Not Working!

What we are currently doing to increase airspace and airport efficiency and reduce aviation related delays around the world is simply not working. We need a new path, as neither ATC nor technology alone will ever fix this. But airlines can!

For the almost 40 years I have been working on airline operational, airspace and ATC issues, governments have literally spent 10s of Billions of tax dollars and decades of time and effort, but, sadly, have failed to produce any significant reduction in system delays and airport and airspace congestion and chaos and inefficiency.

Yet, everyone still incorrectly believes that an ATC breakthrough solution is just around the next technological corner. But as many decades and many dollars have proven, with programs like MLS, RNAV, AAS, ISSS, GPS, TCAS, FANS, RNP, ADS-B and C, CPDLC, ATC Modernization, NextGen, Sesar, etc., technology alone is not the answer.

Are ATC modernization and technology upgrades important and have they made aviation and airlines safer - yes and absolutely yes. Have ATC modernization and technology upgrades made our airspace and airports more efficient - absolutely NO.

If we have learned anything, it is that at some point airlines need to get in the game and use the available technology to solve current problems in a way that benefits all of aviation. Unfortunately, we are way past this point.

So, instead of spending Billions more tax dollars by ATC and 100s of millions by airlines continuously reaching for the next “great ATC technology solution”, which is always years, if not decades, into the future, we need a solution today, that uses the technology already in place, costs only a few million dollars, either airlines or ATC can implement and can be in place within months and goes to the heart of the airspace and airport part of the delay problem - the highly variant, highly random aircraft flows.

Business Based Flow Management, or BBFM is that solution, and the only independently validated, system focused, yet aircraft specific, long range (hours prior to landing), queue management solution available today, using predictive analytics and real time, aircraft by aircraft, time based management to rapidly accomplish this. BBFM can be implemented by individual airlines, by ATC or by airports, or, the best solution, as a coordinated solution between all 3.

By taking advantage of all of the proven technology currently available, on the ground and in the air, airlines alone or ATC alone can provide immediate and significant benefits to passengers, taxpayers, airlines, shareholders, employees, ATC, controllers and the environment.

Bottom line, FAA has already proven BBFM works to quickly and efficiently provide airlines and ATC, and, in fact, all of aviation, reduced delays, lower fuel burn and increased on time performance, while also reducing passenger stress and airline and ATC system complexity within months (Airline BBFM White Paper 2018-02-06).

By airlines implementing the independently validated BBFM solution as an overlay to the existing and planned Air Traffic Control safety and separation process, airlines, ATC or airports will provide the necessary leadership to leapfrog what the US DOT Inspector General identified as the "sequencing, spacing and interval management" deficiencies in the skies and on the ground today, using commercially available, off-the-shelf technology, which requires no new aircraft or ATC equipment, and only limited investment.

Finally, BBFM is a disruptive solution that has ATC, airlines, airline pilots and controllers working to the same, aircraft by aircraft, time based goal that provides immediate benefits. Additionally, BBFM easily crosses FIR and ATC sector boundaries to benefit of all, a huge problem with current and proposed ATC solutions. In fact, the only barrier to implementation is inertia, as BBFM can be implemented by a single airline, a single airport or ATC at the first large airport within months, and country wide within 3 years, or less, providing benefits to all users, with zero downside risk. We must stop looking at what is, and focus on what can be. BBFM is what can quickly be, a true win-win solution that will move aviation into the future.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 

Additional articles outlining why the Operational Excellence solution (85% A0, <3% day to day A0 Standard Deviation, 8 to 10 minute scheduled block and gate time reduction), driven by BBFM, is the path forward to make airlines dramatically better and more profitable. All it takes is one airline and/or ANSP to lead the way.

• NAS Congestion - Who’s to Blame? (Journal of Air Traffic Control, Winter 2017)
• Not Working! (ATCA Tech Symposium, Atlantic City, 2018-05-16)
• BBFM Operational Benefits Review (2018 review of validated BBMF operations)
• Air Traffic Control Is Not The Real Cause Of Airline Delays (Forbes.com, 2017-03-23)
• Solving the Right Airline Problem (ATHGrp.com, 2017-10-14)
• ATC Can't Solve Airline Delays (LinkedIn, 2017-11-19)
• ATC Privatization - Good or Bad? (LinkedIn, 2017-09-10)
• Parked Planes Cost Airlines Billions (Forbes.com, 2017-08-15)
• BBFM and RTA Path to NextGen and Sesar (ATHGrp.com, 2017-07)
• Airlines Need to Stop Taking Customers for Granted (Fortune.com, 2017-05-11)
• Airlines should stop blaming others and fix their problems (Boston Globe, 2017-06-22)
• Attila Arrives (Aviation Week, 2013-01)

R. Michael Baiada, ATH Group, Inc., Tel - (303) 674-0229, PO Box 794, Evergreen, CO 80437, [email protected], www.athgrp.com