Wild Card Weekend Explained

The NFL playoffs are here with each matchup having an eye catching storyline. From Matthew Stafford's return to his old stomping grounds to take on the Detroit Lions to a matchup between two historical franchises in the Packers and Cowboys. I will breakdown each Wild Card game and who I think will win.

Cleveland Browns v Houston Texans

The Wild Card weekend kicks off in Houston as the unexpected AFC South Champion Texans host the Browns. This game will likely be decided by how the sensational rookie Quarterback Cj Stroud can handle a dominant Browns defense led by Myles Garrett. Stroud is basically a lock to win offensive rookie of the year after finishing the season with 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions in 15 games. Stroud could have his hands full as he faces arguably his toughest defensive matchup all season.

The Browns defense gives up a league low 270.2 yards per game which could make things difficult for Stroud and the Texans at home. On offense, the Browns are led by Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco who went from hated to beloved in Cleveland by leading the Browns to Playoffs. Flacco's unexpected football revival is one of the best stories in the NFL this season, the veteran Quarterback won four of his five starts and threw 13 touchdowns. I expect Flacco to continue to elevate his game in the playoffs as his experience will be a major advantage for the Browns on the road. With that said, my pick for the winner of this game is the Cleveland Browns as I expect their prolific defense to be able to contain Stroud and the Texans offense.

Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs

In arguably the best head to head quarterback matchup of the weekend, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins go on the road to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins ended up in this game by losing their week 18 matchup against the Buffalo Bills who stole both the AFC East and #2 seed in the AFC from them. Injuries could have a major impact on this game as the Dolphins injury struggles continue to be a problem for them. The Dolphins will be without their cornerback Xavien Howard and Linebacker Jerome Baker, their other Linebackers in Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel have both been placed on injured reserve.

As for the defending champion Chiefs, they come into this game with some question marks on offense despite a solid 11-6 season they have not been as dominant as in previous seasons. An issue that impacted the Chiefs offense all season that could impact Saturday's game especially considering the inclement weather is dropped passes. Kansas City dropped a league high 44 passes this season which is a major reason why Mahomes's passing numbers had a bit of a drop off. Still, I expect the Chiefs to bounce back from some of their offensive woes against an injury riddled Dolphins defense at home to get the win. I also expect the Chiefs #2 ranked defense to contain the Dolphins prolific offense especially considering how the weather could affect the Dolphin passing game.

Pittsburgh Steelers v Buffalo Bills

Sunday's playoff slate kicks off with two teams that at several points during the season appeared unlikely to make the playoffs. However, both teams would not be denied as Bills took down the Dolphins on the road to capture the AFC east title. The Steelers were able to improve some of their offensive woes thanks to a potent run game helping them win 3 straight games to close out the season to capture the 7th seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh was dealt a tough blow with Tj Watt being ruled for this game due to a knee injury but expect them to rely heavily on their run game to keep the Bills offense off the field.

Conversely, I expect the Bills offense to rely heavily on the arm of Josh Allen to attack a Steeler defense that has been heavily impacted by injuries. If Josh Allen can avoid costly turnovers that were an issue for him at times throughout the season the Bills offense should perform well against a TJ Watt-less Steeler defense. I anticipate Allen being at his best which is why I have the red hot Bills continuing their momentum into the postseason and winning this one at home.

Green Bay Packers v Dallas Cowboys

Both of these teams come into this game with vastly different expectations but who is better suited to handle the pressure? The Dallas Cowboys this year arguably more than recent years have more pressure to win the Super Bowl. No player on the Cowboys is under more scrutiny than their Quarterback, Dak Prescott but he has responded by having the best season of his career. Dak is the league leader in Touchdowns this season and has at times played at an MVP level especially at home.

Don't sleep on Jordan Love however as he quietly has the second most touchdowns this season. The third year quarterback has led the Packers to the playoffs in his first year as a starter and looking to make the huge upset over the Cowboys. To do so he will have to avoid turning the ball over which the Cowboys defense have been great at all season. Their young cornerback Daron has put together an All-Pro season with an NFL record five pick-6. In the end, I expect Dallas to be too much for the Packers at home as I believe Dak will outperform Jordan Love. I also see the Cowboy defense forcing the Packers offense to be one dimensional which could lead to turnovers.

Los Angeles Rams v Detroit Lions

This Wild Card matchup is by far my favorite of the Wild Card weekend as not only do I expect the game to be fun to watch the storyline behind feels like right out a movie. Matthew Stafford returns to the team he spent the first 12 years of his career now as a super bowl champion. He matches up with the Quarterback he was traded for in Jared Goff who led the the Lions to their first NFC division title in 30 years. Both Quarterbacks come into this matchup following pro bowl caliber seasons in a game that could likely turn into a shootout. Goff has been no stranger to putting points up as he finished the season 2nd in the league in passing yards with 4,575 and 30 passing touchdowns.

After a slow start to the season, Stafford closed the season out strong scoring 15 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions in his final 6 games. Stafford will look to continue his hot streak against a Lion defense that gives up 247.4 passing yards which is the sixth most in the league. However, I expect Jared Goff to rise to the moment at home and for the Lions to use their two dynamic running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to counter the Rams offense. This game admittedly was my toughest game to pick a winner for as this is the most even playoff matchup. In a game that will likely be a tight contest throughout I will take the Lions to win a close game in front of a raucous home crowd.

Philadelphia Eagles v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the final game of Wild Card weekend we are treated to two that could have a lot to gain if they find a way to win this game. The Eagles come into this game off a disappointing finish to the regular season losing 5 of their last 6 games. Even worse, two of their key players in Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown suffered injuries in their week 18 loss to the Giants. The most concerning aspect of the Eagles over the past several weeks that could cost them in the playoffs has been their struggling defense. Philadelphia gave up a staggering 356.1 yards per game and have been especially weak in their secondary giving up 252.7 passing yards per game. Their surprising drop off to close the season after a 10-1 not only cost them a NFC east title but possibly a chance to avenge last year's Super Bowl loss.

To some degree, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing with house money as their season went far better than many anticipated with Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback. Mayfield not only lead the Bucs to the playoffs as NFC South winners but also had a career best season. In his first year as the Bucs starter Mayfield had career highs in both passing yards and touchdowns with 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns respectively. The Bucs offense had back to back poor performances to close the season with an ugly home loss to the Saints and a hard fought win over the 2-15 Panthers. Though with the Eagles defensive issues they have a great chance to bounce back offensively at home. Due to this, I am taking the Bucs to get the win over an Eagles team that jahhad to many problems show up in the latter part of the season that will cost them in the end.