Winding the clock down..

There is popular adage in sports that individual athletes and teams that are in an advantageous position "wind the clock down" so their opponents essentially run out of time to defeat them. In the context of the 2024 US Presidential election in November, this seems to be the tactic the Biden campaign has employed to ensure he survives as the Democratic Party nominee.

Given his disastrous debate performance against the Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and falling poll numbers there have been widespread calls from within the Democratic Party, at least a dozen lawmakers in Congress and many more influential party pundits, for President Biden to step down.

The challenge Democrats have is that without Joe Biden voluntarily stepping down there is no way to replace him without burning the house down. Biden has been clear he is not stepping down and has openly goaded his opponents from within his party to challenge him at the convention. His campaign strategy is they will wind the clock down and that post-convention, the Democratic Party will fall into line and support him.

The Democratic Party are devoid of options when it comes to potential replacements even if they can convince President Biden to step down. The talks of governors Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg even Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock fail to recognise it's practically too late for anyone who's not named Kamala Harris to replace President Biden. There is only one Democrat Party campaign with the infrastructure, money, support and focus at the moment and it belongs to President Joe Biden. Attempting to establish, fund and successfully campaign in two months from DNC Convention to the election in November will be nigh on impossible..unless you are Vice President Kamala Harris who has her own struggles with popularity among voters.

Winding down the clock..geopolitically

Geopolitically, the winding the clock down strategy is also fraught with uncertainty and danger. The current morass in US politics as I've previously written is causing uncertainty globally which certain state actors are taking advantage of. Just this week Russia has targeted and bombed civilian areas, ratcheting up the pressure in the war with Ukraine. Hamas have been resistant and belligerent in it's war with Israel understanding that a weakened US means they do not have to capitulate and infact they may be able to even survive the war.

The feedback from world leaders in private have demonstrated doubt and concern about whether President Biden remains the Democratic nominee let alone being able to serve another four years should he win in November. What this causes is world leaders to try and predict the outcome and recalibrate accordingly. Unfortunately this can cause miscalculation which can potentially lead to catastrophic wars.

Winding down the clock may help President Biden domestically but it is increasing the dangers geopolitically.

Lani Refiti is a Co-founder and Partner at Azcende VC, a venture capital and advisory firm focused on national security. He writes and speaks regularly on the nexus between national security and emerging technology, in particular artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity.