Why your TAM is wrong
Stop lying about your market size. (Yes, I'm talking to you)
The hard truth:
99% of TAM slides are fantasy.
Here's why:
1. The Top-Down Trap:
"Global healthcare is $8T"
"EdTech is $250B"
"FinTech is $4.7T" = Meaningless numbers
Reality: Your actual market is tiny.
2. What VCs Actually Think:
- Your TAM slide = Skip
- Your SAM numbers = Fiction
- Your SOM dreams = Eyeroll
3. The Real Way = Bottom-up only
Current price x Realistic customers x Actual usage = Real market size
4. Signs Your TAM is Wrong:
- Includes China/India markets
- Uses "if we just get 1%..."
- Cites Gartner/McKinsey
- Shows trillion-dollar numbers
The Truth:
Small TAM + High penetration > Huge TAM + No penetration
Drop a line if you're ready to get real about your market size!
#Startups #VentureCapital #TAM
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OpenToWork: AI Polymath | SDR | Data Quality | CRM & Market Intelligence Strategist | Biohacker & Cognitive Analytics | Author | Hyper-Learner | Open to Roles in Innovation, Sales Optimization, Researcher Globally
2 个月I spent months reading all corporate structures in Sweden, and also their international entities. Account by account. There are approx. 1000 HQs with 400+ employees in Sweden. A SDR/marketer can cover that in 2-3 months if the offering is B2B HQ solution. This is valid for all small/medium markets, and the numbers, when filtered, become even smaller if the HQ covers EMEA and similar scenarios. This means that many sprays and prays, wasting 80% of their time, and money and giving the wrong impression in VC-rounds. Going down in size yields another 1800ish, because many are in corporate structures.
International Digital Finance Consultant | FinTech Strategist | Empowering Youth in Business & Committed to Changing Education!
3 个月I couldn't agree more. I would add that this is a valid point for any new product proposal.
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3 个月Your article really hits the nail on the head! Thanks for sharing.
Venture Capital & Strategic Investment | AI Practitioner, Biotech, Oncology Expert | Business Analyst - Life Sciences & Healthcare Innovations | Immunotherapy Advocate | Art & Yoga Enthusiast
3 个月Burak Buyukdemir, thanks for your valuable insights!