Winners and losers under the MAHA agenda

At FS Supply, we often find ourselves talking to people overseas.

Last November, a striking number of conversations centered around President Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services. I counted three people — in three different countries — who brought up the news.

I happen to be a bit of a history buff. But before writing this email, if you put a gun to my head, I couldn’t name a single other HHS Secretary in American history.

I certainly couldn’t name a public health official from a foreign country, which, in one sense, is what three different people did in conversation back in November.

Which is why I think this moment is meaningful, and it could have a massive impact on the foodservice industry.

RFK arrives at his position with a genuine following. Although he holds some views that could charitably be called “polarizing,” when he ran for president he was?polling at upwards of 20% in some states, and today his social media following is in the tens of millions. (He’s also a Kennedy, which probably explains much of the fascination from our overseas friends. That name still carries a tremendous amount of weight.)

Regardless of any policy he does or doesn’t enact, RFK’s fame means he has the potential to?be the most influential HHS secretary ever.

His ideas around food won’t be new to anyone who’s been exposed to wellness influencers over the past year, but they’ll be more fully mainstreamed — and they’ll carry the weight of a $1.8 trillion agency.

How can restaurants and foodservice companies prepare? There are clues.

Shortly after RFK was nominated, we were graced by a somewhat incredible photo of RFK, Trump, Elon Musk and Don Jr. eating McDonald’s on Trump’s jet. RFK didn’t look… particularly happy to be photographed, but the photo seemed to signal that RFK isn’t going to ban the McNugget by fiat.

But — if we look at McDonald’s as an example — we could see a concerted effort for it and other fast food companies to make changes at the margins. One clear push will be for chains to switch from using seed oils to beef tallow in frying foods.

The MAHA movement goes hard against seed oils. And they support anyone who joins them in their quest: Steak n’ Shake’s tweet announcing the company’s switch to beef tallow garnered 100k likes on X. (Its previous tweets typically carry a couple dozen likes.)

The minute a top-10 chain announces its moving entirely to beef tallow, it will generate a massive online reaction — which increasingly seems to correlate with real-world action.

Which brings us to another potential winner under MAHA — challenger brands in general.

McDonald’s can’t flip a switch and immediately require all its franchises to switch back from canola oil to beef tallow. (I’m willing to bet there literally isn’t enough beef tallow in the country to support an overnight move of that scale.)

But smaller brands can seize the moment and get ahead of things.

We’re already seeing this with chains putting a heavy focus on the protein content of their meals, as Restaurant Business covered recently, with even chains like Panda Express introducing the “Balanced Protein Plate.”

And challenger brands that emphasize transparency and clean labels — or that satisfy cravings with limited added sugar and no artificial dyes — will find a wider market as elements of MAHA continue to garner influence.

(I’m not immune: Each night I eat anywhere from 1 to 5 peanut butter cups made by Unreal, a challenger brand that’s created a credible Reese’s alternative that contains significantly less sugar. By the time I get to 5 peanut butter cups, I’ve wiped out any health “benefits” from switching from Reese’s to Unreal… BUT, clearly I’ve bought into Unreal’s brand promise.)

At FS Supply, we’ve been thinking a lot lately about how we should future-proof a bit as the political winds start to briskly move.

For starters: We think Polystyrene foam is in for a very rough few years. We believe more research dollars will be directed at investigating the already-known harmful health risks that surround foam. City- and state-wide bans will proliferate, and the market will ultimately turn against the products.

For that reason, we’re also trying to get ahead of things. We will not offer or source polystyrene foam in any of our products. Instead, we’ll offer affordable alternatives for cups and containers that are made out of paper, sugarcane bagasse, or mineral-filled polypropylene.

We believe it’s possible to offer disposable goods that are less harmful to your health. And we’re eager to work with any brands that agree.