Why we need democratic innovation to help us get there…

Getting to net zero within planetary boundaries will be amongst humanity’s greatest challenges. But the quest will be complicated by unprecedented inequality, declining social mobility and rapidly evolving labour markets. For citizens, particularly those who feel left behind, to support this transition they will need to believe that it will improve their lives. Unfortunately, evidence is emerging that the economic path to net zero could exacerbate short term inequality and unemployment and thereby threaten the social compact required to sustain it.

First, the innovation and intellectual property required to accelerate the transition may concentrate wealth because it is likely to be held by companies and individuals with capital and advanced degrees, not those at the bottom of the economic pyramid. Second, tech-driven green manufacturing is likely to require less labor.? Green steel mills, solar farms, wind turbines and electric vehicles require fewer jobs to operate and/or assemble than their extractive predecessors. Third, even if the transition eventually produces a net gain in green jobs there will be a lag in time and often a change location in which these jobs are created.? These ‘switching costs’ will impose pain on those who lack the skills and mobility to respond to the opportunities created by the new green economy. Fourth, the regulation and pricing required to support the transition (e.g. low emission zones; fuel and carbon taxes, building codes and heating requirements, farming and planning regulations etc.) may impose costs on people who are already falling behind or struggling to stay afloat.

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This social and economic dislocation, compounded by the polarizing and distorting impact of social media, is leading to a ‘greenlash’ and empowering anti-net zero populists, who are likely to prosper during the wave of elections to be held in 2024. Those seeking to implement a ‘Just Transition’ will have to reckon with unprecedented debt levels, geo-political conflict and surging defense spending, low fiscal headroom, disruptions to labour markets driven largely by AI and the negative impact of protectionism on trade.

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The good news is that responsible governments should be able to weather these short-term headwinds if they develop policies that are mindful of current constraints, offset the social and economic pain arising from switching costs and invest in systemic solutions that will generate jobs and more inclusive economies. A good place to start would be a generational investment in green entrepreneurship. In the EU in the last five years, small and medium enterprises created 85% of new jobs. Smart policy starts with citizens. What if we thought of the energy transition as a bottom-up process, built on purpose-driven small businesses? What would it take to create a million green start-ups, and then create a ‘growth escalator’ to support them to scale up and where appropriate go public?? How would we create an ecosystem of collaboration (communities, cities, universities, entrepreneurs, investors, government) where each could learn from the other and help each other flourish? Green entrepreneurship would just be one of many society-wide effort to support the transition.? A national (Re)Skilling Program involving government, the private sector and universities could make reasonable assumptions about the jobs of the future, the industries that need to transform, and how to skill or re-skill employees to fuel this growth.

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As each policy is formulated, we should develop solutions from a deep pool of expertise and produce a durable societal consensus on the multiyear investment that will be required for success. Drawing on democratic innovations such as Citizen Assemblies and Participatory Budgeting, it may be possible to insulate these policies from the hyper-partisan politics that have corroded our politics and discredited governments.? By reinvesting our politics from the bottom up, it may be possible to design a future that restores agency to ordinary citizens and gets us to net zero by being fair and inclusive.

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