The Windsor Framework: Sunak's Ace Card?

EARLIER THIS WEEK (27th February) – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak defied the efforts of his Conservative Party predecessors to secure a highly-anticipated post-Brexit deal with the EU on Northern Ireland.

Dubbed the "best solution" for Northern Ireland after Brexit by its architects, Sunak’s ‘Windsor Framework’ is an amended version of the ‘Northern Ireland Protocol’ secured by former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.

Under the former Northern Ireland Protocol, new checks were imposed on goods?travelling from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) to Northern Ireland; a move which had many social and economic consequences for Northern Ireland – as well as political complications, too.

From never-ending Red Tape crippling local businesses to wider sensitivities over the Irish Sea border; the existing-yet-departing Protocol produced a litany of complications. Unionists (supporters of Northern Ireland being part of the UK) were keen to highlight how such a deal (and checks) creates an effective border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK; rendering the historic Good Friday Agreement (or Belfast Agreement) as meaningless.

However, following a series of multifaceted and incessant Parliamentary disputes, Sunak sought to better this – tabling a deal alongside President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, which welcomed a series of tangible solutions;

• The introduction of a new two-lane trade model: ‘Green Lane‘ (significantly less checks and paperwork for goods from Britain destined for Northern Ireland) and ‘Red Lane’ (unchanged checks for goods at risk of moving onto the EU)
• ‘Stormont Break’ – Northern Ireland Assembly powers to scrutinise any new proposed EU law which is “significantly different”.
• The application of UK VAT rules in Northern Ireland for alcoholic drinks (for immediate consumption) and immovable goods, such as heat pumps.

So, what next? Well, following yesterday’s announcement, Sunak has to ensure that his new proposal can muster up enough support to pass through Parliament. Luckily for Sunak, commentators have been quick to commend the deal as a reset moment for UK-EU relations – which at 27-pages and 12,000 words long, could mark the turning of a corner for the Rishi Sunak Government. More importantly, however,?the Windsor Framework seems to have won support amongst both DUP members and staunch Brexiteers – including that of former Brexit Secretary, David Davis and Northern Ireland Minister, Steve Baker.

If Sunak is able to cease this momentum, it is likely that dividends for his political stock will finally begin to pay. Not only would this secure Sunak as a leader of a government sounding-in stability and headway, it would also grant him the very unique position of being a post-Brexit Prime Minister with a cornerstone of relations alongside the EU, and its 27 members.