Wolf Knocking!

It has been more than a decade since I shed my uniform! Though the zeal to serve my nation is still alive, I left the forces after an extremely satisfying, fruitful albeit 'unsuccessful' career of two decades! After some forays in the corporate, I now focus on more universal & human issues which transcend the confines of nations & boundaries! However, the latest development in our western proximity has woken up the military thinker in me, as I explore the ramifications of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan and the road ahead for the civilised world! Many civilizations and nations have perished to the human greed & lust for money and power played out through the instruments of violence and subjugation. Adding politics & religion to this already deadly cocktail has seen suffering and anarchy of unbound proportions.

Afghanistan, a vibrant and prosperous country under the rule of Md Zahir Shah till 1973 , the country continues to spiral into the abyss of anarchy by a series politico-religious conspiracies initially by the communists and later by the radical Islamists. I first got interested in the geopolitics of the Af-Pak region as a young cadet when I chanced upon 'The Bear Trap' written by Brigadier Mohd Yousef, the Deputy Director General of the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). The book lucidly explains how the CIA & ISI orchestrated the 'Mujahdeen' fighters from different tribes & regions to overthrow a settled Soviet occupier! In his book he describes very clearly how difficult it was to bring the different chieftains to agreement as the only 'unifying' ground was Islam!

Without getting into too many historical details, which can be easily gathered through the 'Google Baba', I want to emphasize that Taliban is a known entity cradled & tracked by the CIA for over 45 years. Yet, we can see that US today stands both figuratively & literally defeated. The rise Taliban, the Al Quada, ISIS, Jaish, etc is not a chance development, it is simply a manifestation of the invisible 'Caliphate' with Jihadi ideology. To take Taliban on the face value that they will not interfere in the issues of neighboring countries like India and China is probably the dumbest assumption. Further, while we are at least mindful of the imminent and perceived threat, I pity China, which ready to play the bed-fellow with the Taliban for the greed of striking it rich with minerals and a possible transit corridor for the CPEC. If US could not understand the ISI-Mujahdeen complexity despite a 45 years association, one can clearly fathom, which way China is heading!

As far as Pakistan is concerned, now that their objectives have been fulfilled across the Durand Line, ISI and its allies from the veiled Caliphate will now focus eastwards on Dar-al-Harb across the LoC into Kashmir and beyond. In the recent past, there have been many sleeper cells of the Jihadi groups which have been busted within India and tacit support to strife & agitations by inimical exterior forces poses a very grim scenario. India has no choice but to strengthen its security apparatus and coordination to a much higher level of sophistication and at the same time increase its depth to gather human intelligence not only within but also from across the region of concern. The ground situation of the siege by Taliban re-ignites the debate between Boots-on-Ground versus military sophistication. Indian leadership needs to evolve the right balance and flexibility & dexterity in both tactical as well as strategic positioning. Sadly what is evident from the Taliban conquest is that ideology & purpose are more important than training & discipline.

India has had a long history of classical disconnect between the bureaucracy and military leadership. This has manifested in inconsistent positioning in foreign policy. There are very many complex underpinnings that govern the foreign policy of the day and it is beyond my qualification to speak on the subject, but I observe that somehow we have always been on the other side of dominant geo-political player of the day! While the US and its capitalists allies were flourishing, we were with the USSR and now that the China - Iran - Russia axis is slowly emerging as the dominant force we are forming Quad with geographically & ideologically dispersed partners! An old adage is relevant, there are no permanent friends or foes, there are only permanent interests! My personal opinion is that we need a better synergy in evolving our Foreign-Military Strategy and leverage our long standing ties with Russia and Iran to foster more cordial and stable relations with China. This is the best thing for the long term peace & stability of the region! Jai Hind!