As the World Burns
New York, my city, has always been plagued by episodes that keep us thinking about the way things might end.? Blackouts, shootings like George Floyd’s, pandemics -- because we’re such a highly concentrated population we take everything with a bit more of a gut punch.
On June 6, the smoke rolled in slowly like an acrid fog. It didn’t smell like weed or gyros … the burning smell in the air harkened back to the smells of Sept. 11th, 2001, when the towers went down in flames. NYC has a lot of olfactory stimuli; burning is atypical.?
That night, the sunset was a big red ball amidst a sepia haze. But New Yorkers gotta scurry, so, oblivious we attended a Broadway production, where singers were being pushed to hit the high notes as the smoke thickened inside the theatre. Unbeknownst to us, or, I suspect the cast of the play, other productions like Camelot and Hamilton had already been canceled. So was the NY Yankees game. The F.A.A. issued a June 6th? alert that inbound flights to La Guardia Airport would be grounded because of low visibility.
?By? June 7th we were in the cupboards where the stack of N95 masks that we’d only recently put away, were called for a return to duty. Watery eyes, constricted throats, and a dulling headache were shared symptoms felt by any New Yorker who’d been out and about. It was pandemic deja vu only we protected ourselves from the air we breathe rather than viral transmission.? Courts and many schools were closed. It was even declared an alternate side of the street parking holiday so car fumes could not add insult to injury. We were amazed when we heard that smoke was coming from so far away.?
That day, I decided to keep my scheduled business lunch in midtown. There was this “Weimar Republic”? mood at the new Jose Andres restaurant. Amidst the gaiety of a return to the normal business crowd, we were all watching the skies darken outside the restaurant window. Commuters, tourists -- everyone was trying to capture the most Instgrammable moments of the strange streets. I met a woman who worked at an NJ hospital who reported that the ER was overflowing, mostly with folks who had asthma or other respiratory conditions.??
Air purifiers and masks are the new toilet paper.? Armbrust American, a mask manufacturer in Texas, told The Wall Street Journal that sales of one N95 model surged 1,600% from Tuesday to Wednesday. Home improvement store,? Lowe’s, reported that mask demand was up in areas affected by wildfire smoke. On Amazon.com, sales of air purifiers increased by 78% during the past seven days, while sales of air filters increased by 30%, according to Jungle Scout, which tracks data from thousands of merchants who sell their products on Amazon in the U.S..
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First by Rain, Then By Fire
?Wildfires, as we know, have worsened over the past decade, quickly reversing decades of improvements in air quality made under the Clean Air Act, according to research published by Stanford University.? The study goes on to point out that the dangers of wildfire smoke have gone from rarity to routine, with the number of people exposed to wildfire smoke increasing by 27-fold.? And the economic toll is being quantified. The toll of smoke on the U.S. economy is now about $125 billion a year, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. And studies show a true correlation between dryness, hot temperatures, and forest fires.?
How Do We Respond??
On an individual level, just like reading the labels on the products we buy, we’re going to need to learn new air pollution cognitive skills.? I go to the NY Health Department daily now.? You should do the same where you live. The EPA has an app to check current and forecast air quality information for planning daily activities and protecting your health. The app automatically displays the current AQI (Air Quality Index) for your local area or any area you wish to check and allows you to store multiple areas for quick reference.? For reference purposes, normal air quality gets a score of 50-70.? NYC reached 490 ( out of 500)? on the AQI index. Air purifiers, while selling like wildfire (irony intended) will not work if they’re simply your garden variety.? Consumer Reports says you want one with a HEPA filter and a large fan that helps to force air through a fine mesh to trap particles. Keep your mask on but don’t reprise your cloth favorites. N95 and KN9 masks are best to filter out particulates in the smoke-laden air.?
On a societal level, we need to look for best practices in wildfire management.? In California, they are increasing the number of prescribed fires and other forest management techniques to help reduce the risk of out-of-control megafires.? Controlled fires that rid areas of brush and have seen some success and thinning out areas can work too.?
In 1992, Mexico City was declared the city with the most polluted air. They turned things around a bit deploying measures that some considered extreme. These included the removal of lead from gasoline, implementation of catalytic converters in automobiles, reduction of sulfur content in diesel fuel, closure of an oil refinery, substitution of fuel oil in industry and power plants with natural gas, reformulation of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking and heating, reinforcement of vehicle inspection and maintenance program, and implementation of “no driving day (Hoy No Circula)” rule.? The situation is greatly improved and ongoing maintenance and new ideas are being implemented.
We’re beginning to learn to prepare for the unexpected now that the unexpected has become the norm.
To our friends in Canada,??
We were mildly inconvenienced. You were faced with a new reality, too.? Our thoughts are with you.?
Interesting that my Google Maps app now displays air quality and forest fires along with its other displays.
By far the biggest issue in recent history (since 1980) is forest management. Smokey Bear policies of treating fires like an unnatural force that needed to be stopped put us where we are today. Dryness and heat certainly correlates, but the real longer-term driver is misguided management policies. Interestingly, wildfires actually aren't increasing globally: NASA satellite data shows a downward trend in global fire acreage from 2003-2019: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires The fact that it's the US & Canada that show an increasing trend since 1980 vs the recent global downward trend at least partially supports that it's policy vs climate. Even more interesting: Pre-1980 wildfire data shows levels 5x the present in the 20s and 30s. The NIFC discounts it because they claim not to know the data source before 1983, but it's hard to imagine a reporting change could account for a 500% difference in magnitude. Here's the original data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201224043154/https:/www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html. Finally, heres a PNAS paper from 2012 that talks about a "late 20th century fire deficit": https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109
Founder: Wall Street Green Summit I New York Times Best Selling Author I TEDX Speaker I Globally Recognized Thought Leader on the Climate Change Technology Solutions
1 年Thanks Robin. I downloaded this app to see NYC air quality. It was over 400 in some parts of the city. It's called PurpleAir.com and can be used for all jurisdictions. We will see more of these events as climate change manifests itself in more "in your face" ways. I have worked 50 years on Air Quality issues and it is tragic to see most of that work go up in smoke!
Global Communications Lead at i.am.Money / will.i.am
1 年Sorry that the air quality has plunged to the depths. Hoping for rain that will help clear out some of the hazardous smoke and particulate matter.
Founder & Principal - Whitehead Consulting "on the trail less traveled, join me"
1 年Robin Raskin so sad for you and the folks in NYC as well as so much of the north east and Canada. A friend in Cleveland shared the horrors of dealing with the #smoke and #asthma. Wishing everyone a safe time until the #rain comes and #cleans the #air.