Why we are probably not running out of lithium

Lithium is an essential part of the rechargeable batteries used in smartphones, laptops, and EVs. Increasingly lithium also becomes an important part of the electricity grid, where energy storage systems support the integration of high shares of intermittent renewable sources of energy, such as solar and wind. With demand for lithium battery technology expected to dramatically increase in the coming years, it is important to steer away from some of the common misconceptions related to the availability of this critical metal.

Half-truth # 1: Lithium is rare, and the natural reserves will run dry.  

Lithium is not rare per definition. The terminology, “rare metal”, does not come from academia and there is no consensus on which element it pertains. Some countries, like Japan, consider lithium as rare, others, such as Europe, list lithium as a critical mineral.

General consensus is that lithium is the 33rd most common element in the Earth's crust (right behind cobalt and two places before lead). As a whole, the Earth's lithosphere contains approximately 17-20 parts per million (ppm) of lithium. The issue with it is that lithium is widely distributed in trace amounts in rocks, soils, and oceanic and sea waters and only a fraction of identified lithium resources is in theory economically feasible for extraction (lithium reserves). In practice, at least a quarter of the global lithium reserves cannot be developed in the near future due to the political (Bolivia) and technical (lack of infrastructure for energy and water access) issues.

In a nutshell, lithium reserves estimates are only a guide and the practical lithium reserves are influenced by the following factors:

1) continuous exploration

2) demand of technology/products (lithium batteries)

3) lithium prices 

4) economic policies and incentives

5) geopolitical situation at the reserve location

6) technological advancements in mining practices

7) regulatory oversight and permitting

8) and, increasingly, environmental implications of mining

Lithium industry has done well continuing the exploration of new lithium resources worldwide. Since 2001 the identified lithium resources have increased substantially worldwide from 12 million metric tons to about 86 million tons by 2020. At the same time the estimated global lithium reserves increased from 3.4 million metric tons in 2001 to 21 million metric tons in 2020.

This is a seven-fold increase in both, economically available reserves and identified resources.

In 2020 the global annual consumption of lithium was estimated to be 56,000 tons of lithium content (USGS).

Based on the annual lithium production of 56kt and with 21,000kt known lithium reserves, extraction at the current rate could continue for the next 375 years.

However, the EV market, that is the largest consumer of battery materials, is poised to grow rapidly thanks to the favorable economic policies and incentives in China, Europe, and North America. It is predicted that 140 million electric vehicles will be on the road worldwide by 2030. That is 140 million EV batteries that will need to be produced by 2030 (Sources: International Energy Agency, US Department of Energy).

Each EV battery consists of 30-40% of valuable cathode material by weight. And even if the lithium percentage in the lithium-ion battery accounts for only 7%, the total amount of lithium needed for 140 million vehicles equals 3,000kt of lithium content.

In this case the currently known natural reserves of lithium would run dry during our lifetime.

An often-used argument says that by the time, when the electrification of transport has reached this pace adoption, the retired lithium-ion batteries would become the new “mines” for battery materials. Unfortunately, the number of lithium-ion batteries available for recycling by 2030 simply will not be enough to cover the growing demand for lithium. According to the US Department of Energy, 11 million metric tons of Li-ion batteries can be expected to reach the end of their service lives between now and 2030. In other words, in the most optimistic scenario when nearly all of lithium-ion batteries are recycled at the end of their service life, only 231kt of lithium content can be recovered. 

Between now and 2030 only 8% of projected lithium demand

could be covered by materials from recycled batteries.

The bottom line, lithium resources exploration should continue, and the mining industry should receive more encouragement from both, institutional and retail investors. Especially the advancements in sustainable lithium extraction efforts, such as DLE, and development toward cleaner and safer operations could ensure that most of the identified reserves can be indeed developed into economically viable lithium projects.

Strategic investments into advanced mining technologies can decrease the risk of running out of lithium substantially.

 With that in mind, our society should also learn how to manage its appetite for car ownership and in parallel to mining also continue developing sustainable transportation options, such as car-sharing schemes as an alternative to private car use.

Thank you for reading!

The opinions expressed here are my own. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only.