The Wickedness of COVID-19

Today we’re going to observe our current state, of global pandemic (COVID-19), through a new lens. Yesterday I adopted a philosophical lens, and today, we’re going to apply some systems-thinking. We’re going to move from the concrete reality of controls, complex solutions, and calculated responses to the abstract nature of tackling “wicked problems”.  

The Philosophical Flux 

We’re all confronted with a challenge: how to process uncertainty 

We’re all daunted by a prospect: how to handle fear in the face of the unknowns 

In these times, we are forced to be shortsighted. Uncertainty prevents us from large-scale actions; there is no foreseeable end or treatment, there is a short foresight horizon that leads to no bound on the horizon of consequence of action (1). Uncertainty also prevents us from aligning our actions to respond to future consequence (game theory; 1, 2, 3); as a result, we are unable to design effective interventions, as we do not understand the domino effect.  

Our state of flux is heightened as the number of COVID-19 cases with no known transmission source increases daily in NSW (4). To navigate these unknowns, we need to consult existing frameworks to gain a better understanding of where we are, and to align our expectations with the emergent practices we are seeing. I don’t want to discredit our emotional and physiological responses during this time, but merely, to provide a means of rationalising and assessing behaviours and our societal and political response. 

Is COVID-19 a “wicked problem” 

First, we need to address whether COVID-19 can be classified as a “wicked problem”. The wickedness described by Rittel and Webber (5) speaks to a certain breed of complexity that can be identified across societal problems. The traits of wickedness are described as a feeling that a problem is unsolvable, impossible, or, possible but with consequence, generating a domino-effect of other problems (1). 

According to our good friend Wikipedia, classic examples of a “wicked problem” include: global climate change, natural hazards, healthcare, AIDS epidemic, pandemic influenza (*cough, COVID-19*), international drug trafficking, nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, waste and social injustice. 

In the examples above, economic, environmental and political issues are interwoven. The significant causal elements of wickedness are found within a “seamless web” structure of associations, where interconnectedness is evident (1). The dynamism in this web enables qualitative changes to travel and transform the entire wicked system. Often those who act upon this wicked system are embedded in it; there is an inbuilt bias, as this embedding becomes a lens through which they see the web as whole.  

Image Source: The North American Association for Environmental Education

I am not the first, and am sure I will not be the last, to classify and critique a pandemic as a “wicked problem”. A UK study from 2015 sought to understand how key “wicked problems” can pervade the health security sector from a macro-level policy position (6). For those in public policy, a pandemic is unstructured, relentless and cross-cutting in nature; all characteristics of a “wicked problem” (7).

The lack of structure in a “wicked system” emerges from high international demands, where there is no clear solution with domino-effect consequences, and is cross-cutting in nature as multiple stakeholders enter the game with complex political, medical, and economic views (6). Arguably we see familiar threads in global, multi-action responses to COVID-19.

'Pandemic influenza fits with the notion of a wicked problem given that they call for multi-level + multi-actor responses across territories requiring a high degree of resilience to deal with the contours of the disease (unstructured + cross-cutting)'(6). 

Characteristics and Challenges of Wickedness 

A key challenge in a wicked system is the intermittent and unexpected behaviour exhibited by those in the system. There can be ontological uncertainty and game changers. There can be an unlimited horizon and exponential statistics driving fear, violence, and unpredictable responses. The innovation pathways, therefore, become ever-changing. Treatment is not as simple as a cure. Entire industries and societal systems are being uprooted and our assumptions that we possess progress and medical security in our modern day digital-savvy, medically-advanced world are dismantled.  

A wicked system is one where the arenas of other adapting systems interact and compete over limited resources (1). A simple look at your supermarket shelves, or this video give evidence of disruption to our global supply and demand (from toilet rolls to essential groceries to guns). There is a lack of reason and sensibility in this crisis state.

What COVID-19 has revealed is the need for many businesses to test their business continuity plans; for many industries to assess their mitigation and control measures when it comes to crisis management; and for many governments to consider their policies and border security. Governance for a wicked-system is vulnerable to growth; the ever-evolving state means that controls may demand a global overview, while change can only be implemented locally. The system cannot be controlled or suppressed at scale where constant change and uncertainty are drivers; local manifestations of wickedness cannot be compared.

As a result, there are no generic responses, no one-size-fits-all solutions; we see this in the discrepencies between national control measures. Overtime though, we are beginning to see alignment and uptake of shared controls as solutions and strategies are tested and “best-practice” is gauged, assessed, and implemented. 

A key element of a wicked system is the deep historical dimension of the problem. Wicked systems are rarely said to repeat themselves, however, what we see with pandemic is new versions of the same wickedness; it is rare there will be another outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-1), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), but it is more likely there will be a new wave of an unforeseen and foreign agents. 

What we are witnessing is not merely generated by a virus; the initial conditions were present before the virus, the virus has merely transformed these conditions. What may have been hidden, embedded, on the cusp; is now revealed, detached, triggered. Across the media, we see the rise in societal issues and fears of recession.

Yet, on the flip-side, we are also witnessing: 

• a rise empathy; in practiced compassion for the vulnerable 
• a rise in generosity; in those who give to the poor and needy, or the neighbour without toilet paper, etc. 
• a rise in collaboration; as workplaces combat new working arrangements with digital solutions and alternatives 
• a rise in bravery; for those on the frontline (GPs, nurses, scientists) tackling the day-to-day management 
• a rise in political leadership and adaptive policy-making; in varying degrees, as decisions are made in front of a scared, naked public eye. 

Boundaries of Wickedness 

It is worth noting how COVID-19 slightly diverges from traditional definitions of a “wicked problem”. First-generation system approaches to wickedness contain assumptions, with Rittel and Webber's ten characteristics of a "wicked problem" developed further by Conklin who mapped wickedness beyond planning and policy. As with any body of knowledge, our understanding evolves. What we are witnessing in the wave of COVID-19 is rapid, evolving, adaptive, emergent practice.

It is common for “wicked problems” to lack a stopping rule and a starting rule. At present, we can investigate and speculate the origins of the COVID-19, but in turn this generates further uncertainty around the specifics of transfer and sources of contamination. While there are linkable and known causations in many cases, there are also unknowns. One look at the daily statistics on NSW Health will demonstrate this. Arguably, in the instance of COVID-19, there is a proposed starting rule; yet, what is lacking is the traceability of transmission. What COVID-19 has uncovered is the interconnectedness of our world today, especially where global supply chains and border security is concerned; here, the starting and stopping rules become blurry in terms of tracing impact.  

 Image Source: Marketers Touchpoint for Innovative Outcomes

In terms of problem-solving, a wicked problem is said to have no immediate or ultimate means of testing a solution. For those in the scientific realm, investigating potential cures to COVID-19, a vaccine development won’t happen overnight; it can take months to years for testing, further developing and regulating. The long, complex process involved a combination of public and private involvement and can last 10-15 years (8). Solutions cannot be implemented at the sacrifice of public safety.  During the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak, it took 20 months for a vaccine just to be ready for testing. Thus, while there is no immediate or ultimate means of testing right now, there may be in the future. 

The key takeaway here is that there is no simple, quick-fix, bandaid solutions for a “wicked problem”. The consequence of early vaccine application without adequate testing is evidenced by what happened when a dengue vaccine was made available in the Philippines. In that instance, there was criminal charges, national panic, with a domino effect of a measles outbreak, killing more than 355 people.  

Pandemics, case in point, are convoluted in their consequence chains.

There are nuances as to why we might or might not classify COVID-19 as a “wicked problem”. What we see is the vulnerability of some of our existing societal systems at the brunt of a new player. Arguably then, the wickedness is not the virus itself, but rather, what we are witnessing is the exposure and enhancement of inherent and embedded wickedness. Preexisting "wicked problems" are put under pressure; most pressing are how the most vulnerable are made more vulnerable. 

To consider the boundaries of a “wicked problem”, we can see how COVID-19 sits on the following Spectrum of Overwhelming Systems (SOS) diagram by virtue of impact to entire societies and ecosystems. The authors of this framework identify the wickedness of a system and problem to occupy a specific part of the SOS where qualities of complexity and complicatedness are mixed (1). These qualities represent to principal ways a system is organised. Note that as the scope of this article is not to differentiate system domains, if this sparks your curiosity I would recommend consulting the Cynefin Framework to further your understanding on simple, complicated, complex and chaotic systems.

Innovation and Wickedness 

The opportunity to underline here is that a wicked system is an arena for innovation.

Where a complex system is generated by self-organisation, and a complicated system is generated by assembly and development; a wicked system generates a need for change (1). There is almost a plea for open-ended innovation and creative destruction. For new ideas and ways of operating.  

In the face of COVID-19, we witness the wickedness of disease threats and their transcendence of systems. Solutions within a political system may involve trade-offs and/or create domino-effects in other parts of the system, e.g. the economic system. Health security and pandemic prevention may require trade-offs, flexibility, resource sharing and collaboration in the political arena to ensure policy success (9). The plea for creative destruction is met with contradictory data and paradox; where every step forward may be a step backward. 

To tackle wickedness, then, transdisciplinary strategies and partnerships must be devised, alternative responses proposed, and “constructive ambiguity” accepted (10). The question is where in a wicked system innovation is most effective; is it scientific innovation we require, or change-making and policy-shaping innovation in the political sphere, or otherwise. 

Can I encourage those of you who are currently in self-isolation,

lockdown, or exercising social-distancing

to consider tackling the “wicked problem” that is COVID-19

with creativity, curiosity and transdiciplinary thinking?

Consider how you may be a game-changer, inspiring creative destruction and prevention of past, present and future epidemiological issues. If you’re wondering how to respond, consider how you can play a part in flattening the curve to keep the infection of COVID-19 under the threshold of our medical service capacity. 

Please look after yourself and those around you,

especially the vulnerable and lonely.  

Note: In this article refer to COVID-19, as the term “coronavirus” applies to a family of viruses, while COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 is specific to our current pandemic and is the seventh coronavirus to infect humans (Anderson, Rambaut & et al. 2020).   

Acknowledgement: I would like to recognise Andersson and Tornberg for their work in the "wicked problem” space. In this article, I have merely sought to apply a lot of the research and theoretical grunt work that they have done in this space to our current COVID-19 crisis.

References:

1.  Andersson, C. & Tornberg, P. 2018, Wickedness and the anatomy of complexity, Futures, 95, pp.118-138.
2. Gintis, H. 2000, Game theory evolving, University Press, Princeton 
3. Ostrom, E. 1990. Governing the commons, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
4. Graham, B. 2020. Why Sydney is being so badly hit by the coronavirus, News.com.au, 19 March 2020
5. Rittel, H. & Webber, M. 1973, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sciences, 4, pp. 155-169
6. Connolly, J. 2015, The "wicked problems" of governing UK health security disaster prevention: The case of pandemic influenza, Disaster Prevention and Management,Vol. 24 No. 3, pp. 369-382.
7. Weber, E.P. and Khademian, A.M. (2008), “Wicked problems, knowledge challenges, and collaborative capacity builders in network settings”, Public Administration Review , Vol. 68 No. 2, pp. 334-349.
8. 2018, Vaccine development and testing and regulation, History of Vaccines
9. Durant, R.F. and Legge, J. (2006), “‘Wicked problems,’ public policy, and administrative theory: lessons from the GM food regulatory arena”, Administration & Society , Vol. 38 No. 3, pp. 309-334.
10. Smith, R. 2009, Richard Smith on countering the “wicked problem” of the chronic disease pandemic, BMJ Opinion

WATCH: Annie Maxwell – Wicked problems: The role of imagination and creativity