Should you be more aggressive with sales & services during a bear market?

Ad-Tech: Ruined, or perfect for this market?

Did you know more than 80% of the ad budget for television is still spent on static TV? This is a $75 Billion budget, so it's no joke. So... the world's largest companies are currently taking $60,000,000,000 each year and lighting it on fire in a dumpster of massive proportions? Yes. It seems so.

Well... Ok, mostly.

Why? Because, Don Draper was a TV character ...

"Bear markets are the authors of bull markets..."

So let's say WahlStores (you wish Marky Mark) had $2B (totally making this number up) to spend on TV each year - how are they deciding where specifically to invest it? With which vendors? On which networks, and in which regions?

They will utilize old school demographics, firmographics and lagging indicators from last year's stores, and government/private data, based mostly on surveys.

But is this smart? Sure, right?

Well... Maybe, but aren't there other, smarter choices? Couldn't we use some leading indicators? Some targeting? What about attribution metrics we can trust?

"Last quarter, we spent $100,000,000 in LA County and the same store numbers came out excellent..."

Very precise!

And yet, that $2,000,000,000 will go straight out and over to the same static network Sell-side brokers, billboard owners, and every other static ad-slot you might imagine, every year.

So, the tactic is really pay to play... or perhaps it could be called, spend to guess?

Meanwhile...

...there are ad-tech platforms out there which are not owned by Google or Facebook, that enable anyone to target their ideal audience personas securely.

Advertising to the specific user of the TV, improving rate of precision by an almost infinite degree.

How? Well, as most Americans now use smart TVs (or Connected CTVs) and even watch regular TV channels on these TVs, these new platforms are able to easily understand and track who you are based on your log-in, your preferences, and behavior. Then they enable buyers of ads, like WahlStores from our example above, to purchase short spots, aiming at capturing your attention efficiently, only ad spots, only at the very time, on the very TV where the very persona to which they want to advertise to is currently watching!

65, just retired, ready for vacation?

You'll get commercials from Carnival Cruises, Travelocity, and some local services to help you along in getting ready for that well earned trip!

25, new mom, haven't slept in a week, and need diapers?

Instacart will let you know that they've got those and can deliver them to your door... like now!

So, can you sniff out that I am an Advertising bull?

Build and sell for a market that can't afford to live without you...

Maybe so. I know that there are some folks who really, really hate the ad economy. But I would ask to those people, what could be more decentralized and valuable to people, than a model which provides unlimited and useful information that was recently only accessible in courses at Graduate schools... For FREE?

That's right. You can go on line and learn how quantitative and probabilistic analysis work for free. You can learn how to build a business, how to program, how to become a professional anything... All right there on your cell phone. And for the most part? Free (with some periodic interruptions - ads... At least they should resonate with you!).

No, you don't get paid part of that advertising transaction in currency. But you sure do get paid, no doubt about it.

Ignoring the ethics of the ad economy (maybe in the next article)... Let's revisit WahlStores and conduct a thought experiment.

During a staglationary recession, when margins are being squeezed by higher prices, higher wages, and lower demand all at once... Can WahlStores afford to spend that $2,000,000,000 on less-than-effective advertising? Can they just do the same thing they did last year?

Unlikely.

Today is literally the best day to get bullish on ad-tech. In fact, its probably the best day to get bullish on any great technology. As long as that technology helps businesses to be more targeted, more expedient, effective, etc... A great business developer will make the sale of that technology into those businesses more easily than they ever could during a bull-run when WahlStores and the like, hardly noticed the spaghetti dripping down their beautiful plaster walls.

Ad-Tech? Any good Tech?

It's time to get aggressive. Build and sell for a market that can't afford to live without you...