Why Would Russia Want Scottish Independence?

Firstly, let me say this article isn’t about the process of Scottish Independence and the dissolution of the union. It isn’t about the pros and cons of independence, or my own opinion on Scottish Independence. Russia interfered with the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum. With the possibility of a second Independence Referendum looming for Scotland, we should understand what motivated that interference.

The Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament Russia report - ‘Russian interference in British politics’, was supposed to finally establish if Russia had interfered in key British democratic process. Did Russia attempt to influence the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum?

The report was concise, only 55 pages in length. The Mueller report, officially titled ‘Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election’, is 448 pages long. The UK report was succinct, some may even say brief in comparison.

Downing Street was accused of trying to downplay the report. Indeed, it delayed the release of the report for nearly nine months. There is much speculation on why Downing Street and allegedly the Prime Minister himself, delayed the release of this report. The release of the report had been cleared for publication by intelligence and security agencies, but it could not be published without government approval. To date, no explanation has been offered by the government as to why the ISC report was delayed for so long.

There were several key areas in the report that inferred there had been Russian interference in the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum. Firstly, the UK government had failed to investigate evidence of Russian interference in UK democratic processes. The inquiry did not seek to assess the impact of Russia’s alleged attempts to influence democratic process in the UK. It described that as something that would be, ‘difficult, if not impossible to do’. The report attempted to establish if a hostile state took deliberate action with the intention of trying to influence UK democratic process. The report clearly stated that the ISC was not able to do this because there had been no attempt historically, by the government or intelligence services, to investigate possible Russian interference.

What the report did state was that there was ‘credible open-source commentary’ suggesting Russia sought to influence the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum. In a partially redacted sentence, the report highlighted that commentators had described the interference in the Scottish Referendum as potentially, the first post-Soviet Russian interference in a western democratic process.

A study undertaken by Swansea University on the Scottish Referendum revealed Russian interference. Researchers from Swansea University established that thousands of bogus Twitter accounts were used to post more than 400,000 messages in the months leading up to the Scottish Referendum in 2014. The research found that posts from unaccounted social-media accounts, swell, every time a Scottish National Party (SNP) politician talked about a possible second referendum.

So why would Russia want Scottish Independence? Contrary to what most people believe, Scottish Independence is a national security issue.?The dissolution of the union between Scotland and England would be a far more complex and protracted process for the UK than the sluggish crawl we have seen to leave the European Union. The dissolution of the union would see an end, and winding up, of 313 years of shared politics, economics and history. Scottish Independence would see the UK having to take a step back from the international stage, to focus on interior matters which may take years to resolve.

The UK government’s post Brexit trade proposals to secure new trade agreements globally, would be significantly less appealing from a country that had lost a third of its landmass and almost one tenth of its population. A lack of political cohesion and confidence would portray a very different prospect to the International Trade Secretary’s current offering to post Brexit trade agreements. Many political experts believe Russia’s interest in Scottish independence is rooted in its desire to see a dismantled Great Britain and to cut the UK down in size.

Whilst restricted trade capabilities would be a significant affect to the UK economy, there are more pressing concerns that Scottish Independence presents a threat to national security. This is not some Tory inspired rhetoric, far from it, there are serious implications of a dissolution of the union that would benefit Russia and its allies. If successful, Scottish independence could unilaterally disarm the UK of its nuclear deterrent. The UK’s current nuclear deterrent, Trident, is located at Faslane on the Gareloch and Coulport, on Loch Long in Scotland. The SNP has already stated that it would be its intention, post dissolution of the union, to have that nuclear deterrent removed from Scotland. A recent SNP report has stated that the UK nuclear deterrent could be disarmed within two weeks and the entire nuclear deterrent transported out of Scotland within 2-4 years.??

The UK’s nuclear deterrent cannot simply be moved from one location to another. Other locations had previously been considered for the possible relocation of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, but had been found to be unsuitable. Barrow in Furness and the Barrow shipyard occupies a central place in the production of what is called Britain’s ‘nuclear deterrent’, producing the submarines which carry the missiles and nuclear warheads. However, Walney Channel at Barrow in Furness is thought to be too shallow for nuclear submarines. Devonport Dockyard in Plymouth is the main nuclear repair and refuelling facility for the Royal Navy. The port's size, the largest naval base in Western Europe, covers more than 650 acres and has 15 dry docks, 25 tidal berths and five basins. However, it couldn't recreate Coulport. Coulport possesses a huge floating dock, where warheads are placed inside the missiles, 3km from the small village of Garelochhead on one side and the small village of Ardentinny on the other. Any new warhead storage facility would need similar distances from population centres for loading and offloading warheads from missiles.

There are other UK locations that could be considered, but these are either non-starters or would require significant time, investment, environmental changes or even population displacements. There are certainly no quick fix solutions to the problem.

The UK’s nuclear deterrent, has ensured that at least one UK nuclear equipped submarine has been on continuous patrol at any given time, for more than 40 years. That is our nuclear deterrent. Should the UK nuclear deterrent be required to move from Scotland, post dissolution of the union, it could mean the armed submarine on continuous patrol may be recalled, and in effect, the UK continuous-at-sea nuclear deterrent would stop. The UK at that point would no longer be able to operate its nuclear deterrent and it is not clear how quickly the UK could restore continuous-at-sea deterrence.

Not only would this leave the UK without a functioning nuclear deterrent, but it would also lead to NATO losing a key nuclear ally and a weakness in the armour of the NATO union. To Russia, the UK failing to have a nuclear deterrent would be the humbling of a significant western power. It would also lead to a weakness in NATO, which Russia has seen for a long time as its greatest obstruction to its expansionist designs in Europe.

Russia’s interest in Scotland is also in part, derived from Scotland’s geographically strategic location. The waters off Scotland’s north-west coast form part of the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap, the principal choke point between Russia’s Northern Fleet in the Arctic and its strategic interests in the North Atlantic. In the Cold War era, the GIUK Gap was one of the most closely observed stretches of ocean on the planet. However, post the collapse of the Soviet Union, its international importance fell dramatically. There are now, sometimes weekly incursions by Russian naval vessels entering the Moray Firth, forcing the Royal Navy to deploy a presence to the region. Again and again, Russian aircraft have come close to Scottish air space, forcing RAF Typhoons to scramble from Lossiemouth to mark their presence and escort them away.

Russia’s foreign policy, fiercely protects Russia’s geopolitical independence. Whilst maintaining this, Russia aggressively pursues the destabilisation of Western nations, especially the United States and its allies. Russia measures its regime’s power by its ability to cause external disruption to its enemies and its ability to suppress internal dissent. Russia is fully aware that the UK is weaker if there is a dissolution of the union. The geopolitical independence of the UK is severely affected by dissolution of the union, with a significant loss of landmass and citizens. The UK’s ability to trade is affected with a lack of political cohesion and its ability to trade as a united union is weakened. The UK’s nuclear deterrent and intricate role as part of the NATO treaty is drastically affected, leading to a dangerous threat to national security. On top of all these factors, the complex and protracted process of the dissolution could lead to the UK losing its role as a major contributor on the international stage for many years, as it focuses on resolving interior matters.

I can’t imagine why Russia would want Scottish Independence?!