WHY TRUST TRUMP? - the peoples' interest before interest rates.

Research for years has shown growing feeling of distrust in the media expression of the vox populi and their tendency to represent the Trump voters as "deplorables and garbage", not as families under extreme stress from the central banks placing interest rates ahead of peoples' interests.

After Biden beat Trump last time, the U.S. Surgeon General, Vivek Murthy, issued an advisory on the mental health of the nation’s parents. "Too many families are beset by economic factors beyond their control, including the costs of health care, child care, elder care, housing, and groceries. Financial concerns were a major and increasing source of household tension."

Murthy cited alarming results from a survey by the American Psychological Association, conducted in 2023, in which forty-one per cent of parents said that “most days they are so stressed they cannot function,” forty-eight per cent said that “most days their stress is completely overwhelming,” and fifty per cent said that “when they are stressed, they can’t bring themselves to do anything.”

FAILING TO LISTEN

The accuracy of political polling has come under intense scrutiny in recent years. From the "Miracle Election" in Australia to Brexit polling controversies in the UK and missed forecasts in the USA’s 2016 and 2020 elections, it’s clear that predicting voter behavior is as much art as science. The electoral systems, voter dynamics, and polling practices in each of these democracies present unique challenges.

By examining these three democracies, we gain insights not only into the art of polling but also into the broader dynamics of electoral behavior. As technology evolves and polling methods improve, one thing remains clear: understanding the complexities of each system is key to building public confidence in the democratic process.

• Australia: The 2019 "Miracle Election" saw polling fail to predict Scott Morrison's victory, largely due to miscalculations in preference flows and the underestimation of support in key marginal seats.
• UK: While polling inaccuracies during Brexit were notable, subsequent adjustments have reduced errors. Recent elections have seen minor failures, but pollsters have generally regained public trust.
• USA: The U.S. has experienced significant polling failures, most notably in 2016, when Trump's victory defied expectations, and in 2020, when Republican support in certain states was underestimated until 2024 when a majority took out their baseball bats to deliver a majority call for CHANGE!

These failures highlight the challenges

The behavior of the working-class electorate differs in meaningful ways across these countries, reflecting economic, cultural, and regional divides.

• Australia: Economic divides, particularly around climate policy and labor rights, shape working-class dynamics. These divides create tension within voter bases and complicate predictions.
• UK: In the UK, working-class voters have undergone notable regional shifts, particularly in areas like the "Red Wall." Traditionally loyal to the Labor Party, many of these voters switched allegiance during Brexit, driven by cultural and economic concerns. Pollsters must now account for this shifting landscape.
• USA: In the U.S., cultural divides dominate working-class voting patterns. Rural and urban working-class voters often have starkly different political priorities, further complicating polling. Issues like race, immigration, and gun control create fault lines that are challenging to navigate in polling model.

2. Polling Focus: National vs. Regional Dynamics

The focus of polling varies across the three nations, reflecting their unique electoral landscapes.

• Australia: Polling here emphasises marginal seats—electorates where small swings can change outcomes. National polling provides a broad overview but is insufficient for accurate predictions without granular data from these key seats.
• UK: Polling combines national and regional focuses. While national trends are important, regional shifts, such as those triggered by Brexit, have demonstrated the need for detailed constituency-level insights.
• USA: Polling in the U.S. is the most complex, requiring attention to state-level and national dynamics. Each state’s unique demographic and political makeup means that trends in one region may not translate to others, further complicating predictions.

3. Turnout Predictability: The Backbone of Forecasting

Turnout is a critical variable in polling accuracy, and its predictability varies significantly between these nations.

• Australia: With compulsory voting, turnout is nearly universal, removing much of the uncertainty around who will show up on election day. This makes Australia unique in its ability to achieve relatively stable voter participation rates.
• UK: The UK experiences stable turnout, with participation rates fluctuating minimally between elections. While not as predictable as Australia, this stability provides a solid foundation for pollsters.
• USA: Turnout in the U.S. is highly variable. It is influenced by factors such as voter suppression concerns, engagement efforts, and enthusiasm for specific candidates or issues. Predicting who will vote, especially among historically underrepresented or less consistent voting groups, adds significant uncertainty to polling in the U.S.

4. Diversity: A Double-Edged Sword for Polling

The diversity of the electorate influences how effectively polling can capture voter intentions.

• Australia: While Australia is a multicultural nation, its electorate is less polarised than the U.S., making it easier to capture broad trends.
• UK: The UK has a relatively homogenous electorate, which simplifies some aspects of polling. However, regional differences and cultural shifts, such as those seen in Scotland and Northern Ireland, require nuanced analysis.
• USA: The U.S. has the most diverse electorate, encompassing a wide range of racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups. This diversity, while a strength of the democracy, presents significant challenges for polling. Capturing the intentions of such a varied population requires sophisticated sampling techniques and constant methodological adjustments.

Navigating the Future of Polling

As elections become increasingly contentious and polarised, the need for accurate and transparent polling has never been greater. Each country offers valuable lessons for pollsters. Australia demonstrates the importance of understanding preference flows and engaging disengaged voters. The UK highlights the value of adapting to regional shifts and recovering trust after major events like Brexit. The U.S., with its unparalleled diversity and volatility, underscores the importance of methodological innovation and constant vigilance against bias.