Why it is the worst time to be a farmer in India- Curious case of Potatoes

Globally, annual variability of crop yields and quality and safety of food production depends on the annual variability of climate, and more so in India where only 12% of the arable land is under irrigation. Rice and Wheat have been the dominant crops in India, where more than 80% of the acreage is under these two-grain crops for meeting objectives of food security (ICRI, 2015). However, potato despite being grown in approximately, one percent of the acreage, is considered a dominant cash crop for the farmers in India as it brings significant incomes in the rural areas.

However, a news incident last month piqued my interest. Heavy rains in potato producing areas in Karnataka(1300 hectares) destroyed by incessant production. This was on top of two successive years of droughts that farmers had seen in the production cycles in the previous two years.  Even with these events, the average potato production in 2018-19 is expected to be 2.5% higher than the last year and almost 13% higher than the last five years as per the latest report from the government of India.

A closer look reveals a story that is even more concerning for potato farmers than just vagaries of monsoon. Potato is grown across four major regions in India- South West, West, North and North-East. The production is sufficiently diversified if one were to consider the spatial variability of the Indian climate.

Source: World Potato Atlas

The cumulative acreage under Potato might be increasing annually, but, there is significant variation in regional production-driven regional and temporal variability of seasonal weather in India driven predominantly by monsoon rains. 

Research by Deepti et.al suggests that, but both the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall season within monsoons is increasing including fluctuations between periods of low rainfall and intense rainfall. This variability already has consequences for yields, water resource infrastructure and logistics of food supply within India.

The progress report of Monsoons in the year 2019 till the 30th of September highlights the same pattern of variability in India but more so in Northern and Southern Karnataka. The underlying data is released by the Indian Meteorological Department

It shows that in North Karnataka, only 5 weeks in the middle of the season received normal rainfall consistent with the 30 years average- the heuristic farmers are adapted to. However, the last 6 weeks before 30th Sep, have received intense rainfall leading to waterlogging of the field during the time of harvest. The consequence will be an almost complete loss of crop production and concerns around quality and safety of the potato production from those areas.,

The prices, however, remained normal because the production from other areas such as Eastern U.P, Bihar was around normal as they received normal rainfall for 12 weeks in the season leading to more than normal production. This pattern points to a broader problem of the long-term sustainability of farming as an income source for farmers not just in Potatoes but broader agriculture as Monsoon variability continues to increase with Climate Change

Instruments such as contract farming, better seeds, and more climate-smart farming could help mitigate these effects and increase their income levels in the long run which will be discussed in the next post.