The Wide Angle: the nCoV crisis and the ongoing "information war"

Introduction

In an excellent and now viral article Mario Cavolo says “Something is not right”[i] and recounts quite precisely the facts around the current corona virus outbreak in China and the hysterical response by Western media, putting it in factual relation to the H1N1 outbreak in America some years back. 

This article is much less about the historical development of the epidemics, nor about a precise timeline of the events in China, but about what we should now acknowledge as an actual information warfare, with the global public opinion about China being the booty at stake. I tell in 9 points how I witness a campaign to smear the image of China, by using the occasion of a still relatively unknown threat – a virus which could also hurt the rest of the world. I try to source most of the statements, but as news have been overflowing through all channels, please just ask for sources if one is missing, or feel free to add other points. I try to give a structure of how the total narrative evolved. Some 20+ relevant sources are at the end of the articlewith links.

Overview

Stage 1: the virus is discovered

1.      Discovery

2.      Fast response by China and positive international feedback

3.      Worsening situation and escalation of the government response

Stage 2: the information war begins

4.      The tone in Western media suddenly turns negative, rumors and fake news go wild

5.      China centralizes its response team and shifts the country to crisis mode – Xi takes the helm

6.      The foreign attempts to profit from the situation escalate, claims of a inner-Chinese “movement” against the government and for freedom of speech are circulated

Stage 3: China wins the battle but the war has just begun

7.      In a double blow China regains control of the narrative

8.      Just in the perfect moment, the number of infections also starts to substantially drop

9.      The very next day, US Secretary of State launches full racist attack against all Chinese in the USA, warning of “infiltration by the Communist Party of China” and suspects are all Chinese communities.

Detailed look

Stage 1: the virus is discovered

1.      A new type of virus was discovered in January in Wuhan

2.      Within weaks from declaring the virus a threat, China

a.      Analyzed the full DNA

b.      Shared the results with the global community

c.      Started a massive information campaign within China to tell people to take precautions

d.      The WTO quickly commented very positively on the openness and speed of the Chinese response

e.      An American doctor was quoted as totally amazed how China could get the DNA analyzed so quickly

3.      The situation deteriorated and numbers of infected people rose quickly, while the massive spring festival “migration” was about to happen. China responded among others by

a.      Restricting the most affected region severely, including the famous lock down of Wuhan – city of 11 million people

b.      Strongly recommending face masks outdoors in most cities

c.      Measuring temperature of people at all train and subway stations, supermarkets, airports

d.      Cancelling all public events for the Chinese New Year and closing down tourism cites to avoid big crowds where viruses could spread quickly

e.      Starting to inform regularly about the number and location of confirmed cases of the new virus. This later evolved in a website[ii] with hourly updates of suspected and confirmed cases as well as number of deaths and recoveries, which was step by step expanded. It’s content is also distributed through a range of channels including China’s major social media WeChat.

f.       All the while the acting government of the Republic of China, which controls the entire province of Taiwan and two tiny islands of Fujian province showed a first response: it banned the export of face masks to China, sparking outrage in the rest of the country – opposite Japan, which not only sent large volumes of medical supply, but even added historical references in poetic Chinese to Japanese-Chinese ties durin the Tang dynasty, which was highly praised by many Chinese.

Stage 2: the information war begins

4.      The numbers of infections kept rising, though mostly contained in Hubei province. Most people now on holidays, nothing to do, not able to go outside without worrying, rumors stared growing, with Western media jumping up and down fanning the flames

a.      The numbers of infected were incorrect according to a British study – debunked: the published numbers were of people confirmed with the virus, or under investigation, the British study calculated a potential number of infections under a range of assumptions without much facts to underpin them

b.      The Chinese authorities were playing the risk down and censoring [iii] - contradicted by the same media warning of massive economic costs because of an excessive response [iv] - So if China responds fiercely, it proves the threat is even bigger than it is; if China doesn’t respond fiercely, it downplays the risk.

c.      The virus came from a Chinese laboratory for biological warfare – highly unlikely, as all sensitive production facilities, especially arms, especially internationally banned illegal production facilities are placed very far from any large agglomerations, if they even exist. This rumor may have been a response to a rumor saying the virus started just about 14 days after the Wuhan Military Olympics, where among others several hundred members of the US military visited, so they may have brought the virus as a biological weapon from the US – which I find just as unlikely, as the US, if they would go to such an abominable and risky low, would certainly target a more relevant city than Wuhan, such as Beijing or Hongkong.

d.      Western media started claiming: some people warning about the virus were shut up and arrested or punished by the government in order to “hide” the virus – debunked: There was a doctor Li Wenjun who warned publicly about “7 confirmed cases of SARS” at a market in Wuhan, before tests of the – it turns out new – virus had been finished and report to WHO was filed. He apologized after the warning has “gone viral” and reached a point where he was reprimanded for spreading false rumors.

the original police warning is published but wrongly or not at all translated by many Western media [v])

e.      Or simply ridiculing Chinese [vi] trying to minimize their personal risks

5.      In a next, dramatic escalation the Chinese government decided to end the “business as usual governance of the country” and replace it by a “alarm mode” where the Communist Party takes over the reigns and leads directly through the party chain of command. The head of this emergency leadership was Xi Jinping personally, and after announcing to take the helm, Xi didn’t waste any time for photo sessions or PR stunts. Under this new, temporary regime, the responses include

a.      Building two hospitals with 1000 beds each to isolate patients and give them treatment in Wuhan – two entire buildings in 10 days! With live video to watch![vii] (comment by China-expert Fionn Wright[viii])

b.      Mandating all people all across China wear face masks when going outside

c.      Extending public holidays and strongly recommending home office to avoid people mixing in large masses

d.      Shutting down traffic from and to several districts across Hubei, not just Wuhan

e.      Investigating any alleged wrongdoing by the Wuhan government while taking back control of the narrative to reign in potential panic in society and to “better strengthen confidence, warm people's hearts, and gather people's hearts”[ix]

f.       Having hundreds of volunteer medical workers brought to Wuhan to alleviate the local teams, including some international experts to help research details about the virus and a possible cure

g.      After meeting with Xi Jinping, the WHO releases a statement among other things saying: “We appreciate the seriousness with which China is taking this outbreak, especially the commitment from top leadership, and the transparency they have demonstrated”[x]

h.      Conduct first clinical trials with medication that might have an effect

i.        Channel and coordinate the logistics of thousands or ten thousands of voluntary donators, NGO, companies, social organizations who were organizing medical goods from abroad

j.        Building a direct channel within China’s main social media platform WeChat, where people can call to the central government immediately, if they are refused medical treatment with a suspected case of the new virus at any hospital.

6.      While the impressive measures of China ramped up, Western media under “guidance” from the White house become fiercer in their attempt not to let this event turn out to shine a positive light on China

a.      A Taiwan newspaper published a picture of infection numbers 10 times higher than official, with a picture claiming “an accidental revealing of the truth”[xi] - Tencent claims it is a blatant photoshop fake picture in which the numbers were changed, according to CEO of China Financial, Howard Makler[xii]. I find Makler's version much more likely.

b.      The quality of Chinese rapidly-built hospitals were put in question. Also the risk of getting infected at hospitals during quaratine was played up a lot – partially true: these hospitals built in two weeks won’t be lasting quality medical facilities and indeed there is a risk of getting infected if falsely quarantined, but compare it to what Germany has managed to prepare at the Frankfurt airport to quarantine German expats evacuated from Wuhan[xiii]:

As Mr. Gu Yifei of Shanghai Changzheng Hospital informed me, the picture on the left was actually a hospital built in just 3 days[xiv]

c.      Some media started to debate the whereabouts of Xi Jinping, alleging there might be some evil scheme behind it.[xv] - Random rumor mongering: As announced, he is personally coordinating an extraordinary response organization, so personally I find it very sympathetic that in extraordinary times the focus is shifted from him being leader to what is happening on the ground in Chinese media. Of course, thereby Xi is also less exposed to large numbers of people, including journalists, which is a good side effect

d.      The Dr. Li whose message about SARS had become nationally known was now stylized to be a “hero” and a “whistleblower” – note: a whistleblower is someone who exposes an illegal activity within an organization against the will of that organization. The virus in Wuhan is hardly an illegal activity by anyone, nor was his rumor about “SARS having broken out” correct at any point in time.

e.      Some media went as far as to claim: “lives could have been saved by freedom of speech”, which is not only a grotesque twisting of facts, but frankly offensive to all those who are fighting for every life. – Suffice to mention the counternarrative: H1N1 bird flue spread in the US under full freedom of speech and killed half a million people worldwide, according to some estimations

f.       Meanwhile reports of more and more racist incidents against Chinese in the US and other places came up[xvi] , plus a general phenomenon of otherwise rational people trying to avoid Asian people (an ugly example from Thomas Upton who has a Chinese wife and lives in the UK[xvii] ) – despite the fact that the US has just evacuated a large number of Americans from China, mostly Caucasians and US business travelers and tourists in China are likely the first to run to the US in the current situation.

Stage 3: China wins the battle but the war has just begun

7.      The pinnacle of the drama came with a double blow: Dr. Li himself died from the virus – one of the few victims without previous health condition and not of old age – and the national TV show to the final evening of the Spring Festival, the Lantern Festival Show, was completely changed and only focused on the virus situation – the first time in several decades history of this show, which is after the show for the first evening of Chinese New Year the second most watched TV show of CCTV, and perhaps worldwide, with close to a billion viewers. What did these two events change:

a.      Dr. Li had been played up in the West to a completely excessive level of admiration, the lone soldier against the evil empire, and surely not few were hoping, his name would get banned in China, he could become a symbol for the resistance against the Communist Party, a beacon for the fight for “freedom of speech” perhaps linking hands with the protesters in Hongkong – some in the West are still not aware, that emotional support for the HK protests in mainland China is far below the 1% line, especially when their leaders put hatred before brains (HK protest leader Joshua Wong wants the president of WHO to resign because he praised China’s efforts[xix];

HK protest spokesperson Joey Siu can’t even condemn protesters beating up a person for having a different opinion (especially after 22:20 minutes) [xx]) or simply for their violence and contradictions and selling out of their country[xviii]

b.      Indeed, when he died, the Western media were having a field day, and the candle was well prepared as a symbol to lead the “candle revolution”. But the response in China was completely opposite: the main tracker website, where hourly updates of numbers of infected, suspected, deceased, and healed people are published was changed to black and white in commemoration of Dr. Li. Visitors could click on a candle symbol to thank Dr. Li for his efforts. His death wasn’t censored but all-over Chinese news. He even was very prominently featured in the exceptional TV show which happened just the next evening. The whole show can be watched here, but only in Chinese[xxi]

c.      The Lantern Festival TV show started with a regular song about Tangyuan, a sweet dish traditionally eaten on this day. Then an announcement that these are special times, as announced before, there would be no audience, we all need to stand together, and best wishes to all – nothing too conspicuous until this point. The the song "peoples of China" (中华民族) starts, a masterpiece choreography in itself

Roughly in the middle of the song, all dancers disappear behind a screen moving up from the ground, and when the screen is lowered again, the ancient terra cotta warriors representing the pride of 5000 year old China, are replaced with modern people dressed in plain white, with only the old charriot remaining, as it looks in today's museums in China. The message clear: it is still us, we are still China, we are heroes and can achieve anything when we stand united. The white of course the reference to the doctors, who are the front line warriors in the war against the virus.

And then the real impact came, when fun, entertaining, sometimes a bit squirmy top famous anchorman Ren Luyu started to say the most formal line of Communist Party announcements “the Communist Party Central Leadership with Xi Jinping at its core” has taken the lead to fight the virus, and “Xi Jinping has said:”… From this moment it was clear, this show will be an official announcement of the central government, not an entertainment show of the China Central Television CCTV media corporation.

d.      The show was and is a masterpiece of propaganda, to rally the strength of society and bring Chinese together. From the moment the show began, without a single person in the audience, without a single clapping of applause for any production, from the first second it was clear: this show is different! Instead of jokes, music and dances to celebrate Chinese culture, customs, diversity, and history, all songs were either old songs about Chinese standing together in times of need, or had lyrics related to fighting the virus – despite the still diverse styles from Soviet, to ethnic, to soft pop, to hip hop, to all the types of music usually featured in such shows.

Instead of jokes and sketches, the anchors and some of the most famous Chinese actors were reading out letters of volunteers, either announcing their willingness to go to Wuhan, or writing their parents about their determination and worries. Videos of the building of hospitals, of exhausted medical staff, interviews with doctors, an interview with a happy child whose parents had been healed. It heavily appealed to both brain and heart, emotions and thinking, for everyone to be patient, confident, do one’s part, and refrain from spreading fake news in dangerous times.

e.      I’m personally confident, the show did work to turn the mood and boost morale of Chinese.

8.      After the Lantern Festival Show the best possible thing for the Chinese government happened: the number of new infections (both suspected and confirmed) had gone down very noticeably compared to the day before, and for the third time within four days. While the number of total infections is still rising, the trend is positive. Authorities stress for people to stay vigilant, but the mood is shifting to positive. You’d think such a trend shift would be a celebration to the world, making big headlines globally? Well – definitely not. The focus is now on individual people [xxii], on weak narratives, and in many international media, simply not in China all of a sudden.

9.      As I expected, or feared, the Western response to the information war defeat came instantly: “Mike Pompeo warns governors of Chinese infiltration” and “China's Communist Party has infiltrated various levels of America's infrastructure and is working to destroy the values of the United States”[xxiii]. Of course Fox News is known for inflammatory language, but it is still very relevant, because not only is it the news channel which guides the US president, it is also the channel watched by many Americans who are already most prone to racist acts. And Pompeo basically alleged all Chinese are potential allies of the Communist Party (I actually agree in that I think most Chinese indeed do support their political leadership more or less), and are part of an evil scheme to hurt the US (I totally disagree because China would have much more economic benefit from a thriving US instead of the current looming crisis where the National Treasury keeps pumping money into stock markets to prevent an actual crisis) The language is interestingly similar to parts of the language used in the Lantern Festival Show in China (we must stand together, we all must be vigilant, the danger could be anywhere) except in China the enemy is an unknown virus threatening the whole world, in the US it is Chinese communities which they are trying to fight.

Conclusions

I'm early with this overview and with my predictions, as the virus is still spreading, the crisis is still going on, and nobody knows what twists and turns the information war will take next. Here are some of my take-aways and predictions:

1. No matter how the truth lies or how the WHO comments, Western media will stick to a narrative of a intransparent, threatening, lying China which was responsible for making the crisis worse than necessary
2. China experts as well as health experts will mostly agree that China has acted in very impressive manner and done everything possible to contain the virus as much as possible and reference to this crisis as the yardstick for any future government who has to respond to a health threat
3. The select group of Western countries which Western media call "the international community" will stick to the narrative of their media, while Russia and China will stick to the WHO and Chinese version (exception: Israel which has very publicly said to "stand at the side of China")
4. India, Africa, and most other developing nations will keep a low profile, but among the people a vast majority will admire China for its ability to respond so quickly and fiercely to a crisis
5. The Western hubris will prevent even rational Western analysts from realizing how little the West still represents the opinion of the world's population
6. Racism against Chinese especially in the US will increase dramatically over the next months during the election campaign for US president

With the last point, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any politician in the US being able to make serious attempts to tone down against the Chinese. Democracy in the Ancient Greek sense shows its dangerous head: rule of the demagogues.

[i] https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared-cavolo

[ii] https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2

[iii] https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-04-20/h_96c4b1522988df88ec2141426c2863b5

[iv] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-travel-ban/index.html

[v] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7981599/Doctor-warned-coronavirus-told-police-refuse-repent-punished.html#i-94caa08fb9bbac0f

[vi] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7942159/Nervous-Chinese-travellers-pictured-wearing-face-masks-plastic-bottles.html

[vii] https://m.yangshipin.cn/static/2020/c0126.html 

[viii] https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6628166374747324416/

[ix] https://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2020-02/03/c_1125527334.htm

[x] https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/28-01-2020-who-china-leaders-discuss-next-steps-in-battle-against-coronavirus-outbreak

[xi] https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

[xii] https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6631223184656072704/

[xiii] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7981599/Doctor-warned-coronavirus-told-police-refuse-repent-punished.html

[xiv] https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6632161018380419072/

[xv] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/asia/xi-jinping-china-wuhan-virus-intl-hnk/index.html

[xvi] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CfZtfYcOeg&feature=youtu.be

[xvii] https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6629139581159653377

[xviii] https://youtu.be/Z1aXIRar0Ws

[xix] https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/02/09/opinion/columnists/clueless-critics-play-politics-vs-global-health-who/681841/

[xx] https://m.weibo.cn/status/4437832909037361

[xxi] https://live.iqiyi.com/s/19rs6klv2f.html?vfm=m_144_bdal

[xxii] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/09/asia/wuhan-citizen-journalist-intl-hnk/index.html

[xxiii] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pompeo-warns-governors-of-china-infiltration