Why Your Green Projects Might Be Rotten on the Inside: The Optimism Bias in Project Management ??

Have you ever led a project that was always ‘on track’—right until it wasn’t? You know the type: all the dashboards are green, the status reports are gleaming ?, but somehow the project crashes and burns spectacularly at the last mile ??. Well, you might be dealing with a classic case of optimism bias and, dare I say, a watermelon project.

What Is Optimism Bias? ??

Let’s face it, humans are inherently optimistic. It’s why we believe we’ll win the lottery ?? or why we think we can eat one more slice of pizza ?? without consequences. In project management, this tendency shows up as optimism bias: the belief that our projects will go smoothly, even when experience, data, and common sense suggest otherwise.

Optimism bias leads us to underestimate risks, downplay potential delays, and believe that everything will turn out just fine. Why? Because it feels good. But here’s the kicker: optimism bias creates watermelon projects—those projects that look green on the outside (hello, status reports!) but are hiding a festering red core of issues beneath the surface ??.

The Watermelon Project Phenomenon ??

If you’ve never heard of a watermelon project, let me paint you a picture. Your project is two months behind schedule ??, the team is working overtime ?, morale is low ??, and the budget is threatening to burst ??. But guess what? All your stakeholders see is a shiny green report saying, “Everything’s fine, we’re on track!” ??. It’s as if the team collectively agreed, “Let’s just keep this disaster under wraps for as long as possible.”

I once saw a project where every meeting started with, “We’re about 80% done.” Funny thing, this 80% mark was consistent for months. Turns out, the team had been struggling with core technical issues for weeks, but they were so deep in optimism bias that they kept believing they’d somehow solve it tomorrow. Tomorrow never came, but the watermelon kept getting greener on paper ????.

Why Does This Happen? ??

Blame it on optimism bias, sure, but there’s more at play. Project managers and teams are often pressured to report good news ??. It’s easier to say “We’re doing fine!” than to face the uncomfortable truth. There’s also the corporate culture factor: if your organization rewards you for bringing good news ?? but frowns upon transparency ??, what do you think you’ll deliver? That’s right, shiny green dashboards, and a watermelon the size of a freight train ??.

In one large IT implementation I worked on, we all knew the project was teetering on the edge ??, but the pressure from upper management to deliver good news meant everyone painted on smiles ?? and kept hitting ‘green’ in the status reports. It wasn’t until the client started asking, “Hey, why is nothing actually working?” that we realized we’d built ourselves a perfect watermelon ??.

The Cost of Optimism Bias and Watermelon Projects ??

Here’s the real kicker: optimism bias is expensive. Delays, budget overruns, and failed project deliverables are just the beginning. What’s worse, watermelon projects breed a culture of mistrust ??. When stakeholders discover that the project was far from green, credibility goes out the window ??, and the recovery process becomes longer and more painful ??.

Remember that massive infrastructure project that was supposed to revolutionize a city’s public transport system ??? It looked amazing on the outside, with all the right milestones being hit (or so we thought). Fast forward a few years, and the public was left asking, “Why does this thing not work?” ??♂? Answer: watermelon.

How to Avoid Watermelon Projects ??

So, what can we do about it? Here’s the not-so-optimistic truth: optimism bias will always exist. But we can manage it.

1. Encourage Honest Conversations ???: If your team feels they can’t raise red flags ??, guess what? They won’t. Create a culture where it’s safe to report problems early. You’d rather hear about that technical glitch today than face an “oops” moment three months from now ??.

2. Trust the Data, Not Your Gut ??: Your gut might tell you the project is going well. The data, however, might scream otherwise. Use metrics, tools, and simulations (Monte Carlo anyone?) to check your assumptions. If the project looks too green to be true, it probably is. ??

3. Celebrate Problem-Solving, Not Perfection ??: Reward transparency over a false sense of progress. Instead of asking, “Is everything green?” ask, “What are the potential risks, and how can we solve them now?”

I once consulted on a project where the team proactively shared their challenges weekly. The project wasn’t smooth, but we always knew exactly where the issues were, and we could take action early ??. No watermelon in sight—just a healthy, albeit imperfect, project that delivered ??.

Final Thoughts ??

A big thank you to Marisa Silva, the Lucky PM who introduced me to the concept of the watermelon project...it's one of those stories that really sticks with you ??

In project management, optimism isn’t bad—unless it blinds you to reality. The next time you see a project that’s too green, ask yourself: is this really going well, or am I looking at a watermelon? ??

So, what about you? Are you managing a project or a watermelon? Let’s hear your stories in the comments—because we’ve all been there, whether we admit it or not ??.