Wildfires

Our home in Northwest Austin, Texas, is less than 3 miles from the site of the September 4, 2011 fire that engulfed part of the Steiner Ranch neighborhood.? We could see and smell the smoke from this fire at our home and the news media were filled with pictures from that fire as well as the six other fires in our area over the next two days .? It would be different if this cluster of fires was a fluke; unfortunately, periodic fire events like these are the norm in this hot, dry, windy climate. This was one instance where we were very concerned about becoming a statistic.

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2024: the Smokehouse Creek fire grew from 100,000 to 500,000 acres within 24 hours, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. John Nielsen-Gammon , the Texas State Climatologist and Professor of Atmospheric Science at Texas A&M University, stated that the Smokehouse Creek fire grew so big so quickly because of three factors: high temperatures, low relative humidity and strong winds. These conditions are common in the Panhandle area, and not unusual across much of Texas.

On Thursday, February 29, 2024, a New York Times tracker based on federal data showed more than one million acres burning, making the Smokehouse Creek fire one of the most destructive in U.S. history. One way to conceptualize this is that the amount of land affected is nearly as big as the Grand Canyon National Park. Two people are confirmed dead and the fire continues to spread in Texas and into Oklahoma.? It covers a land mass larger than the state of Delaware.

WILDFIRES ARE EXPENSIVE IN LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY: Texas is currently the state with the second highest number of properties that are vulnerable to wildfires, behind Florida, according to analysis by the nonprofit research group First Street Foundation[i]. Wildfires cause increases in costs for people not directly affected by the event. Texas homeowners saw their insurance rates increase 53.6 percent between 2019 and 2023, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence . That was the highest percentage increase of any state except Arizona.

WHAT ARE SOME THINGS PEOPLE CAN DO:

The Smokehouse Creek fire serves as a stark reminder of the importance of awareness and readiness in the face of current weather phenomena, emphasizing the critical role of preparedness in safeguarding communities from such calamities. There are also things to consider in response to Wildfire events.

1.?????? Be aware of Wildfire potential

The likelihood of Wildfires increases with three factors; rainfall over time, average temperature over time, and increased winds, which can come with advancing fronts.? People who wish to stay informed have online sources for information. Texas A & M has likelihood of fire data for Texas .

Guidelines exist for homeowners in the form of the National “Firewise”[ii] program which helps homeowners review options for preventing wildfires at their homes.

Along with many other incorporated areas in Texas, the Austin Fire Department has Firewise resources .

2.?????? The earlier a fire is detected, the more effectively it can be treated

Many people are aware of the November 8, 2018 Paradise, CA fire, also known as the Camp Fire.? News outlets continued to show the horrific fire and devastation over the 17 days that it took to extinguish it.? 85 people were killed; 90% of the homes were destroyed.? Although the fire probably started at 6:15 am and was initially reported to 911 by 6:30, the fire progressed unimpeded igniting downwind in Paradise, and being reported at 7:30 to 911 in that area. It was 11:45 before Fire crews deployed! More than 5 hours elapsed before the fire was addressed, partially because it started in a location away from population. The National Institute of Standards and Technology’s animation of the fire’s spread is compelling.

As a result of this disaster, careful analyses were done to try to find the places where the system failed. This Old House, Season 41 , had episodes about “Rebuilding Paradise”, including specialized building materials and techniques. One of the specialized techniques was AI- assisted fire detection cameras produced by SmokeD, a company with an Austin presence.

AI ENABLED cameras:

Two companies, ?SmokeD and Pano AI , are currently in the Austin, Texas area. Both systems use dedicated cameras to identify likely sources of fires.? Both systems utilize machine learning, but can be differentiated by the manner in which the individual system “learns”.

SmokeD’s cameras can be observed through the smart phone “SmokeD” app.? In the Austin market, the app will display both the Austin cameras and other locations, including SmokeD’s cameras in Paradise, CA.? The app has an interactive function encouraging public input and can be accessed by the general public. SmokeD informs the Austin Fire Department. SmokeD cameras are currently live on Coldwater Mountain and Karlin’s Highpoint 2222 development .

Pano AI will have information accessed by the Austin Fire Department as part of its contract with the City of Austin .? Installations of the Pano AI cameras are scheduled in 2024

THE FUTURE:

Will there be a repeat of September, 2011 in our neighborhood?? Will fires like the Smokehouse Creek be the new normal for people in Texas and throughout North America? The loss of lives, property and long-term health effects are expensive; so too is the rebuilding and associated cost of living expenses. These critical questions require proactive involvement on both the personal and governmental levels.

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