A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Are We Too Quick to Trust Syria’s New Leadership?

A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Are We Too Quick to Trust Syria’s New Leadership?

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Introduction: A Rapid Fall

On November 27, as the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect, Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to launch an offensive against Bashar al-Assad's forces. Within just 11 days, the rebels completed their conquest of Syria, capturing Damascus and forcing Assad to flee to Russia.

The rapid collapse of the Syrian regime shocked many, highlighting the deep-seated resentment among the masses who toppled Assad's statues in Damascus. Syria proved to be a hollow state, with a population that did not believe in it and an army unwilling to die for it. Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez, had spent decades trying in vain to legitimize their rule. Instead, they governed through force and fear, leading to the regime's swift downfall.

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A History of Division and Brutality

Syria's internal fractures stem from decades of division. Since 1966, the country has been controlled by the Alawite minority. The Sunni Muslim majority often views the Alawites with distrust, resulting in ethnic, religious, and tribal tensions that prevent a unified national identity.

Middle Eastern expert Mordechai Kedar aptly describes the situation:

"Syria is an artificial state," he explains. "It is deeply fragmented along ethnic lines—Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, and Armenians; religious lines—Muslims, Christians, Druze, and Alawites; and tribal lines—clans and extended families with their own loyalties and agendas. The only common thread was the arbitrary border drawn by France at the end of its mandate. These divisions have prevented the formation of a true Syrian nation."

Historical Context:

1. The Muslim Brotherhood Uprising (1976-1982): Thousands of Sunni rebels fought the regime, culminating in the Hama massacre, where up to 40,000 people were killed.

2. The Arab Spring Uprising (2011): Anti-regime protests erupted, met with deadly force. Many Sunnis fled to Idlib, near Turkey, where they prepared for a future confrontation with the regime.

Over 14 years, Idlib became a rebel stronghold. Their decisive blow came when Hezbollah’s war with Israel left Assad's regime particularly vulnerable.

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Abu Mohammed al-Jolani: A Complex Figure in the New Syria

The rebel offensive was spearheaded by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist organization formerly tied to Al-Qaeda, under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.

Al-Jolani, born Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, has emerged as a key figure in Syria’s new leadership. While he now presents himself as a moderate leader, his past is deeply intertwined with extremist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

? Early Affiliations: Al-Jolani joined Al-Qaeda in 2003, operating under Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. He rose quickly within the organization.

? Role in ISIS: By 2008, under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, he became the head of operations for ISIS in Iraq’s Nineveh Province.

? Establishment of Jabhat al-Nusra: In 2011, during the Syrian Civil War, he founded Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra.

Despite attempts to distance himself from his extremist past, al-Jolani’s history is undeniable. In 2013, the U.S. designated him as a "Global Terrorist" and placed a $10 million bounty on his head.

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A Moderate Facade or Deceptive Strategy?

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader, has recently intensified efforts to present himself and his group as legitimate actors in the new Syrian landscape. His rhetoric and actions suggest a shift toward moderation and reconciliation, with several key developments:

? Calls for Reconciliation: Al-Jolani publicly invited displaced residents of Aleppo and other areas to return to their homes, promising protection under his group's authority.

? Formation of a Civilian Authority: He proposed the dissolution of HTS to facilitate the establishment of a transitional civilian government, ostensibly to ensure broader representation.

? Assurances to Minorities: Al-Jolani pledged to protect religious minorities, including Christians and Shiites, and to preserve cultural heritage and religious sites.

Al-Jolani has reportedly met with western media, various regional stakeholders and international actors in a bid to gain legitimacy for his leadership. One notable example is his engagement with Western officials and think tanks, where he sought to portray himself as a pragmatic leader capable of stabilizing Syria's fractured regions. These meetings underscore a calculated effort to reshape his image from that of a militant commander to a credible political figure.

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Ongoing Atrocities and Extremist Roots

While al-Jolani attempts to present a moderate image, reports from Syria suggest otherwise:

? Persecution of Assad Loyalists and Alawites: Rebels are conducting street executions and targeting the Alawite minority.

? Desecration of Religious Sites: Armed opposition members were recently filmed desecrating the grave of a revered Alawite sheikh in northern Aleppo, killing five unarmed guards and desecrating their bodies.

? Extremist Appointments: Al-Jolani has appointed several former jihadists to key positions in the new Syrian government, including foreign fighters from Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Albania, and the Uyghur community.

The general intelligence chief, Anas Khattab, a close associate of al-Jolani, exemplifies the continuity of extremist influence.

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The Danger of Taqiyya: Concealing True Intentions

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s apparent transformation into a moderate leader may be part of a calculated strategy rather than a genuine ideological shift. The concept of taqiyya—the strategic concealment of true intentions for tactical advantage—raises significant doubts about the sincerity of his claims.

Unlike ISIS, which operated without defined borders or international legitimacy, Syria’s new leadership under al-Jolani appears to be pursuing a more calculated and pragmatic approach:

1. Securing Borders: Establishing clear territorial boundaries to consolidate power and reduce internal conflicts.

2. International Legitimacy: Engaging with global powers to gain recognition, funding, and diplomatic support.

3. Strategic Messaging: Using moderate rhetoric and promises of reconciliation to appeal to Western audiences and international stakeholders.

This approach could lead to the emergence of a state-backed extremist regime with strategic access to the Mediterranean Sea. Such a development poses new and significant risks to neighboring countries and the broader region.

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A Threat in the Making?

History shows that extremism does not disappear; it evolves. The difference between ISIS and Syria’s new regime lies in legitimacy. Where ISIS declared a caliphate without recognition, al-Jolani's leadership is gaining acceptance from international actors.

The risk lies in the potential establishment of a highly organized and state-backed extremist regime—a threat to both Arab and Western nations due to the spillover of jihadists.

A Strategic Threat to the Mediterranean

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), under al-Jolani’s leadership, now controls parts of Syria’s coastline. This control creates a dangerous foothold with far-reaching implications:

? Infiltration Risks: Proximity to Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Turkey, and other Mediterranean nations heightens the threat of covert militant activities and unauthorized border crossings.

? Migration Gateway: The Syrian coastline could become a hub for launching mass migration routes into Europe, intensifying existing political and social challenges.

? Expanded Regional Influence: Access to maritime routes provides HTS with a strategic advantage for moving resources, personnel, and potentially spreading their ideology further into Europe and neighboring regions.

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Conclusion: Are We Too Na?ve?

Why are some countries so na?ve? Why do we repeatedly fail to understand the other side, or even to identify who the adversary truly is?

The root of this issue lies deeply embedded in our moral framework and cultural values. Our ethics and worldview, shaped by centuries of societal development, lead us to evaluate others through our own lens. We constantly assess human behavior based on our standards and norms.

This approach creates a recurring blind spot. By projecting our perspectives onto others, we fail to grasp the motivations, strategies, and intentions of those who operate under entirely different paradigms. Without stepping outside our cultural comfort zones, we remain vulnerable to misjudging not just the actions but the very essence of the adversary.

The global community must critically assess Syria’s new leadership. Are we witnessing genuine reform, or are we being deceived by a carefully orchestrated rebranding?

The moderate image projected by al-Jolani could be a tactical maneuver to rebuild and consolidate power. If we fail to recognize this, we risk enabling a new form of extremism with greater resources and legitimacy.

Understanding the adversary requires a willingness to question assumptions, challenge narratives, and look beyond appearances to uncover the true nature of emerging powers. Without this vigilance, we risk enabling threats that could reshape the global landscape in profoundly destabilizing ways._

What do you think about Syria's new leadership? Share your insights and perspectives.

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