Will this work? The 51/49 rule

I love this picture of Ginger Rogers playing Fay Fortune in "The Gold Diggers 1933." She's singing "We're in the money" and as Busby Berkeley directed the number it has all the requisit frou frou.

So my 2-minute idea is that we should all make this song our alert tone in life. Let me explain why.

When you know me you'll quickly find out how obsessed I am with #trading and #betting maths. This song is amusing to options traders because in options trading, options go in and out of the money.

How you make money in options trading is simple. Define your expectation in advance about how much the option will go in or out of the money - and size your bet accordingly. You might set an overarching rule: I need to win 51% or more of the time, my advantage over the market needs to be greater than 5%, and I cannot bet more than 5% of my bank on each bet. Simple!*

In you life you'll make financial decisions, investment decisions, #innovation decisions. Each of those decisions comes with variations, soo how will you know with which one if you're going to win? Ask yourself - does this have a 51% chance or greater of succeeding? What is the minimum I can risk that if I lose it on this decision, it won't matter? How much edge do I have? If answering these questions gives you positive expectation, then you should end up "in the money."

Try this 2-minute tool out and let me know how it goes.

Need for some advisory or a workshop? DM me above.

*It is that simple, and then there is the complexity of calculating what the edge is, which is where you might find me knee deep in bad Python.