Wi-Fi and Cellular. BFFs or Frenemies?
I’m 64 years old, so I spent a large chunk of my life without a smartphone in my pocket.
But, even an old geezer like myself can hardly remember what it was like not being able to whip out my phone just about anywhere and Google for critical data (or meaningless trivia). Fast forward to today, and if, for any reason, I’m cut off from the Web, I get anxious and nervous (don’t judge me, please).
However, the experience we have while in the street, versus the experience at home or in the office, is still very different. When I’m out walking (which I do a lot), I still have to ration my data intake. For example, I don’t stream Spotify, I play my previously downloaded, offline music. So … I’m getting a lesser experience than I do at home. And why is that? It’s not a technological limitation … I can download oodles of data at LTE speed. But, of course, I don’t, because cellular data is still expensive (although it has come down in price, and continues to do so).
So … will there be a convergence? Will cellular companies continue to invest in their infrastructure, and will their technology evolve to the point where it is price competitive to Wi-Fi? Or will Wi-Fi continue to expand in, and out from, dense urban areas and slowly eat cellular’s lunch?
According to Wi-Fi guru Claus Hetting (CEO & Chairman at Wi-Fi NOW):
“Wi-Fi is the stuff that is enabling the Internet economy. It's that simple.”
Claus predicts that the cellular industry is probably doomed. He states “There is still some risk that mobile carriers will be Uberized but actually, it's mostly a case of death by a thousand cuts.”
You can read his full hypothesis in his excellent post The cellular industry is doomed. Here's why.
I tend to agree with Claus, but have learned over the years that things that seem inevitable don’t always happen (remember TQM taking over the world?). The cellular companies are well entrenched, and in many cases, have a big piece of the Wi-Fi infrastructure. Shaw Communications buying Wind Mobile is a Canadian example of a large communications company playing both sides. They originally forsook their original purchase of spectrum, and went exclusively for the Wi-Fi play. They then hedged their bet by buying WIND.
I find this to be a fascinating topic, so much so that we are going to discuss it in far more detail on April 12, Noon EST on our monthly xiRADIO broadcast. Our panelists (more to come) will include:
Claus Hetting, CEO, Wi-Fi Now, Denmark
Anthony Behan, IBM, Ireland
Martin Morgan, VP, Openet, Ireland
Register Here for xiRADIO April 12:
https://www.xiboss.com/xiboss-radio-mar-2016
Hi Asghar.... you could be right... the end might come sooner!
Hey Enda ... great hearing from you.
Hi Chris ... thanks for your comments. I suspect that you're right. There will probably be (at least in the mid-term) a pathway through the middle.
Strategic Management Consultant (Wi-Fi), Chairman NED, Board Advisor
9 年In my view its not either / or for Cellular and WiFi, it's more coexistence and convergence. There simply isn't enough radio spectrum or high speed backhaul for this to remain separate. Users only care which they use if there is a price, speed, coverage or security issue. The WBA's Next Generation Wi-Fi Hotspot programme is designed to allow cellular and non-cellular uses to seamlessly and securely access when roaming - thus optimising the best available networks out there - addressing these concerns.
Consulting Partner at EY - leading the Telecoms, Media and Technology (TMT) practice for the Irish market
9 年Totally agree Tony - Small cell technology advances in general combined with flawed commercial cellular models that are aimed at protecting cash cow businesses will change the market dramatically.