Work: 15 Years From Today

Do the following in your mind right now:

1. Think of occupations or jobs that you would consider suitable for or as generally done by someone who is a non-graduate, meaning, someone who has not been awarded a decent accredited University degree.
2. Leave out professions that pay exceptionally well for talent or skill, that do not require academic qualifications such as sports or screen acting and such.
3. Leave out critical professions you know that society cannot function without such as those in Law Enforcement, Emergency Services and Defence

Now, in the those occupations or jobs fitting the above you just thought about, very few people, compared to the number of people in them today, will be employed in them 15 years from 2016, for a simple reason; they will have been automated or robotised out of existence. I am not saying, nobody will be in those jobs. Try imagining however, the numbers of people in any one of those types of jobs today. 70% to 80% of places making up that number, in at least the first world, will most probably disappear 15 years from now. 

Illustration:

1. 5 years ago, a fully electric road worthy car was considered decades away. As of 2016, look at the number of orders Tesla has received.
2. 5 years ago, AI chatbots were considered stuff of fiction. In 2016, many companies are already using them for online customer support, and most users don't even know it.
3. 5 years ago, even though autonomous vehicles were already being piloted in limited or confined facilities, most people on earth thought they were decades away. How wrong has the world in general been about that timeline as of 2016?
4. In 2015, the world's first robot fronted hotel opened in Japan, with major hoteliers around the world piloting robot butlers relying on IoT technology in their hotels.
5. Restaurants around the world have been piloting drones for delivery of orders to tables, replacing human waiters, since 2014
6. You can self-check-in at hotels and airports, thanks to automated processes
7. McDonald's has self-service kiosks now, reducing the need for human counter staff

The above illustrations paint a picture of the rapid pace of technology evolution and acceleration at present. I can go on listing to a point that people will stop reading and give up, and the true intended message herein will never be sent across.

The intention here, is highlight, that mass-automation and advanced robotisation is near. By 2031, we will be experiencing the full effects of it, because it will by then, be a reality. Or perhaps, even sooner. 

Then there is another reality; the question of what work will most people, who do not have at least university education, are going to do? And that is yet an easy question to answer reatively, because the next 15 years offer the world with a window period to transform the education system, so that most people are better qualified, and prepared, for the work needs, of the future. The relatively more difficult challenge, is something else, to appreciate which you need to do the following in your mind:

1. Think of tasks or work that graduates in your office or organisation do, which are repetitive, replicative, quantitative, sequential, formula based or linear.

Everything you just thought of in the single step above, can be automated, whether by implementation or integration of "Smart Systems" or "Application of AI" or Robotics or something else, that is already known to be scientifically feasible, for engineers to create or support. Now think, how many people do those tasks or work, and how many people with the job titles that do those things, will actually be required to perform those functions in your office or organisation, when all those things you just thought of in that single step above this paragraph will be automated away from the need of human hands, eyes or minds?

The workplace of the future, will see workload shared by humans and technology, much like the workplace of today, only at a different level. Anything with pre-sets, with linear conditions or possibilities of algorithms, will pretty much be handled by technology, because economically, that is what is going to make more sense, by 15 years from now. The non-linear, dynamic and intellectual work, basically that of human thinking that machines or software aren't going to be able to imitate or emulate, will be human responsibilities or tasks. This means, 15 years from now, people will have to be prepared to perform work of that nature, to be relevant in trade and industry.

It is not just advanced robotics and mass-automation that is driving the change towards the world I attempting to describe herein, a decade and a half from now. In fact, the sort of world I attempt to describe herein will likely be reality for many living in first world nations, sooner than that, but that is different matter. What is also driving us towards the transformation of work, and the need to transform ourselves therefore for relevance in the world of work, are other technologies that aren't even directly meant to reduce dependency on human workers within businesses.

The Brain Computer Interface will take away the need for keyboards, keypads, the mouse, touch-pads, touch-screens and pretty much any other input device one needs the hands or fingers to operate. The Brain Computer Interface means you can think of a presentation in your brain, in terms of content, design, layout and whatever else, and it gets done, at a thought. Imagine productivity there in terms of time. You think of a legal document, and it is drafted automatically without typing or formatting and so on. You can produce music by imagining it, without any formal musical training. It's all boundaries off, really. This will really simplify work, for human beings, like we've never experienced it before. It means, lesser people can do with Brain Computer Interface, because of efficiencies and value-adds it offers, as opposed to present input technology, what you need far more people to cope with now.

For the past few decades, to be honest, technology has been defeating its own purpose, by creating more tasks, more processes, more necessities, more problems, more need for solutions and more workload. The next decade, and then beyond, because of what has finally been achieved of late, and where we stand today, in terms of both will and capability, will see technology finally fulfilling its purpose, of making human life easy. However, by truly making human life easy, including at work, we are faced with a new challenge; what work are we going to do? Don't get me wrong, for I have already answered this question herein and in another article hyper-linked to text herein. Technology will not supplant or replace humans in the world of work. We just will have to be doing new and different things.

Throughout history, as mankind has invented, innovated and changed processes or models or systems of work, we have had to adapt to our own products. Some occupations have become redundant, while new ones have been born out of new needs resulting from new inventions, processes or technologies. When trains were invented, we needed railroad workers. When planes were invented, we needed pilots. That is how work, as cheesy as it sounds, works. Work is done to move from the present to the future. When the future arrives, work takes a new shape and form.

The difference in the challenge for change in work ahead, as compared to in the past, is that never has an evolution of labour needs been as transformational or disruptive as we are on the verge of. For the first time in the human labour story, more people are going to have to be prepared for the more intellectual roles and responsibilities, and lesser for, well, the not so intellectual roles and responsibilities. It is a true inversion of the pyramid, that which while we are on the verge of, we are both either completely ignorant of or in complete denial, as a whole human society. That means, we are in serious trouble, and if not yet, then soon, when it comes to matching the labour pool with the needs of tomorrow's commerce.

Here are the implications:

1. Workers will have to predominantly be thinkers, rather than doers (machines or software will play that role).
2. There will be a greater need for "Ideas" persons than "Logic" persons (if it is logical, the computer will likely instantly take care of it autonomously).
3. We have 15 years to turn the majority of human beings who will be of "working age" by 2031 (or perhaps sooner), at least in the first world, into graduates and post-graduates who can think at conceptual, visionary and strategic levels. The third world or developing work may yet still have more time. How much more, is relative.
4. Too many cooks are definitely going to ruin the stew, so you can't have too many thinkers in one business or organisation, and there may not be enough for everyone, if the numbers of those don't change from the present ones, so we are going to have to spur a lot of new enterprises and cultivate an entrepreneurial culture where people are less "job-seeking" and more "opportunity-seeking".
5. Fun times ahead for the Futurist.

Harish Shah is Singapore's first local born Professional Futurist and a Management Strategy Consultant. He runs Stratserv Consultancy. His areas of consulting include Strategic Foresight, Systems Thinking, Scenario Planning and Organisational Future Proofing. To find out more about the Future of Work, Organisations and Commerce, you may contact him for enquiries at [email protected].