Wireless Broadband Penetration to Reach 26% by 2030

Bulge bracket research indicates that in a less favorable outlook for fiber providers as wireless broadband penetration could increase to 26% by FY30, as consumers increasingly value adequate speeds at more affordable prices.

The expansion of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is transforming the broadband market and intensifying competition. Telecom giants like T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T are leaning heavily into FWA, which is now outpacing traditional cable and fiber in net broadband additions. In Q2 ‘24 920,000 FWA subscribers were added surpassing all high-speed data adds for the same period. By 2028, T-Mobile may target 10-12 million FWA subscribers, while Verizon is expected to raise its goal to 8-10 million, 100% greater their estimate of 1 year ago.

FWA’s rapid growth is notable even in urban areas, where it holds around 6% market share, further proving its ability to compete beyond rural deployments where FWA has already captured 7% market share. The implications are profound—FWA is no longer just a supplemental option; it’s emerging as a primary broadband solution. As fiber providers also push their growth strategies, the balance of FWA and fiber convergence is critical. T-Mobile’s move into fixed + wireless convergence through recent fiber deals exemplifies this trend.

This is a pivotal moment for telecom leaders. The challenge will be to balance robust FWA expansion with strategic fiber deployments, positioning for long-term success in an evolving broadband landscape.

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