Lately I have been writing from Paris. But this week I am in NYC for a range of conversations with financial institutions about how geopolitical shifts are increasingly moving markets.
If any readers are also in town and would like to meet, please don’t hesitate to reach out. I would be happy to detail what we are doing at Geopolitical Strategy – the advisory firm behind this newsletter.
I only just made it to NYC. Along with hundreds of thousands of people around the world a faulty software update nearly kyboshed, but ultimately only delayed, my travels.
Not a sob story – many, especially hospital patients, fared much worse – but a reminder of just how vulnerable we are to interconnected shocks. With just a few lines of code, travel healthcare and essential services can grind to a halt.?
Friday’s incident was an error but also an example of what the impacts of deliberate cyber warfare could look like. And cyber warfare, of course, is driven by geopolitics – a topic we explored in some detail in this backgrounder on the Geopolitics of Cybersecurity.
The talk of the town quickly shifted over the weekend from cybersecurity to domestic politics, of course, with President Biden’s announcing that he would withdraw from the presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris, which other senior Democrats, though not Barack Obama, lined up to support.
Obama’s silence is likely less about a rumoured run by his wife than a desire to not openly interfere with party processes. Either way, the Democrats can ill-afford further leadership uncertainty and it’s possible Harris may in fact sworn in prior to the election to head off the obvious problem with Biden’s withdrawal: if he can’t run then he can’t serve. This was why, until key senators withdrew support, it was widely thought he would remain to the end.”
If Biden resigns, Harris’s chances in November will improve. Beyond a honeymoon polling bounce, she would be able to campaign as America’s first female president. Biden is otherwise Donald Trump’s best asset. And a long lame duck period sends a message that nobody’s in charge. Still, when Lyndon Johnson withdrew in 1968, his improved approval rating, and the “October surprise” of a Vietnam ceasefire, wasn’t enough to stop Richard Nixon.”
But that, of course, was not the only major geopolitical development over the past week.
- Israel, Yemen. Israel intercepted missiles Sunday after striking targets in Yemen for the first time. Yemen’s Houthi militia had earlier sent a drone into central Tel Aviv, killing one. Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Washington for the first time since 2022. Our analysis here.
- Israel, Palestine. An Israeli strike aimed at October 7 mastermind Mohammed Deif killed at least 90 Saturday. Hamas said Deif survived, and it still wanted ceasefire talks to continue. Benjamin Netanyahu said "cracks" were appearing in the militant group. Our analysis here.?
- China, Philippines. Beijing and Manila "reached an understanding" Sunday on resupply missions in the South China Sea. Last week, they agreed to establish a presidential hotline. Ferdinand Marcos Jr prepared to give his annual State of the Nation address. Our analysis here.
- China. A major plenary meeting of the Chinese Communist Party began Monday. GDP figures showed growth falling to 4.7% in the June quarter, from 5.1% in the March quarter and below expectations. New home prices extended falls in June. Our analysis here.?
- Bangladesh. Dhaka was quiet Monday morning after the Supreme Court reversed government job quotas for families of independence fighters. Days of anti-quota unrest saw 139 deaths, media blackouts and curfews across the country. Our analysis here.??
- The Pacific. The US opened an embassy in Vanuatu Thursday, its latest Pacific presence after Solomon Islands and Tonga. Xi Jinping hosted Vanuatu's prime minister last week, after building a new presidential palace for the ex-French colony. Our analysis here.?
- South Korea, US. An ex-National Security Council and CIA official was indicted Tuesday for sharing non-public information with South Korean intelligence. Lawyers for Sue Mi Terry, who now works at the Council on Foreign Relations, denied the charges. Our analysis here.?
- North Korea, China. China was not involved in the construction of a bridge over the Tuman River by Russia and North Korea, a Kremlin official said. No senior North Korean officials attended a Chinese embassy banquet to mark 63 years of treaty relations. Our analysis here.?
- Pakistan.?Islamabad filed a treason case against Imran Khan and announced plans to ban his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, days after a court overturned a bigamy charge against the ex-prime minister. Two militant attacks killed at least 28 Tuesday. Our analysis here.?
- Vietnam. President To Lam took over the duties of Communist Party Secretary-General Nguyen Phu Trong Thursday, due to Trong undergoing medical treatment. The Party did not specify Trong's condition but awarded him Vietnam's highest medal. Our analysis here.?
- Nepal. Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, head of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), was due to be sworn in Monday after the government of Pushpa Kamal Dahal collapsed Friday. Oli's party will govern with the Nepali Congress. Our analysis here.?
- India. The son of India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, got married in a $1 billion four-day spectacle attended by Narendra Modi, Boris Johnson, Tony Blair, and Hollywood b-listers. Thirty Indian migrants were released from slavery in Italy. Our analysis here.?
- European Union. Addressing the European Parliament, re-elected Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for a "true European defence union" and criticised Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Russia said her speech gave a "military colouring" to the EU. Our analysis here.?
- France. A group of 20 disparate groups agitating for independence from France agreed to form a united "liberation front" Thursday at a conference in Baku. Azerbaijan's president arrived in Britain for a gathering including Emmanuel Macron. Our analysis here.?
- France. A former climate negotiator was proposed as prime minister by the Socialists, Greens and Communists Tuesday. The Communists said the left’s coalition could be "shipwrecked" if its largest member, Unsubmissive France, did not agree. Our analysis here.?
- Ukraine, Russia. The Kremlin responded cautiously Tuesday after Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia should attend a second peace summit in November. Donald Trump will push for an “immediate” peace, Viktor Orban said in a letter to EU leaders. Our analysis here.?
- Ukraine, Russia. Germany said it would not be intimidated by Russia after media said the CEO of arms maker Rheinmetall was subject to an assassination plot. Ukraine's intelligence chief said Saturday there had several attempts to kill Vladimir Putin. Our analysis here.?
- United States. JD Vance, Ohio senator and author of bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, was named Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee Monday. A judge dismissed Trump’s classified document case on grounds of the prosecution’s appointment. Our analysis here.?
- United States. Donald Trump was hospitalised after being pierced in the ear by a bullet at a rally Saturday. The gunman was killed on the scene. Potential running mate pick, JD Vance, blamed Joe Biden’s political rhetoric for the attack. Biden urged unity. Our analysis here.?
- Rwanda, DRC. Provisional results Tuesday showed Rwandan president Paul Kagame winning 99% of the vote, extending three decades in power. The DRC said a UN peacekeeping withdrawal in the east might need to be delayed due to ongoing fighting. Our analysis here.?
