Winter Forecast
FINAL WINTER FORECAST 2023-2024
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Issued November 22nd 2023 for North Central Maryland
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Influencing Factors: Some Nature, Some Science
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Folklore: Fuzzy Caterpillars: (Brown/Black): My Frederick spotter John Enoch saw fuzzy Caterpillars recently and those little creature were predominately Brown in coloration. This is different from last year’s observation, and suggests slightly above normal fall/ winter temps. My buddy Chris sent me a recent pic from Frederick and that caterpillar was almost hairless!
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Squirrel Activity: I have observed “normal” activity recently, our furry friends are currently stockpiling nuts. Seems like the squirrels are getting a little nervous as they should be by 12/1.
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El Nino/ La Nina: ?Moderate El Nino conditions continue to develop and I expect a Moderate El Nino to establish itself throughout our Fall/Winter season. Typically this projects a stronger Southern Jet stream will be involved which can produce wetter conditions. I expect Normal to Slightly above Precipitation.
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Arctic Oscillation/AO: It is difficult to forecast the AO for an entire Winter Cycle as it generally fluctuates over shorter periods of time. Basically when this signal is weaker that allows true cross polar air to sink southward. As we approach “meteorological winter” (12/1/23-3/1/24) There are beginning to be signs that 1st week of December will be the coldest temps so far the season.
Unlike last year I expect multiple rounds of very Cold temps at times this winter.
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1st Inch Snow: December 5th
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1st Cat 1 Storm: (3-5 inches): 12/12-12/13
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White Christmas: Yes
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Coldest Day: January 6th (16 degrees)
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Coldest Night: January 7th (-1 degrees)
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Snowiest Days: January 11th (16 Inches), February 3rd (17 Inches)
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Temperature: 1.5 degree Below Normal, last time over
?1 degree below Normal Winter Temps was 1982!
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Total Snowfall: 50.5 inches my average of these sites BWI, Columbia, Catonsville, Towson, Westminster, Bel Air.
领英推荐
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As always I will Post on any potential Winter Events accordingly
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Storm Categories/Impacts:
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Snow:
Cat 1: 3-5 Inches - Minimal impact, Local Travel Delays Possible
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Cat 2: 6-10 Inches- Moderate Impacts, Local Travel Delays Likely 1-2 Days
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Cat 3: 11-18 Inches- Significant Impacts, Widespread Travel Delays 2-3 Days, Property Damage
Possible, Local Power Outages Possible
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Cat 4: 19-29 Inches- Extreme Impacts, Widespread Travel Delays for 3+ Days, Property Damage likely, and Local Power Outages, likely
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Cat 5: 30+ Inches- Catastrophic Impacts, Local Travel Shut down 2+ Days, Delays up to 1-Week, Widespread Property Damage Likely, and Widespread Power Outages very likely
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Ice:
Cat 1: .25 Inch - Minimal impact, Travel Delays Possible
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Cat 2: .33- .50 Inch- Moderate Impacts, Travel Delays Likely 1-2 Days, Local Power Outages 24 Hours
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Cat 3: .60.-1.00 Inches- Significant Impacts, Widespread Travel Delays 2-3 Days, Property Damage Likely, Local Power Outages 24-36 Hours
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Cat 4: 1.25-1.75 Inches- Extreme Impacts, Widespread Travel Shut Down for 3 Days, Widespread Property Damage likely, and Widespread Power Outages 3 Days- Week
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Cat 5: 2+ Inches- Catastrophic Impacts, Widespread Travel Shut Down 2-3 Days Delays for up to a Week, Widespread Property Damage Likely, and Widespread Power Outages 1+ Weeks
As always I will Post on any potential Winter Events accordingly
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