Lessons from Widespread Adoption of General Purpose Technologies over 250+ Years

Effecting change on a large scale takes a lot of money and time.

For as far back as I can remember, I have been fascinated by how insights from history can provide us a with a useful perspective to understand the present and adapt for the future. These days, we hear often about the massive investment happening in artificial intelligence and some skepticism about whether all of this investment is, or will eventually be, worth it. In my opinion, it is immensely helpful to understand these investments in AI in a historical context. Each general purpose technology (GPT) that came before AI has required substantial financial investments, over sustained periods of time, and each fundamentally changed the way industries and societies operated on its way to achieving widespread adoption. AI, as a general-purpose technology (GPT), will likely follow the same historical pattern.

Here's a quick tour of a few general purpose technologies (GPTs) and the large-scale changes each of them necessitated on their way to economy-wide adoption over several decades:

1. The Steam Engine?

The steam engine powered the Industrial Revolution, radically transforming manufacturing, transportation, and even labor dynamics. Industries shifted from manual labor to mechanized production, requiring new skill sets, factory systems, and urbanization to support industrial growth. Widespread adoption took several decades, from the 1760s into the early 19th century. Entire economies pivoted from agrarian-based production to industrial manufacturing, altering societal structures and workforces on a massive scale.

2. Electrification

Electrification reshaped how industries operated, powered homes, and fundamentally altered daily life. Production lines became more efficient with electric motors, cities extended working hours with electric lighting, and communication systems like telegraphs and telephones emerged. Adoption spanned 40 to 60 years, extending into the mid-20th century. Industries and cities had to be rewired for electricity, replacing steam and manual power sources, while electrification also required new regulatory frameworks and public-private partnerships.

3. The Internal Combustion Engine & Automobiles

The automobile revolutionized transportation and urban planning, leading to the development of suburbs, highways, and a consumer culture centered around personal mobility. The rise of the automobile required not only manufacturing innovations but also a complete overhaul of infrastructure, from roads to fueling stations. Adoption took about 50 years, from the early 1900s through the post-WWII era. Cities and economies were redesigned around car travel, necessitating the development of extensive road networks, traffic management systems, and a global oil industry to support mass vehicle production and usage.

4. Computers and Information Technology?

Computers and IT began their rise in the 1950s, with their integration into business, government, and daily life becoming ubiquitous by the late 20th century. The digital revolution transformed how information was processed, stored, and communicated, leading to the automation of tasks, the birth of the software industry, and the globalization of knowledge work. Entire industries, from finance to manufacturing, had to adopt new digital tools, processes, and business models. The shift to an information-driven economy also required significant investments in education, workforce training, and the creation of global data and communication networks.

5. Artificial Intelligence?

AI adoption is still in its early stages, and expected to play out over the next few decades. AI is set to transform industries by automating complex tasks, enabling data-driven decision-making, and even redefining human-computer interaction. The current wave of investment is laying the groundwork for AI to become integral to everything from healthcare to finance to transportation. AI adoption demands a complete rethinking of how data is utilized, how decisions are made, and how machines and humans interact. This will require new regulatory frameworks, ethical guidelines, and infrastructure investments on a global scale.

TL;DR: The massive investment happening in AI is consistent with the historical pattern of sustained large-scale investments needed for general purpose technologies (GPTs). Each successive GPT has required more profound changes due to the growing complexity of technology, the expanding global economy, and the infrastructure necessary for deployment.