing gap between rich and poor, his administration will have to use creativity and a large number of rupees to stay in power and to meet the growth demands.

The nation's climate, for centuries known as one of the world's hottest already, has struggled to meet cooling demand as temperatures have soared in recent weeks. Peak electricity demand broke records at 250 GW recently, causing blackouts in many areas.

And we witnessed South Africa Voters Push Back on ANC's 30-Year Rule as written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info.

After receiving just 40% of the vote in recent South African elections--the first time since 1994 they have not had a sufficient mandate to form a government without help--Prime Minister Cyril Ramophosa's African National Congress (ANC) is at a crossroads.

And so is the nation's energy policy.South Africa's constitution requires a government to be formed among parties accounting for at least 50% of the vote. ANC's 40%--almost double that of the second place 22% garnered by the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA)--will be able to take the lead in forming any coalition.

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South Africa's 2016 Paris Climate Accords pledge was to reduce emissions by between 350 and 420 million tonnes by 2030, according to energytransition.org. Power generation accounts for about half its emissions. Under the Paris plan, the nation pledged to decommission six of its eight coal-fired plants by 2030, shutting down the other two by 2035. So far none have been decommissioned, mainly because there is little to replace them with.

The organization recently interviewed Dr. Alex Leferna, General Secretary of Climate Justice Coalition and Post Doctoral Research Fellow at Nelson Mandela University, who said the delay was due to the government needing an additional decade to ramp up natural gas and nuclear power options.

Now in the EuroZone it seems a citizen mandate was passed for in At the Next Light, Turn Right.. again written by Paul Wiseman.. EU Voters Push Back Against Energy Transition, Immigration

In line with pre-election polling, European Union (EU) voters last weekend slashed their support for European Parliament (EP) parties espousing energy transition and environmental issues, largely due to concerns over the cost and inconvenience of switching away from fossil fuels. Stemming the tide of refugees flooding Europe from the Middle East and elsewhere was another foundational issue.

This is a significant reversal of fortune for climate activists, who received record numbers of votes in the previous election cycle of 2019. Based on that election, the EU adopted the Green Deal, a major collection of legislation setting goals and procedures for reaching carbon-neutral status by 2050.

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Many green parties took it on the chin, with France's Renew Europe losing 22 seats in the EP, followed by the Greens/European Free Alliance. Renew Europe is the party that includes the French president.

This change has been on the radar for at least several months. Between 2019 and 2023, according to polls cited in February 2024 by POLITICO, support for the 2050 climate goals dropped in all but eight of the EU's 27 nations--and three of those eight just remained even. Those with increased support were Luxembourg, Greece, Malta, Ireland and Croatia. The biggest drops were seen (in order of biggest to smallest change, from -15% to -11%) were in Finland, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania. This was borne out in the actual elections.

In the Netherlands, far right parties including that of Geert Wilders gained the most seats, but the green-left's total is still more. Current Prime Minister Mark Rutte, in the position since 2010, resigned in 2022 but is leading in an interim role until this election is settled and a new prime minister is elected.

All of these elections are in the context of both energy & climate scenarios which were touched upon by John Egan for Industrial Info's article BloombergNEF Report Lays Out Steps, Costs of Two Climate-Change Scenarios

BloombergNEF 's recent report, "New Energy Outlook 2024: Energy and Climate Scenarios that Connect the Dots," is a good news-bad news dispatch from the climate change front.

The good news? "Progress has been made--the energy transition has accelerated in recent years, with the pace of clean technology deployment and capital investment surging to record levels," the report begins.

The bad news? The low-hanging fruit--things that are, relatively speaking, cheap and easy--already has been harvested.

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In a separate report published earlier this year, BloombergNEF estimated that $1.8 trillion was invested in clean energy technologies in 2023. The "New Energy Outlook 2024" report said annual investments will need to grow 204%, to about $5.4 trillion over the 2024-2030 period. Then, in the 2030s, annual investments must rise a further 48%, to about $7.9 trillion before declining slightly in the 2040s to roughly $7.4 trillion per year.

"These investment numbers truly boggle the mind, but it must be asked, 'What alternative is there'?" one inquires. "NASA climate scientist James Hansen identified global climate change nearly four decades ago, and it took the world's nations three decades to even come up with a treaty to limit CO2 emissions, which many nations are not fulfilling."

"Time is the mortal enemy," I believe. "With the loss of decades due to inaction by nations, companies, non-governmental institutions and individuals, we are left with an ever-dwindling window to take bold and aggressive action. By necessity, the current and future steps that are needed to fight the climate crisis will make the prior decade's efforts pale in comparison."

Having witnessed some of these recent elections one wonders what lies in store as COP29 draws nigh. Will Nations be able to honor the pledges made during COP28? or are pivots in store?

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