The World in 60 Seconds - September 6, 2016

I'm back from vacation, so it's time for the World in 60 Seconds!

Trump: What are his chances now?

They still exist. I wish that wasn’t true, but uh…I’d probably put it at about 20%. Polls are tightening. State by state he’s going to have a lot harder time than he is at the national, but nonetheless Hillary cannot be complacent.

G20: Did anything significant come out of the meeting?

Sure, the fact that the United States is having just a harder time getting things done. China’s getting bigger, the U.S. hasn’t been able to make good on some of its “pivot”, they have concerns about TPP, the world is fragmenting, globalization continues but Americanization does not (the U.S. has a hard time with that), G20 doesn’t work very well.  

Germany: How worried should Merkel be about AfD?

A little worried. I mean the fact that they actually outscored one of her coalition parties right in her backyard shows that populism in Germany is growing. She knows that she overplayed her hand on refugees and she’s backing away from it. It’s been a hit to her.

Philippines: Will Duterte cause a serious diplomatic crisis?

I don’t think so. He’s actually going to be fine economically, but he’s prone to speaking his mind, and against the U.S. president that is a hard thing to do. So anyway, they’re not meeting. They’ll meet eventually.

Out of time! What can I do? Good questions. I’ll talk to you guys next week.

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Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group, foreign affairs columnist at TIME and Global Research Professor at New York University. You can also follow him on Twitter and Facebook.