Wishes for the new year of human spaceflight

Some personal thoughts as I wrap up work for the year and look with promise and hope for what may come in the new year.

1 That the Agency finally does an honest engineering assessment of what it will take to achieve SPD-1 unconstrained by the SLS/Orion/Gateway box. It has been a year since the President signed Space Policy One yet the plan for getting to the Moon is not exactly potted.

• Is a $2B yearly ops cost for a Rocket & spacecraft that can only fly once maybe twice a year and can't get to low lunar orbit the right pieces to use as the backbone for lunar surface operations?
• Is a station that is only crewed for 30-90 days a year and requires you to bring all your water, oxygen and food with you for each mission extensible for future lunar surface operations and is it providing any tangible lessons learned beyond how a crew is impacted by radiation environment?
• By breaking it down into GND to LEO, LEO to LLO, LLO to surface and back again what makes sense for each segment to be robust, affordable, reusable and sustainable and is it from internal, commercial or international partners?

2 That commercial spaceflight is successful in returning capabilities to the US to get to the ISS in regular and affordable flights.

3 That we start being more transparent with the budget and schedule for projects and no longer depend on the sunk cost fallacy keeping these albatrosses afloat when they spiral out of control. We can't pitch a new project to the public and Congress as going to take X years and Y Billions when internally we forecast it will realistically be X+5 years and Y+$3B but we keep that to ourselves for fear of not getting approved. In the long run we lose credibility on our ability to deliver and cannibalize other areas to cover the budget overruns when the program inevitably balloons to X+12 years and Y+$10B.

Return to the Moon - 1991; collection of McCall Studios

4 That space Tourism takes off allowing more folks to experience the Overview Effect. The more people that are able to have their worldly perspective shifted by seeing our fragile Oasis from above the Karman Line the greater potential that the petty politics and invisible borders dissolve away on our Pale Blue Dot.

5 That the stove pipes and Not Invented Here Mentality continue to be banished from our lexicon and modus operandi because we need to Dare to embrace innovation and looking for new ways of doing things. We need to realize the players in human spaceflight of the next 60 years aren't limited to the governments and contractors of the past. We should Unite with our international partners new and old as well as the burgeoning commercial sector to Explore not just for flags and footprints but for permanent up the gravity well outposts out in the Expanse.

6 That we do a better job explaining the benefits and reasons that space exploration is worth it to the general public so that it isn't an either or discussion where space dollars are competing with societal issues at home. We need more programs like Space Explorers that provide relatable and engaging content to help folks understand how off the Earth is really a benefit for the Earth from technology spinoffs, better understanding our planet, and our place in the universe.

Another Busy Day on Mars - 1991; collection of McCall Studios

7 That those waiting for a swing of the pendulum from Moon back to Mars with the next presidential flip realize that the unknown unknowns and lessons to be learned on the lunar surface are many and that Mars is a mirage always 20 years over the horizon with our current systems Instead of a stalling tactic they should embrace a near term achievable goal like returning to the surface of the Moon which will fire up the workforce, provide much needed focus and reignite the engine of innovation instead of a rudderless environment wasting a generation of a dedicated workers with make work and pet projects.

8 That when that inevitable first crewed disaster hits a commercial space flight mission whether it is an ISS run, or space tourism flight that neither the government nor stockholders grind theses companies to a halt. We can't let kneejerk over reactions cripple a company with risk aversion and analysis by paralysis. Spaceflight continues to be hard as evidenced by the recent soyuz launch abort of a proven workhorse and we would be hypocritical if we let over regulations kill these companies in response to a disaster whether it was due to hubris, failure of imagination or myopic thinking like what cost this agency 17 in the pursuit of exploration. The Noble endeavor of space exploration is no longer the domain strictly of government agencies and we should avoid trying to stifle their innovation when they stumble along the way because in the end while risky, the pursuit of space is worth it.

9 That managers become leaders and that the visionless find strategy and spinal fortitude to move past just caring about lights staying on and troops fed to more meaningful issues like is the architecture integrated, are we taking a hands on holistic look at the plan instead of laughing it off as road runner physics and not our problem. The dedicated employees stand at the ready if you are willing to lead, if not then maybe retirement is your path forward and let others be the standard bearers carrying the flag of exploration across the plains of bureaucracy.

10 That all the steely eyed men and women of the space business realize that while this is a job of long hours, cancelled vacations, sometimes death by a thousand papercuts and time away from family the achievements you continue to make improve life for all humanity and help chart a destiny for the specie that may endure until the sun grows cold. Right now there is just one Castle in the sky, flying overhead every ninety minutes showing all of us the greater potential we have within us if we work together. Someday soon that lone beacon of light will become hundreds of points of light blazing in the night sky not of distant stars but of humanities many footholds across the solar system. Then terms like Loonies, Dusters, and Belters won't just be from science fiction but what we call our brothers and sisters out there amongst the heavens.

Exploring The Asteroids - 1986; collection of McCall Studios