World Cup 2022: Between Predicted & Actual Outcomes

The FIFA world cup made this year very special. The competition was intense, successful, and mesmerizing. The group stage was horrific with qualifications decided until the last minute. The knockout stage as well with the final being probably the best ever.

"Every player dreams of winning the World Cup, and there are very few who are fortunate enough to actually do it." - Carles Puyol

To keep a written memory, I write this article where I compare predicted and actual outcomes. I also list some of the reasons behind the difference observed, especially the ones that were probably not taken into consideration in statistical model development.

Oxford Predictions

For predictions, let us consider the popular oxford mathematical model, which was probably the most viewed one. One of the clear aspects of this model is prioritizing big countries without showing any exceptions. For instance, from the quarter-finals, only big countries remain. Thus, we can infer that this model clearly took historic performance in various competitions and countries' FIFA rankings.

Actual Outcomes

Although Oxford's model forecasted 6 out of 8 teams correctly in the quarter-finals correctly, the actual outcomes were different in other stages with some countries reaching quite further than usual. The winner also was not predicted accurately.

Gap between Predicted and Actual Outcomes

Considering each circle, the number of circles predicted accurately (including the position) is 16 out of 30, i.e., around 53%. Before moving into analysis, we first observe more African and Asian countries than usual. These countries took the places of other European and South American countries. For instance, Uruguay, with two World Cup titles, did not qualify from the group stage. The same happened to Germany (with four titles) and Belgium, the second in the FIFA ranking. Belgium's absence in the knockout stage impacted significantly the predictions of Oxford's mathematical model. While the top half was predicted accurately starting from the quarter-finals, the bottom half was jumbled because of the exciting competitions in Groups E and F. From the former, Japan qualified first and Germany left. From the latter, Morocco qualified first and Belgium left.

Gap Analysis

Being fond of mathematical models that mimic real life, I must assume that making predictions is very complicated. This World Cup is a great example. The gap highlighted above is due to several factors and aspects that were probably not considered. I also doubt a little bit whether the model designer has enough information literacy about football worldwide and the recent trends we have been observing in recent years. For this world cup, these factors were probably not taken into consideration:

Place. This is the first World Cup organized in an Arab & Asian Country. It implies that more audiences will attend to support countries from these two communities. The fans are usually qualified as the 12th player. Morocco fans are a great example.

Time. This is the first World Cup organized during the months of November and December. This period is when competition in various leagues and continents is at its highest. Thus, several players are in top form. It varies a lot from the usual World Cup in summer.

Shift. Over the last decade, many world-class players have started opting to play for countries in Africa and Asia. Thus, we started witnessing African and Asian countries beating the strongest teams. In this World Cup, Brazil lost to Cameroon, Germany lost to Japan, Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia, France lost to Tunisia, Portugal lost to South Korea, and Belgium lost to Morocco. This shift will be more significant in the upcoming FIFA World Cups.

Age. Some teams are quite old. The timing is in the middle of the competitions. Thus, some countries were not able to keep up with the intensity. A clear example is Belgium which suffered significantly from the aging of its players.

Group Complexity. Some groups were qualified as death groups. Competing in these groups gives a huge boost to the subsequent stages of the competition. Group F is a great example. Indeed, competing and qualifying from this group ended up being of great value for Morocco & Croatia which ended up beating giants such as Portugal & Brazil and reaching the semi-finals.

Incentive. Some countries were more inflamed than others. It was observed that Morocco and Croatia played with strong organization and defensive tactics. This organization and commitment allowed them to reach quite far. Furthermore, Moroccans were supported by a large audience including players' families, and especially moms.

To improve our mathematical models, like in football tournaments, rankings and history are no longer efficient. It is important to have enough information literacy. The latter comes from watching different countries and competitions in Europe, Africa, America, and Asia. For Oxford's model, Morocco was definitely the country that disturbed it.

This world cup was a masterpiece. Seeing my beloved country, Morocco, reaching that far and opening the path for many African and Asian countries to seek higher and achieve more is an everlasting joy. Football is becoming more and more established in several countries with no large differences between Europe/South America and the remaining Continents. Let us keep watching :-) !

Did you enjoy the world cup in Qatar? Please feel free to share your thoughts on the insights I've shared in this article. I look forward to your comments in the section below.