Wildfires in California: The numbers behind how we got here
By: Jon Sonnenschein
Wildfires in California over the last decade have both dramatically changed our understanding of the risk, but also left us scratching our heads. We’ve learned so much about them, yet, they regularly “break the rules”.?
They’re occurring in places they’ve never occurred before, they’re hopping over roads and bodies of water, and they’re burning in new (and dangerous) ways.
So…what can be done about this seemingly impossible-to-manage risk? Let’s first take a look at the last few years to better understand where we stand today, in 2023.
In 2017, after the worst hurricane season on record in over a decade, California wildfire season didn’t hold back. Between October and December of that year, 5 of the 20 most destructive wildfires in the state’s history occurred.?
The total economic losses were estimated to be $27.4 billion.
The fires damaged 27 wineries in Northern California, destroying thousands of structures in their paths. This is particularly of note, as fire and smoke damage to grapes and vines can take multiple years to recover, meaning these fires devastated the multi-billion dollar California wine industry not just in 2017, but for years to come.
After the catastrophic 2017 season, some thought perhaps it was an anomaly; bad timing after the hurricane season but not the “new norm”.
Then 2020 happened.
In 2020, 4.2 million acres burned in California. If a reference point is needed to understand how much space that is, it’s equivalent to the entire area of Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties combined. George Morris from CAL Fire was astonished by the 2020 season, sharing "that is on a scale that has not been experienced in California in at least 100 years.”?
On top of this, the 2020 fires in California caused twice the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that the state had successfully cut between 2003 and 2019, wiping out 16 years of progress on climate change.
The LA times captured the sentiment following the 2020 season perfectly with one headline:
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With the 2020 California fires causing another $23.1 billion in economic losses, it’s clear that this risk isn’t getting any milder. Which begs the question: what can be done?
The unfortunate answer: not much. The reality of the situation is that catastrophes like wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity due to the onset of climate change.?
That said, while there’s little that can be done about wildfires actually occurring, there is quite a bit that can be done to make a property more resilient against fires, and even more can be done from an insurance perspective in gauging the risk adequately.
But, it all starts with a fundamentally better understanding of wildfires.?
Terrafuse provides an accurate view of wildfire risk to insurers and insureds by understanding the environmental and climate factors that contribute to the risk. We’re on a mission to embed climate intelligence into as many functions of the property insurance workflow as possible. And, we’re able to do this significantly more quickly, rapidly, and frequently than most modelers given our machine learning patents.
As there has been an explosion of Earth data in the last three years, Terrafuse has been at the forefront of harnessing this data and incorporating variables like vegetation health and moisture into our models - most vendors aren’t able to or don’t yet know how to leverage this information.?
An example of this kind of information can be seen when looking at the current state of California - it’s been a particularly wet year thanks to atmospheric rivers. This will cause vegetation to grow greatly, leading to a likely severe wildfire season next year.?
Models in the market today won’t be able to reflect that kind of information in their outputs.
Terrafuse can, and will.?
We’ll be talking a lot more about who we are and how we play in this space over the coming weeks, months, and even years as we build on our mission. For now, stay tuned for our next upcoming piece on mitigating wildfire risk, and how we’re helping do so.