Why Uncertainty is More Dangerous Than You Think

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We all face uncertainty every day – in big and small ways. Perhaps because it seems to be everywhere, we may under appreciate how much we would prefer to avoid it – more on that in a minute. In a world where the level of complexity continues to grow, uncertainty follows automatically. The best leaders need to understand human nature related to uncertainty, and how to help reduce it (and its impact).

In well-documented research, Daniel Ellsberg repeatedly found that people will steer away from more uncertain options. It’s called the Ellsberg Paradox. The research proves what we intuitively know: that we don’t love uncertainty. The bigger challenge is that we often underestimate problems it can cause, including:

• Increases in anxiety and stress
• Challenges in making decisions
• Mental health challenges
• Increased fatigue
• Relationship challenges?

Uncertainty is actually worse for us as humans than fear.

Here’s an edited snippet from my upcoming book, Flexible Leadership: Navigating Uncertainty and Lead with Confidence

The research on this question is clear—and might be surprising to you.

One of the ways our response to uncertainty has been researched is through using electric shocks. Let’s imagine ourselves in a study done in 1992. You are placed in one of two groups, and everyone in both groups is informed that they will receive 20 electric shocks, either moderate or strong. (Aren’t you glad we are only imagining this?)

One group receives 20 strong shocks.

The other group receives 17 strong shocks, with 3 moderate shocks randomly interspersed between them.

Which group would you rather be in?

You might like the idea of some moderate shocks. But that group—those who didn’t know how strong the next shock would be—experienced significantly more stress than the other.

How can we as leaders reduce the uncertainty people feel (and therefore sidestep the land mines above)?

Here are five things you can do:

• Pull back the curtain. Let people see what is going on behind closed doors.? While there may be times we can’t yet share information, we often overestimate this. Anytime you can reduce the uncertainty others face, the better off everyone will be.
• Address rumors sooner. Rumors and gossip are like mushrooms, they grow in the dark. The sooner we put things into the light (by pulling back the curtain), the better. But rumors will start, in part, because people are trying to make sense of the world and reduce their uncertainty. When rumors that are false or misguided form, you need to replace them with truth, as quickly as possible.
• Share contingency plans. Often as a leader or leadership team, you are working on plans to address the uncertain twists and turns that might be coming. Share those plans sooner and more broadly. Even better, when you can, give the team the chance to help develop and evaluate those plans.
• Build team confidence. Confidence helps to counter-act some of the challenges uncertainty brings. Even when we don’t know what is happening, if we are confident, we can adjust, adapt and overcome. And uncertainty loses some of its power. Do everything you can to help build team confidence through shared experiences, skill building and coaching.
• Don’t underestimate the danger of uncertainty. This should be clear to you now. Too often leaders assume “people can wait.” But the longer they wait for answers (and reduced uncertainty), the more stressed and anxious they become – and the less productive and healthy too.?

Uncertainty is a fact of life – now more than ever. But that doesn’t mean we can’t work to reduce its impact on us – and our ability to move past and through it. As leaders, we can help our teams do exactly that.

A version of this article was first posted on our blog

What Do You Think?

Share your thoughts in the comments – How is uncertainty impacting you and your team?

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