wknd notes: combining loosely related things, triangulating, blending ideas, philosophies, techniques

Dusted off an anecdote from 2016 about the importance of combining loosely related things, triangulating, blending ideas, philosophies, techniques. I wrote it when Jackson, my oldest son, was playing football and lacrosse as a high school freshman. And now it’s Charlie’s turn, my youngest, who just finished a Navy lacrosse camp and is on to freshman football pre-season. I take July/Aug off from writing, to do more reading, recharge. Hoping the same for you. Back again in September. All the very best, E?

Week-in-Review: Mon: Trump’s odds of winning election surge as he survives assassination attempt over the weekend, Trump announces JD Vance as VP running mate during RNC, Judge throws out Trump’s confidential document case based on Special Counsel being unconstitutional, Powell says last 3 inflation readings add to confidence that it’s headed for 2% target, China 2Q GDP 4.7% (5.1%e) / IP 5.3% (5.0%e) / Ret sales 2.0% (3.4%e), US Empire mfg -6.6 (-7.6e), Indonesia Impts 7.58% (7.20%e) / Expts 1.17% (4.81%e), EU IP -2.9% (-3.6%e), S&P +0.3%; Tue: US retail sales (control group) +0.9% MoM (0.2%e), reports that the US learned of a plot by Iran to assassinate Trump (not linked to Saturday’s attempt), US Senator Menendez (NJ) found guilty - reportedly prepared to step down, Vance ramps up rhetoric on China being the biggest threat to the US, Fed’s Kugler says if data continues then cutting later this year is appropriate, Germany ZEW exp 41.8 (41e), Canada CPI 2.7% (2.8%e) / Core (median) 2.6% (2.7%e), Canada Housing starts 241.7k (254.1k e), US NHAB housing mkt index 42 (43e), S&P +0.6%; Wed: Biden tests positive for Covid, reports that US preparing the most severe trade restrictions on China’s chip access, Trump says he’ll allow Powell to serve out his term / will focus on ccy manipulators to support US mfg / questions US’s support of Taiwan, Japan digital transformation minister (Kono) argues the BOJ needs to hike to combat weak yen, Fed’s Williams and Waller both suggest the data is getting closer to prompting cuts, Brazil’s Lula casts doubts on maintaining a fiscal target / Haddad says comments taken out of context, top Dems Schumer and Jefferies have warned Biden about running / NYT reports Biden has grown ‘more receptive’ to stepping aside, N. Zealand CPI 3.3% (3.4%e) / Core 3.5% (3.4%e), UK CPI 2.0% (1.9%e) / Core 5.7% (5.6%e) / RPI 2.9% as exp, EU CPI (final) 2.5% as exp / Core 2.9% as exp, S. Africa Ret sales 0.8% (0.6%e), US Housing starts 1353k (1300k e), US IP 0.6% MoM (0.3%e), S&P -1.4%; Thu: ECB unch as exp / Lagarde says Sept meeting is “wide open”, China’s 3rd Plenum communique offers little surprise, Obama calls on Biden to weigh his campaign’s viability, S. Africa CB keeps rates unch (4-2) as exp, Israel considering transferring control of Gaza’s Rafah border to EU/Palestinians, Indonesia president Prabowo names nephew Fin Min, Australia emp 50.2k (20k exp) / unemp 4.1% as exp, UK Unemp rate 4.4% as exp, Poland PPI -6.1% (-6.2%e), US Initial claims 243k (229k e), US leading index -0.2% (-0.3%e), S&P -0.8%; Fri: global cyber outage impacts airlines and numerous corporations, Trump’s acceptance speech to close RNC went on for over 90mins, Biden says he will resume campaigning next week, ECB’s Muller says important not to pre-commit to September, Japan CPI 2.8% (2.9%e) / Core 2.2% as exp, Germany PPI -1.6% as exp, S&P -0.7%.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -2.0% and VIX +4.06 at +16.52. Nikkei -2.7%, Shanghai +0.4%, Euro Stoxx -2.7%, Bovespa -1.0%, MSCI World -1.3%, and MSCI Emerging -1.6%. USD rose +4.6% vs Chile, +3.1% vs Brazil, +2.4% vs Mexico, +1.7% vs South Africa, +1.6% vs Sweden, +1.5% vs Australia, +0.7% vs Canada, +0.6% vs Sterling, +0.3% vs Indonesia, +0.3% vs China, +0.2% vs Euro, and +0.1% vs India. USD fell -11.7% vs Bitcoin, -9.8% vs Ethereum, -0.2% vs Yen, flat vs Turkey, and flat vs Russia. Gold -0.9%, Silver -6.0%, Oil -2.5%, Copper -7.8%, Iron Ore -5.5%, Corn -2.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 1.99%, US +5bps at 2.30%, JP -5bps at 1.50%, and UK +3bps at 3.59%). 2yr Notes +6bps at 4.51% and 10yr Notes +6bps at 4.24%.

2024 Year-to-Date Equity Index Close: Argentina +47.7% priced in US dollars (+68.8% priced in pesos), Venezuela +44.6% priced in US dollars (+47.4% in bolivars), Turkey +33.6% in dollars (+49.3% in lira), Taiwan +19.1% (+27.5%), NASDAQ +18.1% in dollars, Denmark +16.2% (+18.3%), Hungary +16% (+20.3%), S&P 500 +15.4% in dollars, Netherlands +13.4% (+15.3%), MSCI World +13% in dollars, India +12.3% (+12.9%), Greece +11.4% (+13.2%), Italy +10.9% (+12.7%), Malaysia +10.3% (+12.5%), Czech Republic +9.8% (+14.1%), Poland +9.1% (+9.4%), Ireland +9% (+10.8%), Colombia +8.8% (+14.4%), Spain +8% (+9.8%), Russell +7.8% in dollars, Japan +7.1% (+19.7%), Israel +7% (+8.4%), Germany +6.7% (+8.5%), UK +6.7% (+5.5%), Belgium +5.7% (+7.4%), Austria +5.2% (+6.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 +5% (+6.8%), Norway +4.8% (+13.2%), Singapore +4.3% (+6.4%), Canada +4.1% (+8.3%), Russia +3.4% (+0.8%), South Africa +3.3% (+3.5%), Switzerland +3.2% (+9.3%), Australia +2.7% (+5%), HK +2.2% (+2.2%), Saudi Arabia +1.8% (+1.8%), Sweden +0.8% (+7.3%), Philippines -0.2% (+5.3%), New Zealand -0.7% (+4.7%), Chile -1.5% (+5.8%), France -1.7% (-0.1%), China -2.1% (+0.2%), Korea -2.5% (+5.3%), Portugal -3.1% (-1.5%), UAE -3.5% (-3.5%), Finland -4.7% (-3.1%), Indonesia -4.8% (+0.3%), Mexico -12.2% (-6.5%), Thailand -12.5% (-7%), Brazil -17.2% (-4.9%).

Anecdote (Oct 2016): “Can’t wait for football season to end,” said Jackson, my oldest. Seemed odd, so I waited, quiet. “Literally can’t wait for lacrosse season.” He’s fourteen, Greenwich High. Now, my freshman year in high school was an utter disaster. I’d moved from NYC to the suburbs, having only ever played dodgeball. So I cycled through every conceivable sport, in search of one I sucked at less than all others. Which resulted in an even tie: football and lacrosse. I then spent years rising slowly off the bench, removing splinters. But sucking has its advantages. Like teaching you how to play smart. You see, I discovered early that when you suck at one thing, you’re stuck. But if you suck at two things, well, you can bring elements from one sport to the other in a way that allows you to suck less. And once you discover that magic formula, you look for ways to improve by combining loosely related things, triangulating, blending ideas, philosophies, techniques. On the field and off. Which is why diverse countries, companies, investment firms too, are more creative, productive, successful, powerful. That’s why as our world grows smaller, combining humanity’s infinite talents, so many wonderful innovations appear. Miraculously. “Can’t wait to start wrecking people on the lacrosse field,” Jackson explained. It took a year, and he caught up to east coast lacrosse. Wanted to play year-round. But I urged him to pursue both sports, eager to have him claw his way onto the football field and blend the two. “Now that I’ve learned how to hit Dad, I’m going to win every ground ball, I’m going to be seriously frightening.” So I asked him why he had needed to play football to learn to hit hard in lacrosse? “No idea,” he answered, smiling. “All that matters is now I know.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

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Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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