Wine Trends for 2023 to be on the look for.
Not saying that a crystal ball here but there are few quite evident trends emerging or rather hanging over from 2022 that will continue to impact this being said many of these will move from being a trend to being mainstream as a concept so let's explore.
Biodynamic, Organic, Regenerative & Natural Wine
The difference in 2023 will hopefully be the less interchangeability of these terms by wine merchants , writers and wine lovers as they are not interchangeable and or the same.
Each term has a specific process & practice associated with it which does not mean they are the same, in short :
Biodynamic is a holistic process and practice that takes in all elements associated with the creation of wine and how these impact and interplay with one another. This is about the impact of man/woman on his/her environment, a respect for the natural ebb and flow of nature and appreciation of a series of immutable laws of practice that date back many years
Organic is a practice or should I say a set of practices that are enforced to ensure that growth and development of " clean wine". Certification has played a big role here but that being said there are many wine makers practicing full organic practices whom are not certified yet could readily be accredited as such. Its not a marketing trend although sadly to many wine makers use it as simply that.
Regenerative Viticulture, not so much the new kid on the block but like biodynamic we are talking about a holistic process that takes into account the entire ecosystem, soil health, microbiological health and diversity, canopy management , harmony between the natural fauna and flora and carbon positive this is a step change for many growers as it requires a complete rethink of their viticultural practices and process. I am a big fan od the whole of system approach.
Natural wine, I think is was Lettie Teague from WSJ said " that these two words should never be allow to be co-joined as it wine is not natural than what the hell is it" .
I really hate the use of this term as it assumes that many wine makers are not making great wine because they have not jumped on what I consider still to be a bandwagon. I am not a big fan of wines in this category but do appreciate that there are so really cool Lo-Fi wines coming out but they are just up my lane.
Before I forget we have to loose the term "minimal intervention" WTF does that actually mean? Is the wine maker and viticulturist completely hands off, have they dumped all of their practices so as to allow wine to become what is wants
Alternative Wines
Another term I really would like to loose, why are they alternative is it simply that they are normally grown in a region or country or that they are so radically different from normally crop grapes that they need a new title.
Many of these alternative wines are very mainstream in many countries and now here in Australia we are starting to see some really big advances in new vine plantings such as Aligote, Gamay, Fiano , Silvaner, Assarinko, just to mention a few.
We are seeing new planting in the King Valley, Gundagai region, Tumburrumba , Yarra Valley and Mornington Peninsula which is really exciting for me as a wine lover who loves something a bit different in my glass
This is very much grower and wine maker driven as they look towards new varietals due to changes in root stock availability, climate change and just trying to future proof their business and continue to innovate.
Wine in a can, cardboard ?
This one ends up on the list most years and many dismiss it.
As technology improves so does the ability to place wine in alternative packaging formats so I won't limit this to wine in a can but can include wine in bag and box, cardboard bottles.
We have to make changes here as our carbon footprint as an importer I know what impact I am having has to be changed as we cannot continue to do what we are are doing and sadly I have no real way to offset my carbon cost effectively.
I am in big favour of differing non traditional packaging which is both light weight, environmentally sustainable and is carbon negative we have to change it is simple and for me it does not matter how wine is delivered to me as long as it continues to deliver it quality.
This is the year to break the mould and for some step change - challenge passed onto wine makers and lovers.
Inflated Point Scores.
For me personally this is my biggest bug bear and reading the likes of Lettie Teague, Alan Jefford and Eric Asimov all wine writers I greatly respect this issue is of great concern to them and one that needs immediate redress.
Point scores to me are subjective, point in time based , biased and for most times are not consistent or relevant.
Take for example two wines are both awarded 95 points , one is a Chardonnay from Burgundy and one is from the Hunter Valley how does the average wine lover make the decision is what is best?
If I move the Hunter wine to 98 points does this mean that by doing this and the higher score that this is a far greater wine?
Well, no for me as the true test of a great wine is with the wine drinker, point scores create an inherent bias that is based on a numerical and opposed to evidence based assessment.
Hang before you yell at me I know to reach the score the wines have to be tasted and assessed but that is not the assessment of the wine drinker this is completed by some faceless expert.
I would much prefer that we dump point scores, stars, goblets or what ever and just focus on providing really good reviews of the structure and nature of the wine why we feel forced to measure everything in the world of wine is beyond me as wine is equally an emotional choice and it is an empirical choice.
Interesting enough a recent survey showed that within the survey group which was about 5000 people more than 85% of people choose their wine based on the design and style of the label, sort of contradicts the whole point score dilemma as I wonder if there is any direct correlation here, that would make fascinating research.
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New and younger wine drinkers are becoming less and less interested to the point of being disinterested in point scores and more about their own personal experience with wine independent of what the experts say and more about what their peer group says.
Lets what and see what happens here.
Wine Influencers
This is like the story of the Good, The Bad and The Ugly, there are so many really fantastic and authentic people who fall into the good who I love and respect so much.
If you want to check out some of these people then please do , my list of some of most favourite good people include :
Ah the bad, I do not believe at heart that they are bad people at heart but they are amongst some of the most self focused and self seeking people I have met and in the words of Kim for Cath and Kim " look at me, look at me". I would love to name names here but think I might get myself sued here.
The Ugly, just those who use wine as a platform for shameless self promotion, they pretend to have a deep and passionate connection with wine who use social media not to advance the world of wine but to pander to their own ego's these people really grind me gears.
They tend to be followed by large groups of adoring zealots who cannot see the chaff for the hay, you know who you are.
What ever category they may fall into these influencers will continue to command both a presence and degree of influence about the way we see and an understand wine be that a positive or negative one they are here to stay you just have to work out whom you are going to invest your time with.
Big Box Retailers vs Independents
For those who live in Australia would already know that Dan Murphys dominates more than 70% of all wine sold here in Australia.
One could argue that this monopoly if we were add the likes of BWS, Vintage Cellars, Liquor Land they would hold an even greater share closer to 85%. Is this healthy for wine or not, you have to acknowledge that Dans has democratised the world of wine here in Australia its sheer retail and online footprint has seen to that occurring.
I cannot be to critical here as the big box stores will continue to play an important part in wine sales again.
Please do not let you think for one moment that there are not a cadre of deeply committed , passionate and very knowledgeable people many of whom are my friends who work for Dan Murphys and do an amazing job when it comes to wine.
But, I have to declare my hand & support for the great independents who really do such an amazing job in raising the bar when it comes to wine and wine knowledge and education in this country and than god for that
Locally here in Newcastle we are blessed with some really great independents , the likes of Vera Wine Merchants and Tighes Hill Cellars spring to mind, on the south coast of NSW in Kiama Manning Street Cellars, on the north coast The Ballina Cellars Group,in Canberra Ainslie Cellars, Cork & Glass & French Flair, in Melbourne the teams at Blackheart & Sparrows, Mordialloc Cellars, Red Hill Cellars, Union Street Cellars (Geelong), Prince Cellars and Armadale Cellars.
This is not an exhaustive list but one that shows you that the little guys punch well above their weight on selection, price and quality and really have you and your needs at heart as you are more than. just a sale you are a relationship waiting to be built.
Pricing and Premiumtisation
As inflationary pressures continue to present the pricing off wine is under pressure , indeed downstream supply chain pressure are adding further cost pressure to wine.
Wine moves into the discretionary purchase position as inflation creeps and we also observe downward price creep as per bottle price start to decline and more people look for the cheaper bottle of wine of maybe only buy one special bottle of wine instead of two during the week.
Pricing for wine is very elastic and does not shift to much as demand shifts that being said the average pricing on wine at retail in Australia on average is still less than $10,00 per bottle with more this accounts for around 60% of all wine sales nationally.
We are not the far out of step with the US where the average price per bottle is between $3,50 and $6,00 USD, there is a fear that pricing may be driven down further but the only thing stopping this is for the first time in many years we do not have an over supply of grapes globally .
Premium and super premium wines will become more of a luxury item except to those who have a greater disposable income where they feel less inflationary impact.
The prices here will continue to rise and rise substantially in 2023, poor past vintages, supply chain costs, availability will all add to the cost of premium wines personally I cannot see this changing in the foreseeable future.
Ex cellar pricing in the past 5 years from Burgundy have increased by more than 400%, to give you an example the ex cellar price of a village Chablis in 2015 was 6.00 Euro in 2022 it 14.35 Euro, Champagne prices have moved in the same vain but Bordeaux seems to have fallen somewhat in the past few months.
The challenge for retailers is to be able to provide a wide enough offering that still delivers gross profit without sacrificing their ranging and selection, there is one guarantee this year and that is prices right across the board for all wine will continue to increase.
I am sure there are a heap of other trends out there but I wanted to concentrate on the ones I believe impacted the majority of us as wine drinkers and lovers.
Now I am often criticised for being opinionated and outspoken so please take all the comments with the context that these are my views of the world, some of you may agree , some may not but that is the beauty of wine as everyone has and is entitled to opinion despite the fact you may not agree.
Santé and happy drinking kids
Accounting Navigator Now retired Partner at Deloitte Australia, National Wine Industry Leader
2 年Stephen Harvey