Windows on Mobile isn’t Dead, but Lumia is

I’m going to start this by disclosing something. Yes, I am a Microsoft fan. Yes, I have Surface tablets. Yes, I have a Lumia 950XL. Yes, I use Visual Studio. Yes, I use Office 365.

I also use Android, iOS, OS X, Xcode, Android Studio, Chrome OS, Google Apps, and Unity. Almost every day.

I feel I have to say all of this ahead of time for fear of being labeled as “apologist,” “fan boy” or worse. It is fascinating to see the posturing and sometimes just plain hate being slung around on the Internet. Between the “uplifting” comments sections on web pages, click-bait articles, and opinion pieces that do nothing more than throw blood into piranha-infested waters, the tech news industry has become a pretty dark and sad place.

I’m saying all of this because when I look at news about Microsoft, specifically Windows Phone and Windows 10 Mobile, it is a bloody gore-fest of reporting and commenting. So I wanted to put something out there that I thought could be more positive and frankly, more hopeful about what is going on.

First, let’s start with some really good news.

Windows 10 is kicking ass

It is. It really is! 200 million installs is a pretty impressive feat, and it is an accomplishment that hasn’t had its hurdles to overcome to reach it. The initial release version had bugs and issues, but a significant update resolved many of these issues, and the platform continues to get better and better. Are there still problems? Of course, there always will be. But this is an accomplishment that is pretty enviable.

Surface started as a joke and now is running to the bank

For a product that was once ridiculed and slammed at every chance (even when not warranted…*cough* NFL *cough*). The Surface team is a surging billion-dollar business. If you look at other products out there, Surface is also a product design that is very much being mimicked and copied. Did the Surface Book have product issues at launch? You bet it did. Which is why I didn’t buy one immediately. (Although I eventually did recently, and I am writing this post on it now). But through this expansion, I hope that Microsoft has learned from the rollout and will have better quality out of the gate in the future.

Microsoft Build sold out in seconds. Seconds!

When your main developer conference sells out in seconds, even when Microsoft said they were no longer going to give away hardware incentives to show up, you have to think that there might be some surging interest in the platform. Windows 10 and the Universal App platform aren’t even a year old yet, but it is growing, traffic on the Windows Store is growing, and more and more developers are indicating that they expect to develop for Windows in the coming year.

Office on [INSERT PLATFORM NAME] is awesome

iOS? Android? Windows 10? Desktop? OS X? It really doesn’t matter which platform you mention, but Office is getting a lot of praise for its solid support and features across so many desktop and device platforms. A coworker of mine was just commenting on how impressed he was with Office for iOS, and he hated Office in the past. It has been an interesting pivot for Microsoft, and one that has turned more than a few heads, especially when you are featured at an Apple product keynote.

Continuum for mobile is just too damn cool

Continuum on Windows 10 Mobile is a glimpse into what is yet to come. Is it viable today? Not really. But it is something that I really believe can change computing. When it came out, I wasn’t convinced, but then I tried it, and I was really impressed with what it was able to do. It is a showcase for what the Universal App platform can do across the spectrum of device types.

Xbox One no longer sucks

The new Windows 10 dashboard update for Xbox One is really nice. The system is faster, easier to navigate, and just makes more sense than it did before. I haven’t met anyone that hasn’t liked the update, and there were a lot of people that didn’t like the original Xbox One interface.

But…

But what is getting all the attention are the super low and dramatically declining numbers for Lumia sales and the market share for Windows on mobile. My feed was filled with headlines similar to “Windows Phone is dead!” “Microsoft should just call it quits!” and more.

But this isn’t the picture that I see for the next year. Yes, Lumia is a dead product line. There may be one more Lumia release coming (but even that was delayed). But then it will end. I think this is for a few reasons. First, the Lumia brand is tainted. It is ridiculed and the popular target in the phone industry—almost as much as Blackberry. Second, with the Surface surging, it makes sense to rally behind that brand to hopefully get a halo effect. But lastly, focusing efforts on Universal Apps for Windows 10 now will only strengthen what a future device portfolio can accomplish down the road. Will we see the rumored, “Surface Phone”? Sure, we might. I hope we do. But I frankly would want Microsoft to focus on the developer community and to support the growing need for apps to be on Windows 10 to get the ecosystem healthy and ready for re-expansion of the device portfolio.

Don’t look now, but all of the platforms are kinda hurting

While all of the focus is on Windows on mobile, when you take a step back, you’ll find that all three platforms are kinda in a weird place. iOS is doing well, but it is starting to get overly complicated, and the forced tie-ins are weighing on consumers. iPhone sales have flattened and are expected to decline. iPad sales have slowed, and the iPad Pro got the more lukewarm reception an Apple product has received in recent memory. Android is a fragmented mess. Samsung is struggling. The Nexus devices aren’t selling very well. The Pixel C had a super-weird launch with a clear confliction on direction. And Chrome OS is, well, still around, but the lines with Android are starting to get super muddled.

The way forward with mobile and devices is not simply going to increment the device model by one. It is going to require a compelling reason to encourage customers to upgrade, and not through planed obsolesce with product tie ins or gimmicks. Consumers are smarter and savvier than ever and they can see through bull shit when it is served to them.

So am I said to see Lumia decline and (probably) die a silent and slow death? Sure. But when you look at the big picture, the platform play is growing, and the industry as a whole is going to need a lot on all fronts to determine what is next.