The Wisdom of Crowds
Lois Sonstegard, Ph.D., ACC
Revenue Growth Consultant | Build Collaboration Systems| Scale Start-ups & Entrepreneurs | Grow Leaders.
In 1906, Sir Francis Galton, the brilliant English anthropologist, explorer and polymath, found himself at a farmers' fair in the charming town of Plymouth. The fair was abuzz with excitement over a weight guessing contest, which piqued Galton's curiosity.
The challenge was to guess the weight of an ox after it had been butchered and dressed. A grand prize awaited the person with the closest guess. Around 800 participants, including experts, veterinarians, and simple townsfolk, penned their estimates on tickets, hoping to claim victory.
Once the contest concluded, Galton collected all the tickets and analyzed the data in his typical meticulous manner. To his astonishment, he found that the average of the guesses of the townspeople was incredibly close to the actual weight of the butchered ox, deviating by a mere 1 pound (the ox that weighed 1,198 pounds).
What astounded Galton even more was that this collective guess surpassed not only the winning entry but also the educated estimates of so-called “cattle experts” at the fair. The power of collaborative thought had produced an extraordinary result!
Galton's experiment with the weight guessing contest showed the concept of the "wisdom of crowds." He revealed that when individuals' opinions are aggregated, the collective average tends to be accurate and even superior to the judgments of the experts.
Even Today, The Crowd Is Right
Sir Francis Galton's ox experiment is akin to the popular game show "So You Want to be a Millionaire." In this show, contestants face challenging questions. They have the option to ask the audience to vote on which answer is correct.
Just as Galton discovered the wisdom of crowds, the show recognizes the power of collaborative intelligence. By asking the audience, contestants tap into the diverse knowledge of the masses, increasing their chances of arriving at the right answer.
The audience, like the villagers in Galton's experiment, represents a broad spectrum of expertise and perspectives. Individually, their answers may vary, but collectively, their combined wisdom often leads to accurate results (97% of the time!).
Thus, the "Ask the Audience" lifeline on "So You Want to be a Millionaire" shows the enduring lesson from Galton's experiment: the strength of collaborative ecosystems outweighs the fallibility of individuals. It serves as a reminder that sometimes, in the quest for knowledge, it is wise to trust the power of the crowd.
Galton’ discovery, reinforced in modern settings by the experience of television show contestants, teaches us an invaluable lesson: harnessing the collective intelligence and diverse perspectives of a group can lead to extraordinary outcomes. It reminds us to embrace collaboration, while respecting differing viewpoints. Furthermore, it recognizes that sometimes, the collective wisdom of many can surpass the knowledge of a few.
Collaboration Is Here to Stay
Lois Sonstegard is the Chief Executive Officer of Build2morrow in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN. She is a management consultant, executive coach and advisor to C-suite level executives. Lois is a strong proponent of collaboration in the business world. She sees it as a positive and necessary model of modern business.?
In fact, she acts as a neutral advisor to companies in collaboration ecosystems. She helps members of the ecosystem to collaborate, working together for the collective good of the group.?
If you would like to know more about collaboration ecosystems, call Lois at 952 200 6539 or visit her website here .?
Universal Workplace Design Innovator Creating a More Inclusive and Effective World of Work
1 年I love this article. It reminds me of your genius presentation at HRDS. I have proven this theory correct in my work as well, so it even works when trying to find innovation. Diversity in collaboration is vital to attain effective results.
Resilience & Well-being Advisor, Fraud Prevention expert. I help companies create workplaces where people want to stay, instead of wanting to leave. I help women transform their inner critic.
1 年Great article, Lois! And great point….
Lean Six Sigma Black Belt in Healthcare, Lean Six Sigma Green Belt & PM Certified Pharmaceutical, Medical Device & Clinical Research Professional
1 年The collective wisdom referenced in the anecdote has to be balanced with and weighed against "Group Think." Going along to get along is not always a wise choice. I remember reading an article about an oriental airline where the the senior pilot had misjudged vital data. None of the other flight crew dared question him because "Saving Face" was such an important part of the culture. Since no one questioned or challenged him, the crew and all the passengers ALL perished. Consider the 6 million Jews and 5 million Christians who perished in the Nazi Holocaust. The crowd was definitely NOT right in that situation. There are times when collaboration is a valuable tool; there are also times when it is not. Wisdom is knowing when to speak and when not to speak. Wisdom is also knowing when to trust the counsel of others and when to trust your own instincts.