Women's careers surged, while meme stocks went crazy. Did our Big Ideas experts see it coming? Well, almost.

Every December, we at LinkedIn News do something that’s mind-expanding, humbling and a little reckless. Our editors consult a wide range of experts in the U.S., Europe and Asia about what lies ahead. Then we showcase what we hope are the best predictions, via a list of 20 or more Big Ideas.????

You can read our latest forecasts here -- but in the spirit of accountability, let’s open the time capsule and see how last year’s predictions fared.

The good news is that we got 67% of our forecasts right this time, as seen in the table below. Deep green signals the predictions that were spot on; light green are directionally right; light tan are hard to judge; caramel orange are the ones where we got the timing wrong, and sunburn red denotes the ones where we didn't even come close.

We were on the money about everything from the resurgence of virtual worlds (hello, Facebook’s metaverse!) to the rise of hybrid work arrangements around the world, letting employees split their time between offices and remote settings.?

In total, our Class of 2021 predictions were the most accurate batch since we started keeping score in 2017. They certainly are a huge step forward from the rueful days when we scored only 32% right.

Even so, we uncorked the forecaster’s equivalent of a few airballs (if you like basketball) or “own goals” (if your tastes run more toward football/soccer). We predicted that heat waves would take on names much like hurricanes -- which is an intriguing idea but hasn’t caught on yet. Ditto for the notion that empty stores would turn into housing.

In our biggest goof, we warned that in 2021 “a double-dip recession is likely.” Nothing of the sort has occurred. All 25 of the world’s biggest economies -- from giants such as the U.S., China and Japan to smaller economies such as Belgium and Sweden --? have been posting economic growth of 2.3% or more this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

There’s some awkward history here. Three years ago, we warned of a global recession in 2019, which didn’t happen. The next time around, we declared that 2020 would be recession-proof -- only to get blindsided by the pandemic-related global downturn. By now, the lesson has sunk in. Someone else can try to forecast global economic growth; we’re stepping aside.

We redeemed ourselves, though, by concentrating on areas where LinkedIn’s own news feed -- packed with lively conversations among members -- provides valuable signals about what’s coming next.?

Our top-of-the-list prediction, for example, came from health editor Beth Kutscher, who wrote that the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines wouldn’t mean the end of anti-pandemic safety measures such as social distancing. Her call was informed by public health experts in the United States and Ireland. They warned us that vaccine rollouts take time and that people’s willingness to be vaccinated can’t be taken for granted.

Finance editor Devin Banerjee scored another direct hit with his call that “millennials will remake investing in their own image.” Voila! -- a few months later, Reddit-inspired day traders rushed into seemingly dull U.S. stocks like Gamestop, sending prices soaring as much as 50-fold.?

No matter that Wall Street’s pros scoffed, or even bet against these young, meme-stock enthusiasts. A stampede took hold this past winter, led by zany speculators with screen names like Roaring Kitty. For them, a fast-trading phone app was better than an old-school brokerage account.?

Two other subtexts helped guide our prediction engine, too. We’ve learned over time that global politics tends to move more slowly than people expect. That informed London editor Siobhan Morrin’s accurate call that “Brexit will be complete -- but negotiations will never end.”

Meanwhile, private sector progress can happen surprisingly fast, especially when it involves people determined to knock down barriers. Even in the face of late 2020’s economic jitters, small business editor Jordyn Dahl predicted, rightly, that “the pandemic will unleash a new wave of entrepreneurs.” That’s come true in a big way in 2021, with a rapid rise in U.S. business formation and venture capital investment.

Similarly, editor Caroline Fairchild predicted that “the pandemic will send more women to the C-suite.” She noted that the huge layoff waves in the early months of the pandemic had been disproportionately tough on women. But LinkedIn data was starting to show a rise in female hiring late in 2020, and that felt like a trend with staying power.

Indeed. This past spring, the number of female CEOs at large U.S. companies reached a record high. Meanwhile, LinkedIn’s latest data on job promotion rates shows that women’s career advancement in 2021 has outpaced men’s.

Proud of our successes, humbled by our misfires, we're ready to try again. Check out our newest edition of Big Ideas, with 29 glimpses into 2022.? Meanwhile, you’re invited to share your own predictions for next year. Add your forecast to the comment section below, or share this article with a personal prediction in your intro. Either way, include the hashtag #BigIdeas2022 for maximum impact.?