Wishful thinking aside, monetary policy is still the only game in town - Anna Stupnytska, Global Economist at Fidelity Multi Asset
Adam Mackie
Private Markets Specialist / Global Alternative Investments / Capital Raising
The world’s most powerful central bankers delivered little new insight into the near-term monetary policy outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This was not a big surprise; neither the Fed nor the ECB (and definitely not the BOJ!) currently face any urgency to change course within the carefully laid out policy framework. Instead, they chose to send a different message emphasising the importance of financial regulation, fiscal policies and trade openness in boosting growth on a sustainable basis and making the global economy more dynamic. This was a clearly coordinated effort not just to reflect on the lessons learnt since the financial crisis on its tenth anniversary, but - more importantly - to rebuff the recent shift towards populist policies across the world, especially in the US and UK.
Even though this was not exciting for markets (though euro crosses benefitted from Draghi not commenting on recent euro strength), the importance of the underlying message could not be overestimated. Despite the baby steps towards policy normalisation, central banks are out of ammunition and are not prepared to face another crisis, meaning other policies - regulatory, fiscal and structural - should be working alongside monetary policy to help increase the resilience of economies and avoid similar episodes in the future.
While encouraging, I doubt the message has reached the intended recipients. As regulation is being dismantled and few sustainable growth-boosting policies are in the pipeline, asset bubbles are slowly brewing, as neither central banks nor politicians are willing to address the post-crisis excesses directly. Good news for populist politicians: central bankers are now probably even more disliked by their electorates. Bad news for central bankers: other policies are not coming to rescue any time soon. Monetary policy is still the only game in town, facing the ever-tougher trade-off between growth and financial stability which will need to be addressed soon with limited ammunition.