Wild neighbors are sneaking around: ?Pannonia story?

“Climate change and biodiversity decline… the living world will endure, but humans…, we humans cannot presume the same. We’ve come this far because we are the smartest creatures that have ever lived. But to continue we require more than intelligence, we require wisdom.”. So, Attenborough adds: ?Rewilding seems key; while certain scientists focus on technological solutions like carbon capture, nature has its own regulatory systems that are ready to help tackle the problem - if we just allow it to do so.?

Honest, revealing and personal, David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet - powerful first-hand account of humanity’s impact on nature and a message of hope for future generations. So, what we can do? What can each of us do as an individual to prevent biodiversity declining? This is my story.

In the last two stories I introduced you to the world of rewilding (https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/why-rewilding-still-so-controversial-matko-biscan/), how the idea of my PhD began, how it continued to develop through trophic levels, complex relationships within ecosystems (https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/journey-unknown-yellowstone-story-matko-biscan), and now is the time to round out that story, my PhD story, the rewilding story. I will finish my PhD with a topic that is increasingly preoccupying the scientific community - large carnivore management and human-wildlife coexistence i.e. probably ongoing rewilding process in Pannonia (Croatia).

The recolonization of wolves in European human-dominated landscapes poses a conservation challenge to protect this species and manage conflicts. The question of how humans can co-exist with large carnivores often triggers strong emotions. Using existing knowledge on large carnivore management from Europe and other parts of the globe, Kuijpera et all. (2019) present four potential wolf management scenarios: 1) population control, 2) protection and compensation, 3) fencing, 4) managing behaviour of wolf and man. For each scenario they explore its possible impact on wolf ecology and ecosystem effects and its effectiveness for reducing wolf-human conflicts.

Population control and fencing of local wolf populations are problematic because of their ecological impacts and conflicts with European legislation. In contrast, a no-interference approach does not have these problems but will likely increase human-wolf conflicts. Despite the major challenges in European, human-dominated landscapes, wolf management must focus on strengthening the separation between humans and wolves by influencing the behavior of wolves and humans on a fine spatio-temporal scale to prevent and reduce conflicts. As separation also demands a sufficiently large wild prey base, so restoring natural ungulate populations, to reduce human-wolf conflicts. Mutual avoidance provides the key to success and is critical to avoid creating the conditions for reinstating wolf persecution as the default policy in Europe.

So third part of my PhD is indirectly focused on preparing local community, stakeholders and also scientific community about possible (but probably already ongoing) wolf rewilding process across Pannonian region in Croatia - managing behaviour of wolf and man.

The wolf population in Croatia is part of a larger Dinaric-Balkan population that inhabits Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and continues to the south of the Dinarides. In Croatia, the wolf is constantly present along the Dinarides, from the border with Slovenia to Montenegro. The appearance of wolves in the area of Petrova gora and ?umberak (the area between the Dinarides and Pannonia) does not yet meet the criteria for the inclusion of these areas in areas of permanent distribution. But, hundred years ago wolves had inhabited the entire area of Croatia, since to hunting statistics in 1894 at least one wolf was killed in each of the then counties. (Antolovi?, J. et all., 2006., Jeremi?, J. et all., 2017). In 1879, the last wolf ?disappeared? from Kopa?ki rit.

In March 2016, in the area of the Papuk Nature Park (Pannonia), several harmful events occurred on livestock where damage was suspected to have been caused by a wolf, although wolf has not been recently recorded in that area. Habitat suitability map shows that the Papuk area is in the category of high suitability of wolf habitat quality, and the appearance of wolves should not come as a surprise. Therefore, following the above-mentioned harmful events, a member of the Wolf Intervention Team went out to inspect where he concluded that the damage was very likely caused by a wolf. Although there is a possibility of a wolf on Papuk, it is necessary to make an effort to systematically collect data, educate livestock breeders and start cooperation with local hunting societies. The fact is that this is an area of extreme habitat suitability, but only by systematically monitoring and recording signs of presence over a long period of time will it be possible to better interpret situations. (Jeremi?, J. et all., 2017)

But why Pannonia? It is important to emphasize the central role of Pannonia in reconnecting European regional populations (e.g. regional populations of grey wolf - Dinaric-Balkan and Carpathian populations). Pannonian area in Croatia (and also in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary) is a possible key habitat to bridge and potentially reconnect local populations. Especially considering the fact that this region has lots of semi natural habitats in good ecological condition and with low human footprint (due to war depopulation). Also, this area has three big rivers (Drava and Danube (UNESCO Biosphere Reserve), Sava) with still lots of semi natural habitats. Also, there are Slavonian Highlands (Psunj, Papuk, Krndija, Po?e?ka gora, Dilj, Petrova gora, Zrinska gora) that can, with rivers, connect the whole area. Even the Slavonian highlands are isolated and surrounded with open habitats (agricultural area) that are avoided by wolves; there are more and more farmland and plains under ecological succession which can provide a suitable habitat for a grey wolf. There is a high probability that at Nature Park Papuk (protected area with low human disturbance) wolfs has already created a pack because there is possible prey (deer, wild boar and also cattle that people are not used to protect because the wolf was not there for a decade), and the area is protected by the law. This wolf pack probably came from Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it is not scientifically proven even his origin or his existence.

Because of urbanization and the resulting loss of wildlife habitat, identifying and protecting suitable ecological areas and landscape corridors is important to ensure the viability of wildlife populations (Kindall & Van Manen, 2007). In recent decades, there has been lots of research on the topic of carnivore rewilding/reintroduction, which is summarized by (Wolf, C. & Ripple, W., 2018). Carnivores in smaller protected areas may be more vulnerable to negative edge effects just outside reserve borders involving hunting or trapping by humans and conflict with humans over livestock and agriculture, particularly when efforts like fence construction are not taken to reduce conflict in surrounding buffer zones.

So, third step in my PhD project will be defining possible rewilding process of areas without any human disturbance in Croatia (Pannonia), i.e. analyzing possibilities for creating/defining ecological corridors that will (or already are) connect (semi) natural habitats of carnivores in Croatia, or habitats where carnivores were historically present (e.g. connecting Carpathian and Dinaric-Balkan grey wolf population). 

As we are lacking forefront planning of wildlife chain over geographical scale, connecting local populations between different countries is important step. Animals are returning to some of these areas where human population has been decreased / displaced, or hunting has stopped, but we never discus about that in advance, but it just happens. This is a trial to think about next 30 years and how animals will rewild these areas. I’m aware that during this PhD project I won’t rewild this area, but this is just a start. Pannonia with large carnivores is probably not just a dream; it’s an ongoing process that has already started and can be probably reached in 30 years, so as soon as we (scientists) get involved, we can help both - community and their wild neighbours.

If we, regarding the modelling, can ensure conditions for an ecological corridors and rewilding, what will be a response of the local community? Are we ready?

 References:

Antolovi?, J., Frkovi?, A., Grube?i?, M., Holcer, D., Vukovi?, M., Flaj?man, E., Grgurev, M., Hamidovi?, D., Pavlini?, I. i Tvrtkovi?, N. (2006): Croatian Red Book of Mammals. Ministry of Culture, State Institute for Nature Protection, Zagreb, Croatia

Jeremi?, J., Kusak, J., Huber, ?., ?trbenac, A., Kor?a, A. (2017): Report on the state of the wolf population in Croatia in 2016, Croatian Environment and Nature Agency, Zagreb, Croatia

Kindall, J. & Van Manen, F. (2007): Identifying habitat linkages for American black bears in North Carolina, USA. Journal of Wildlife Management, 71, pp. 487-495.

Kuijpera, D.P.J., Churskia, M., Trouwborstb, A., Heurichc, M., Smitd, C., Kerleye, G.I.H., Cromsigte, J.P.G.M. (2019): Keep the wolf from the door: How to conserve wolves in Europe's humandominated landscapes?, Biological Conservation, 235, pp. 102–111

Wolf, C. & Ripple, W. (2018): Rewilding the world’s large carnivores. Royal Society Open Science 5(3):172235 (https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.172235).