The World in 60 Seconds - September 22, 2016

Hey everybody, it is Ian Bremmer. I am here in New York for UN week! Which means don’t leave the house, don’t leave your home! Right? I mean it’s weather, it’s bad traffic, and I’ve got all your questions tee’d up, ready to go! Yes, go! 

UN: Who will be the next Secretary-General?

I have no idea! The Russians, the Americans, want completely different outcomes and it’s too early. But Guterres, of course, is way in front right now, and he’s the odds-on favorite. I wouldn’t put a strong bet there.

Kashmir: Is more violence coming?

Sadly, yes. The Pakistanis, the Indians both moving towards more nationalism in the coming years.

Syria: Is the ceasefire dead?

Well of course it’s dead! But you know what? We can make another one really fast; like smoking, it’s so easy to quit, you do it all the time.

Italy: Will Renzi stay in office through the end of his mandate?

Uh, you know, he’s trying to get away from that promise to step down if he loses the referendum. That’s going to be hard to do, but on balance, I think he’s going to win the referendum. It’s really tight, but I think he’s going to stay.

Snowden: Will Obama pardon him?

He wants to do a lot of things; this is not one of them. The former attorney general thinks he’s a good guy, not Obama’s attorney general right now, and not Obama. I think the answer is no.

Merkel: Will she run again?

One hundred percent, yes she will. And uh, I’m not sure that’s good for Europe. We will see.

Take care. Next week, I’ll be back with more World in 60 Seconds.

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Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group, foreign affairs columnist at TIME and Global Research Professor at New York University. He will be teaching a course on Global Political Risk with other Eurasia Group faculty at NYU Stern from October 24-25. To learn more and register for the course, click here . You can also follow him on Twitter and Facebook.