Why uncertainty is worse than bad news

What is it that makes the COVID-19 pandemic so hard for us?

Every year 1.35 million people die in road accidents worldwide. In the US alone, around 110 people die every day from a car accident, and every year more than 2 million experience permanent injuries. These are huge numbers but we accepted that driving comes at a risk and therefore it does not create any anxiety for most people. I live in San Diego and I go surfing every now and then. Some people don't want to surf because they are scared of shark attacks even if there is only an average of 16 shark attacks per year in the US, with one fatality every two years. But human imagination is very powerful and can go against us.

The reason why the Coronavirus is so dramatic for all of us is for its uncertainty. We don't really know what is going to happen next. I started reflecting about this a few weeks ago when we did not know how lethal this virus was or how quickly it could spread, let alone how deep the stock market would plunge. Now we know more about it, but we still don't know many important things, and we are starting to see the harsh economic effects that this lock down will have. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there!

A friend of mine told me this morning that her company's CEO just announced a reduction in force of 20 to 50%, and she was nervous about what could happen to her. I tried to rationalize with her that she should focus on what she knew and could influence and let go of what she could not control, as that worry would create anxiety and stress. That could have very negative effects on her health and her behavior, leading to much worse outcomes than being let go of.

But we all know that it is hard to reason when emotions are high (i.e. when our amygdala is hijacking our brain). Human's don't deal well with the unknown. We are trying to predict everything in our lives: where we will work and live, when we will get married and how many children we will have. And with DNA testing, we are now predicting our likelihood of dying from a certain disease... Not knowing is worse than knowing because our brain tends to fantasize, amplifying the potential effects.

This is called rumination. As you see in the image below, there are six different states in which our brain can operate. We should try to be on the upper side as much as we can (the green zone): Reviewing, Reflecting and Planning are positive states, which will lead into learning and better outcomes in general. Being in the present is the healthiest state of all and it gives a break to our monkey mind that likes to analyze everything. The lower side (the red zone) is where you don't want to spend much time, especially regretting the past and getting anxious about a possible future.

Buying toilet paper, stocking cans of non-perishable food, or even buying a gun (yes, there was a significant spike in gun license requests in California!) is not necessarily a sign of anxiety. We should be hoping for the best but planning for the worst, but ruminating about the future is why uncertainty is so dangerous.

 Let′s remember the Denial2Acceptance Cycle: when we get bad news we go through a "valley" of emotions and thoughts between our initial denial and our final acceptance:

Denial2Acceptance Cycle:

Denial: When the true meaning of change hasn't sunk in. It protects us from pain but blocks our natural progression of healing from a loss to moving forward.

Resistance: When we wrestle with letting go of the old ways. We may feel uncertainty, anger, fear, doubt, depression, frustration, and/or anxiety.

Exploration: When we explore new possibilities. In midst of uncertainty, we turn outward and test what can work in the new environment.

Acceptance: When we commit to what’s new and to creating it. We become comfortable and confident, we feel enthusiastic and we are cooperative and productive.

So why uncertainty is worse than the bad news?

There is bad news and good news, and then sometimes there is the uncertainty of not yet knowing which one is going to be, so let's analyze this…

• Known good news is a non-issue and what we all want.
• Known bad news will lead us into the Denial2Acceptance Cycle we have seen above.
• Unknown good news will likely cause rumination & anxiety only to finally learn that we should not have worried so much. We may even have regrets about having lost hours of sleep and negatively affecting our family and friends with our bad mood.
• Unknown bad news is the worst as they can cause rumination & anxiety AND then lead us into the Denial2Acceptance Cycle.

So tap into any wisdom you have accumulated through your life and let go of those negative thoughts. All your spiritual practices and beliefs will help here to stay hold and pull through these tough moments. Bring love back into yourself and displace fear; then you can let go of it and be OK. Remember that the only thing that causes suffering in life is the non-acceptance.

Live the moment and focus on what you can influence and let go of the rest! :)

Happy Covid-19!