THE WILD WEST AND LITTLE RED RIDDING HOOD

Paloma's Travel Diary - For What It's Worth N°15

"There's a whole ocean of oil under our feet! No one can get at it except for me!" - Daniel Plainview

Dear Readers,??

In the wake of Trump's triumphant return to the White House (because who doesn't love a sequel?), my journeys have taken me through the corridors of power in Brussels, the environmental battlegrounds of Spain, and the protectionist strongholds of Paris. ?

It's been a month of political drama that would make even Daniel Plainview's oil-soaked scheming look like a kindergarten sandbox dispute.?

The film that inspired us is There Will Be Blood, a heartwarming tale about the joys of capitalism and the oil industry. Because nothing says "fun" like ruthless ambition and family dysfunction, right? Besides, it’s an opportunity to spend time watching Daniel Day-Lewis, on whom I have a never-ending crush.?

My conclusion: This is a time of great upheaval and even greater opportunity. Those who can navigate these turbulent waters with the finesse of a bull in a China shop (i.e., float any old way and not go asunder) will reap the rewards. As one sees it from our Darwin shop, Trump’s ever more colourful line-up could feature in a Wild West movie (though not perhaps True Grit), while the EU Commissioners-in-waiting look more like Little Red Riding Hood cautiously ogling the forest ahead. Not a match for transactional times.... "In this new era of global politics, it's not about being liked - it's about being effective”?

Let's examine the key events of the past month and what they mean for our collective sanity.?

What if we start with some Plainview-inspired political wisdom...?

"I drink your milkshake!" - Daniel Plainview?

1. The Brussels Battleground: Parliamentary hearings of Commissioner nominees revealed a power struggle that make Game of Thrones look like a family game of musical chairs. It is not about how good you will be at your future job but for whom or against what your party will trade you. Featuring prominently is Spain’s conservative party, choosing to discredit one of their country’s most powerful ever Commissioners-to-be as a means of covering up one of their mate’s breathtaking incompetence (see next point).?
2. Spain's Environmental Tragedy: The catastrophic flooding in Valencia, with at least 222 deaths, has turned into a political firestorm. The right (that ‘governs’ the region) and the left slinging – tragically ironic – mud at each other. Who knew that ignoring climate change could have political consequences? Shocking, truly shocking.?
3. French Trade Tribulations: Europe’s former trade supremo, now the country's Head of a government awaiting the firing squad, is embracing an anti-globalization stance and refusing to sign the five-year-old EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Suddenly, no one acknowledges its enormous strategic importance, mentions its limited scope in terms of trade, or even confronts the lie that imports need not comply with EU standards. Of course they must. This new genuflection before France’s powerful agricultural lobby marks a significant and unprecedented shift in French economic policy. Liberté, égalité, fraterni≠—té... unless you're a foreign import.?
4. American Aftershocks: Trump's 2024 victory, securing 312 Electoral College votes and sweepingly winning all seven Swing States, has sent shockwaves through global politics. His win signals a definitive return to "America First" policies and a reshaping of international alliances. Because who needs allies when you can have Twitter – sorry: “X” – followers??
5. The Oil of Power: How the thirst for political dominance is reshaping global dynamics, from EU policy to US-China relations. It's like a global game of Risk, but with real consequences!?

What's up in the Global Economy?

"I'm finished!" - Daniel Plainview?

While the politically fuelled Stock Exchanges rejoice:?

• Dow Jones: 36,542 to 38,105 (+4.3%)?

• NASDAQ: 14,850 to 15,623 (+5.2%)?

• S&P 500: 4,680 to 4,912 (+5.0%)?

• FTSE 100: 7,410 to 7,585 (+2.4%)?
• Dollar Index (DXY): 104.8 to 106.2 (+1.3%)?
• EUR/USD: 1.072 to 1.058 (-1.3%)?
• Bitcoin: $38,500 to $95,000??

The US indices are soaring higher than a Silicon Valley startup's valuation, while European markets are playing catch-up like they're in a never-ending game of economic tag. The dollar is flexing its muscles. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is doing what Bitcoin does best - giving a heart attack to both its lovers and haters.?

Basics on the regulatory

"I'm an oil man." - Daniel Plainview?

US: Trump's 2024 victory signals a definitive return to deregulation and "America First" economic policies, including all-out pollution. Because who needs clean air when you can have clean coal??

EU: Shift towards stricter migration policies and potential trade protectionism. Building walls is the new building bridges.?

CHINA: Continued focus on long-term economic planning and strategic investments. Playing the long game while everyone else plays checkers.?

In my humble opinion

“There are times when I... I look at people and I see nothing worth liking." - Daniel Plainview?

This is a time of seismic shifts and unprecedented opportunities. The political landscape is being redrawn faster than you can say "geopolitical chaos." Like Daniel Plainview, success will come to those who can spot the opportunities others miss and have the courage (or audacity) to seize them.?

Until next time, dear readers, stay alert, stay agile, and remember in this new era of global politics, it's not about being liked - it's about being effective.??

Paloma Castro Martínez is an international lawyer and strategist, focusing on geopolitical and business ecosystems. Formerly head of Corporate Affairs for FT 100 companies; LVMH, LIME, Richemont, McDonalds, eBay /Paypal. Presently, Paloma Castro advises companies on strategic positioning and building networks with media, business and Decision makers in London, Berlin, Roma, Madrid, Paris and Brussels, Washington.

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